I know the 49ers' defense has been decimated by injuries and suspensions, but they just got ripped apart by two Bears' receivers that could barely run down the field (Marshal and Jeffries nursing leg injuries). Usually the preseason doesn't mean much, but the 49ers struggled during the preseason and struggled against the Bears. I know they won Game 1, but that was more Tony Romo turning the ball over and facing a Cowboy defense that isn't very good. 49ers barely got any pressure on Cutler allowing him to wait on his receivers.
Nice win for the Chargers in their home opener over the defending Champ Seahawks. Offense held the ball for 42:15! You'll win a lot of games keeping the all for that long, especially if the opposing defense has to be on the field in 100 degree temps. Time of Possession was big for the Chargers last year. If they hold the ball, they protect the defense. Chargers led the league in ToP, 10 play drives, and 3rd down conversions last year...when they held the ball, they won.
Rivers to Gates already own the QB-TE TD record at 62...now 65 TDs and counting.
Chargers fans get to see if the money paid to Donald Brown was worth it. Looks like Ryan Mathews may miss significant time (4-5 weeks according to ESPN's NFL Nation). Mathews injured his knee going after a fumble. Chargers made Brown a 3 year, $10 million insurance policy on Mathews.
Now we get to see if Kirk Cousins can really carry the Redskins. Yes, I know the stats favor Cousins and he played great in relief on Sunday, but he was 0-3 last season when he started for RGIII.
Saints are 0-2. Too early to panic? Maybe, but history tells me that teams that start 0-2 only make the playoffs only 16% of the time.
The NFL is sure taking a PR hit lately. You know all about Ray Rice. The Panthers' Greg Hardy and the 49ers' Ray McDonald also charged with domestic violence. Now Adrian Peterson accused of child abuse (another story on USA Today says Peterson had been previously accused of abusing another son). I know reports are saying that Peterson will play next Sunday, but with this new story coming out I don't know how the NFL or the Vikings can afford the negative PR by allow him to play. Radisson already dropped their sponsorship deal with the Vikings. Covergirl dropped their website featuring "fanicures" after one of their pictures got photoshopped and went viral on social media.
The NFC West was the toughest division coming into the season. Two weeks in both the 49ers and Seahawks are 1-1. The Rams have lost key offensive (Sam Bradford, Tavon Austin) and defensive personnel (Chris Long) to injury. The Cardinals are 2-0, but the health of Carson Palmer is in doubt.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Thoughts This Week (NFL Week 1 addition)
According to SI, Antonio Gates restructured his contract to free up $1.5 million in salary cap space for the Chargers. Gates has two years left on the 6-year, $39 million contract he signed in 2010. He was due $5 million this season, but $3 million was converted to a salary bonus. My question is why now? Do the Chargers need to free up money to make a trade? That would be unusual so early in the year, but I can't think of any other reason why this would be done now.
No link for this one...the Ray Rice story is all over the net. All I'm going to say about it is that justice is finally served. That video takes away any shadow of a doubt that anyone may have had.
Monday Night Football: Kinda hate these double headers...luckily I don't live on the East Coast. Chargers 18-17 lost to the Cardinals was so disappointing on many levels. Phillip Rivers wasn't sharp. Players dropped potential first downs and interceptions. Critical mistakes; an interception, blown coverage to hand the Cards 3 points at the half and a botched snap to take the Chargers out of FG range at the end of the game. Defense couldn't step up to make one play in the Cardinals last two drives...Carson Palmer throws only 1 incomplete pass in those two drives (and it was a sure INT that was dropped) and never got sacked. Still Rivers had 2:25 left and 2 timeouts...and it ends on a dropped passed. Yea, I know it was tipped, but Keenan Allen had both hands on the ball and couldn't hold on. Difference between losing teams and winning teams is the winners find a way to make positive plays and limit negative ones...in a 1 point game only a few of those plays would have made the difference.
Bright spots for the Chargers were the two defensive rookies picked 1-2 by the Chargers in the draft. Jason Verrett held his own against the big Arizona receivers. Jerry Attaochu didn't play a lot, but it seemed like every time he was on the field he made an impact on the game. He made great plays in kick coverage, blocked a punt, and got the strip/sack on Palmer. This Chargers may not be great at getting a team ready early in the season, but their first two drafts have produced 4 potential stars (D.J. Fluker, Keenan Allen last year).
A co-worker and I were discussing all these so-so performances. Tom Brady, Nick Foles took a half to finally get going, even Peyton Manning wasn't sharp. Tony Romo looked terrible in the first half. We wondered if it could be that teams aren't preparing enough in the preseason (they're shorter now and teams are afraid their starters will get hurt). Almost none of the starters play any in the last preseason game. Chargers starters at most played a quarter of the "dress rehearsal" 3rd preseason game and only a series in the previous two. No starter that I remember played in the 4th game. Rivers and the Chargers as a team weren't sharp...even Antonio Gates was dropping passes. Would be interesting to find out how many minutes the teams that played well (Seahawks, Falcons/Saints - at least the offenses, Vikings, Lions) played their starters.
Bulldog over at Nothing If Not Random posted his preseason picks and mentioned the stat that 4-5 teams, on average, make the playoffs that didn't make it the previous season...of course that means 4-5 teams that made it last season don't make it back. Call this 1 game overreaction, but could one of those teams be the Patriots? Sooner or later the mighty have to fall. Could it be this year? Lets imagine the Viks and Lions are for real and it's not a 1 game aberration. Pats go to Minnesota next week and play the Lions in Week 12. They also play the Bengals and Broncos at home and have to go to Green Bay and Indy. Lets image they lose all those games...that's 6 losses and still have the rematch against Miami in Week 15. Can the Pats go 9-7 and miss the playoffs? I would say that's a one game overreaction, but if they lose next week in Minnesota...
It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine the Chiefs and Chargers missing the playoffs this year...that would account for the AFC teams. The NFC is a lot tougher to see a team not repeating. Falcons missed the playoffs last year and made a strong case that they'll be in this year...but who would be out? Packers lost in Week 1, but the Seahawks treat most teams that visit Seattle badly. Arizona was a 10-6 team last year and missed post season play, so they are a strong candidate to make it, but again who's out? Could it be the Saints? Saints and Packers are the only playoff teams to lose in Week 1. Before the season started I thought the Panthers would be one of the teams that miss out, but then they go and win a game with their backup QB at the helm. This was the team that everyone said had no WRs or RBs to help Cam Newton.
How many of you fantasy players have put in for Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Hurns?
Lions adopted the Saints offense this year and Week 1 they did a pretty good Saints imitation. That was an impressive offensive showing. Calvin Johnson is...well Calvin Johnson. Seeing him lineup against DBs...the size difference is alarming...and the guy can leap over tall buildings and is faster than a speeding bullet. Now Detroit has Golden Tate and Reggie Bush playing the role of Darren Sproles. If Stafford holds up his end this could finally be the year for the Lions.
When are the Indianapolis Colts going to admit they made a big mistake in acquiring Trent Richardson? The guy runs hard, but looks slow and doesn't change direction very well. Colts seem blindly committed to this guy for some reason.
After week 1, the #1 RB in fantasy football is Knowshon Moreno and will likely be the starting RB in Miami the rest of the season...how many of you predicted that? Please, drop your hands, I know your lying.
I won't go into why, because you know why, but Justin Forsett will be the #1 most picked up player in Fantasy Football this week.
No link for this one...the Ray Rice story is all over the net. All I'm going to say about it is that justice is finally served. That video takes away any shadow of a doubt that anyone may have had.
Monday Night Football: Kinda hate these double headers...luckily I don't live on the East Coast. Chargers 18-17 lost to the Cardinals was so disappointing on many levels. Phillip Rivers wasn't sharp. Players dropped potential first downs and interceptions. Critical mistakes; an interception, blown coverage to hand the Cards 3 points at the half and a botched snap to take the Chargers out of FG range at the end of the game. Defense couldn't step up to make one play in the Cardinals last two drives...Carson Palmer throws only 1 incomplete pass in those two drives (and it was a sure INT that was dropped) and never got sacked. Still Rivers had 2:25 left and 2 timeouts...and it ends on a dropped passed. Yea, I know it was tipped, but Keenan Allen had both hands on the ball and couldn't hold on. Difference between losing teams and winning teams is the winners find a way to make positive plays and limit negative ones...in a 1 point game only a few of those plays would have made the difference.
Bright spots for the Chargers were the two defensive rookies picked 1-2 by the Chargers in the draft. Jason Verrett held his own against the big Arizona receivers. Jerry Attaochu didn't play a lot, but it seemed like every time he was on the field he made an impact on the game. He made great plays in kick coverage, blocked a punt, and got the strip/sack on Palmer. This Chargers may not be great at getting a team ready early in the season, but their first two drafts have produced 4 potential stars (D.J. Fluker, Keenan Allen last year).
A co-worker and I were discussing all these so-so performances. Tom Brady, Nick Foles took a half to finally get going, even Peyton Manning wasn't sharp. Tony Romo looked terrible in the first half. We wondered if it could be that teams aren't preparing enough in the preseason (they're shorter now and teams are afraid their starters will get hurt). Almost none of the starters play any in the last preseason game. Chargers starters at most played a quarter of the "dress rehearsal" 3rd preseason game and only a series in the previous two. No starter that I remember played in the 4th game. Rivers and the Chargers as a team weren't sharp...even Antonio Gates was dropping passes. Would be interesting to find out how many minutes the teams that played well (Seahawks, Falcons/Saints - at least the offenses, Vikings, Lions) played their starters.
Bulldog over at Nothing If Not Random posted his preseason picks and mentioned the stat that 4-5 teams, on average, make the playoffs that didn't make it the previous season...of course that means 4-5 teams that made it last season don't make it back. Call this 1 game overreaction, but could one of those teams be the Patriots? Sooner or later the mighty have to fall. Could it be this year? Lets imagine the Viks and Lions are for real and it's not a 1 game aberration. Pats go to Minnesota next week and play the Lions in Week 12. They also play the Bengals and Broncos at home and have to go to Green Bay and Indy. Lets image they lose all those games...that's 6 losses and still have the rematch against Miami in Week 15. Can the Pats go 9-7 and miss the playoffs? I would say that's a one game overreaction, but if they lose next week in Minnesota...
It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine the Chiefs and Chargers missing the playoffs this year...that would account for the AFC teams. The NFC is a lot tougher to see a team not repeating. Falcons missed the playoffs last year and made a strong case that they'll be in this year...but who would be out? Packers lost in Week 1, but the Seahawks treat most teams that visit Seattle badly. Arizona was a 10-6 team last year and missed post season play, so they are a strong candidate to make it, but again who's out? Could it be the Saints? Saints and Packers are the only playoff teams to lose in Week 1. Before the season started I thought the Panthers would be one of the teams that miss out, but then they go and win a game with their backup QB at the helm. This was the team that everyone said had no WRs or RBs to help Cam Newton.
How many of you fantasy players have put in for Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Hurns?
Lions adopted the Saints offense this year and Week 1 they did a pretty good Saints imitation. That was an impressive offensive showing. Calvin Johnson is...well Calvin Johnson. Seeing him lineup against DBs...the size difference is alarming...and the guy can leap over tall buildings and is faster than a speeding bullet. Now Detroit has Golden Tate and Reggie Bush playing the role of Darren Sproles. If Stafford holds up his end this could finally be the year for the Lions.
When are the Indianapolis Colts going to admit they made a big mistake in acquiring Trent Richardson? The guy runs hard, but looks slow and doesn't change direction very well. Colts seem blindly committed to this guy for some reason.
After week 1, the #1 RB in fantasy football is Knowshon Moreno and will likely be the starting RB in Miami the rest of the season...how many of you predicted that? Please, drop your hands, I know your lying.
I won't go into why, because you know why, but Justin Forsett will be the #1 most picked up player in Fantasy Football this week.
Friday, September 5, 2014
What I Read This Week (NFL Week 1 edition)
Seahawks seem low on this list especially after the beat down they put on the Packers Thursday night. Not really feeling the 49ers after their preseason performance and injuries/suspensions on defense.
The interesting thing for me as a Charger fan was the AFC Championship picks. The Broncos are the favorite at a whopping 42.7%, but of the 4 teams that they gave a shot to beat out the Broncos, one of them was the Chargers (although they only gave them a 1.2% chance). To quote Jim Carrey from Dumb and Dumber, "So you're telling me there is a chance...YEAH!"
The other prediction story I saw posted that caught my attention was on Yahoo Sports. It was about a prediction model called Cortana that Microsoft used to predict 15 out of 16 World Cup matches. If you're interested in the nuts and bolts of how Cortana works, you can read about it here. The predictions are for Week 1. Cortana gave the Seahawks a 74.2% chance of beating the Packers, which was the 2nd highest percentage. Cortana gave the Cardinals, the Chargers Week 1 opponent, a 58.2% chance of winning. That was the 2nd lowest chance of victory. Looking at it a from the other side, that means the Chargers have the 2nd best chance of pulling off a Week 1 upset.
History is on the side of the Chargers, according to an article on ESPN called A Tale of Two Mondays. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals have been so-so on Mondays, but Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been pretty good. Rivers is also used to playing Monday night on the road, having done it 3 of the last 5 seasons.
According to Football Outsiders Defensive Efficiency Ratings, the Chargers were dead last in 2013. That's right, the Chargers had, according to advanced statistics, the worse defensive in the league, and still managed a 9-7 record and a playoff win. Last season, OLBs Dwight Freeney and Melvin Ingram played a total of 8 games combined and 0 games were they were both on the field at the same time. If the duo can stay healthy they will have a big impact on the defense as a whole. Add to that, #1 draft pick CB Jason Verrett and free agent pickup CB Brandon Flowers and they should be much higher on that list this season.
And one time before the season starts...
Thursday, September 4, 2014
San Diego Chargers - Thoughts before the season starts
Search on predictions for the San Diego Chargers and you'll see anywhere from going 10-6 and making the playoffs (ESPN) to being a one hit wonder (Bleacher Report). To be honest, I have no idea how this year's Chargers will do. They were a Jekyll and Hyde team last year...beating the Eagles in Philly, upset the Colts, swept the Chiefs, and split games with the Broncos, but also losing to the Texans, Redskins, and Raiders.
While the big questions are on the defensive side of the ball, there are some on the offensive side as well. Phillip Rivers looks like he's back, but fantasy guru's aren't giving him much love. Rivers is ranked as a QB2 in standard 12-team leagues. I picked him up as a backup in one league that has 14 teams and as the last QB1 that came off the board in another league that has 16 teams. While fantasy has nothing to do with reality, his low ranking shows that many experts aren't sold on Rivers' being able to repeat what he did last season.
I expect big things from the WR position this year. Keenan Allen says he's fully recovered from the knee injury that made teams pass on him in the draft. Allen claimed he wasn't able to run at full speed last year and reports from training camp says Allen is showing a burst that he didn't have before. Not only is Malcolm Floyd back from a neck injury that many thought would end his career, but he is being touted as training camp MVP. Floyd was the Chargers deep threat last season, but that neck injury in Game 2 ended his season. Allen should draw a lot of attention after breaking out last year. Add to that Antonio Gates and a predicted break out year for LaDarius Green...Floyd will get a lot of single coverage.
I'm wondering why the Chargers signed Donald Brown from Indianapolis for 3 years, 10 million. They have to have something planned for him. Remember that Danny Woodhead didn't play much in the preseason last year, but ended up a key piece in the offensive game plan.
New OC Frank Reich plans on doing a version of the K-gun (the offense the Bills ran while Reich was there). The Bills were the first team to run the no-huddle as the main offense and not just in given situations.
Here's the trivia question for you...Why was it called the K-gun? If you said it was named after QB Jim Kelly you would be wrong. It was named after Keith Keller. Keller was a hi-bred TE/FB. Part of the no-huddle strategy is to limit defensive substitutions. NFL substitutions rules state that if the offense makes a substitution, they have to give the defense time to also make a substitution. Keller gave Kelly the ability to call more of the playbook with out changing personnel by being able to lineup at FB or TE.
So what is one of the 1st things the Chargers do in the off season? They pick up David Johnson a hybrid FB/TE. Many people thought the Chargers' would go to a 2TE set, but everyone, including myself figured it would be Gates and Green...now it looks like it will be Johnson and Gates or Green. One of the things I'll be looking for in Week 1 is how often Johnson will be on the field.
While I can't wait to see the offense in action, the Chargers will still be around a .500 team again this season unless the defense gets better.
The big issues were bad corner play and an inability to generate consistent pressure on the QB. A bad combination in the modern NFL passing age. Not surprisingly the Chargers were ranked 29th in defense last season...which makes the Playoff appearance last year even more amazing. You also have to question how the Chargers defense managed to hold the Broncos' record setting offense to their lowest point total of the season (not counting the Super Bowl). The offense was more exceptional than they were being given credit for. They led the league in time of position and 3rd down conversion rate which protected the defense by limiting the other teams offensive possessions.
The Chargers drafted CB Jason Verrett with their 1st pick and picked up Brandon Flowers when the Chiefs released him. While neither played much in the preseason due to nagging injuries, both are reported to be good for the season opener against the Cardinals.
The inability to generate a pass rush had more to do with injuries than lack of ability. OLB Melvin Ingram was lost during the preseason. Dwight Freeney was lost in Game 2. If they can avoid the injury bug this season the pass rush will be markedly better than last season. While it was only preseason, with Freeney at OLB, DT Cory Liuget looked like the disruptive force he was two years ago.
While I don't expect the Chargers to become a top 10 defense, any sort of improvement would go a along ways toward improving on last seasons 9-7 record and both the secondary and pass rush should improve this season barring injuries.
One thing the offense didn't do well at is scoring TDs. Chargers ranked 23rd in Red Zone TD percentage and 28th in TD percentage when goal-to-go. Chargers don't have a true power running game and defenses bracketed Gates in the Red Zone last season. The return of the 6' 5" Floyd will give Rivers another big target. TE/FB Johnson will provide more versatility. Ryan Mathews runs hard and has good speed, but isn't a power back...could Brown become the Red Zone back?
Questions, questions...the answers will start Monday night.
While the big questions are on the defensive side of the ball, there are some on the offensive side as well. Phillip Rivers looks like he's back, but fantasy guru's aren't giving him much love. Rivers is ranked as a QB2 in standard 12-team leagues. I picked him up as a backup in one league that has 14 teams and as the last QB1 that came off the board in another league that has 16 teams. While fantasy has nothing to do with reality, his low ranking shows that many experts aren't sold on Rivers' being able to repeat what he did last season.
I expect big things from the WR position this year. Keenan Allen says he's fully recovered from the knee injury that made teams pass on him in the draft. Allen claimed he wasn't able to run at full speed last year and reports from training camp says Allen is showing a burst that he didn't have before. Not only is Malcolm Floyd back from a neck injury that many thought would end his career, but he is being touted as training camp MVP. Floyd was the Chargers deep threat last season, but that neck injury in Game 2 ended his season. Allen should draw a lot of attention after breaking out last year. Add to that Antonio Gates and a predicted break out year for LaDarius Green...Floyd will get a lot of single coverage.
I'm wondering why the Chargers signed Donald Brown from Indianapolis for 3 years, 10 million. They have to have something planned for him. Remember that Danny Woodhead didn't play much in the preseason last year, but ended up a key piece in the offensive game plan.
New OC Frank Reich plans on doing a version of the K-gun (the offense the Bills ran while Reich was there). The Bills were the first team to run the no-huddle as the main offense and not just in given situations.
Here's the trivia question for you...Why was it called the K-gun? If you said it was named after QB Jim Kelly you would be wrong. It was named after Keith Keller. Keller was a hi-bred TE/FB. Part of the no-huddle strategy is to limit defensive substitutions. NFL substitutions rules state that if the offense makes a substitution, they have to give the defense time to also make a substitution. Keller gave Kelly the ability to call more of the playbook with out changing personnel by being able to lineup at FB or TE.
So what is one of the 1st things the Chargers do in the off season? They pick up David Johnson a hybrid FB/TE. Many people thought the Chargers' would go to a 2TE set, but everyone, including myself figured it would be Gates and Green...now it looks like it will be Johnson and Gates or Green. One of the things I'll be looking for in Week 1 is how often Johnson will be on the field.
While I can't wait to see the offense in action, the Chargers will still be around a .500 team again this season unless the defense gets better.
The big issues were bad corner play and an inability to generate consistent pressure on the QB. A bad combination in the modern NFL passing age. Not surprisingly the Chargers were ranked 29th in defense last season...which makes the Playoff appearance last year even more amazing. You also have to question how the Chargers defense managed to hold the Broncos' record setting offense to their lowest point total of the season (not counting the Super Bowl). The offense was more exceptional than they were being given credit for. They led the league in time of position and 3rd down conversion rate which protected the defense by limiting the other teams offensive possessions.
The Chargers drafted CB Jason Verrett with their 1st pick and picked up Brandon Flowers when the Chiefs released him. While neither played much in the preseason due to nagging injuries, both are reported to be good for the season opener against the Cardinals.
The inability to generate a pass rush had more to do with injuries than lack of ability. OLB Melvin Ingram was lost during the preseason. Dwight Freeney was lost in Game 2. If they can avoid the injury bug this season the pass rush will be markedly better than last season. While it was only preseason, with Freeney at OLB, DT Cory Liuget looked like the disruptive force he was two years ago.
While I don't expect the Chargers to become a top 10 defense, any sort of improvement would go a along ways toward improving on last seasons 9-7 record and both the secondary and pass rush should improve this season barring injuries.
One thing the offense didn't do well at is scoring TDs. Chargers ranked 23rd in Red Zone TD percentage and 28th in TD percentage when goal-to-go. Chargers don't have a true power running game and defenses bracketed Gates in the Red Zone last season. The return of the 6' 5" Floyd will give Rivers another big target. TE/FB Johnson will provide more versatility. Ryan Mathews runs hard and has good speed, but isn't a power back...could Brown become the Red Zone back?
Questions, questions...the answers will start Monday night.
Monday, September 1, 2014
San Antonio Spurs Tribute
I was going to post about the Spurs winning the Championship, but then I ran into this on YouTube...pretty much says it all. Captured the heartbreak of last year, the tentative feelings on making it back to the Finals, and Finally the Joy and amazement on how the Spurs played...all to a pretty good musical score. I especially liked how the music built momentum from Game 3 on. It was like a wave that kept building and couldn't be stopped...sort of like how the Spurs gained more momentum as the series went on.
Better than words...
Better than words...
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