Saturday, September 29, 2018

Battle For Los Angeles and Other NFL Thoughts

Maybe they couldn't use that because of the book and movie, but I like the sound of that better than Fight for LA.

The Rams are stacked. You could say without too much argument that they field the best d-line, best pair of corners (before they got hurt), and the best running back in the league. They had the highest scoring offense in the league last year and then added wide receiver Branden Cooks in the off season. The worse you can say about them is that they lost their FG kicker to injury in Week 2.

I honestly don't know why more sportscasters aren't predicting them to win the Super Bowl. Maybe in an era of controversial broadcasting it's just to obvious. I mean, does anyone have a legitimate argument for why they shouldn't win it all?

No surprise that the Chargers lost 23-35. When I looked at the schedule before the season began I figured there would a good possibility that the Chargers would be 1-2 at this point. I was hoping they could beat the Chiefs and be 2-1, but Patrick Mahomes put an end to that. Figured the Bills was a win and they lose to the Rams.

Over the next 9 games (10 weeks) the Chargers face a series of games where I feel they should win. Divisional games are always tougher and they play the Raiders twice and Broncos in that stretch so I'm thinking they lose one of those (although they should win all three). The toughest game of the 9 game stretch is at Pittsburgh December 2nd. 7-2 should be doable, if not 8-1. That should mean a record of 8-4 or 9-3 with the last 4-games facing a tough stretch against Cincinnati, at KC, Baltimore, at Denver.

Other NFL thoughts...

Baker Mayfield has an arm! His throws are on a line and accurate. You have to wonder why it took the Browns coaching staff so long to let him play. Everyone talking about Mahomes' arm and how far he can fling it, but Mayfield's throws are lasers!  With Josh Gordon in New England and Mayfield under center, Jarvis Landry is going to payoff for those who drafted him in fantasy. I picked the Jets to win this game, which was looking pretty good until Mayfield came into the game.

What in the world happened to the Vikings?! The Bills were the worse team in the AFC and maybe the NFL (Arizona may have a legit case for being the worse). So how can a Super Bowl contender not only lose to Buffalo, but almost get shut out 27-6. Viks scored on a meaningless TD in the 4th and for some reason went for two. Oh sure three TDs and 2-pt. conversions plus a field goal would have tied it...

I think this time the fall of the Patriots is for real. The Lions had given up 78 points in the first two games (Jets, 49ers), but the Pats only managed 10. That's two games in-a-row that they haven't even been competitive. Their only win so far is against the 0-3 Texans.

Fitz-Magic may have lost, but he still threw for 411 yards and 3 TDs. The difference this week...3 ints.





Monday, September 17, 2018

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

Lets get my thoughts on the Chargers out of the way...
It was the Bills, but the Chargers did what they needed to do...at least for a half.

In the first half they had 5 drives, 4 red zone trips, 4 TDs. Up 28-6 at halftime. Then they went to sleep in the 2nd half getting outscored 3-14 for the final 31-20 score.

Ken Wisenhunt added a wrinkle to the Chargers running attack putting in some misdirection plays. He even had RBs Austin Eckler and Melvin Gordon on the field at the same time. Eckler rushed for a career high 77 yards. Gordon's untouched 20 yard TD was off a counter. Look closer and you'll see an unbalanced line with both OTs on the right side (#76 is LT Russell Okung lined up on the far right. #88 is TE Virgil Green lined up at LT). Bills jumped the play thinking it was going to be a jet sweep to the right. 

Does Joey Bosa make that much of a difference? I'm giving Gus Bradley credit for designing some cleverly schemed blitzes involving rookie safety Derwin James who has two sacks and a couple pressures in the first two games, but this team didn't need to blitz last season to put pressure on the QB. Buffalo rookie QB Josh Allen was pretty comfortable in the pocket in the 2nd half despite the Chargers big lead. A situation Bosa and Melvin Ingram fed on last year. Ingram did register 1.5 sacks and the Chargers had 5 total, but watching the game there were too many plays where Allen had all day to throw. Report is that Bosa has a bruised bone in his left foot and his return date is still unknown.

On a more happy note, TE Hunter Henry was seen working out in a knee brace this week. It's been just 4 months since he tore his ACL, but it was reported that he was doing some stop-and-start and change of direction drills. Still too early to say when he'll be back, but the odds of Henry seeing the field this season is getting better.


Patrick Mahomes!
Wow! I understand that he can't possibly keep this pace up. 10 TDs in two games is on a pace to throw 80 TD passes in a season which would shatter Peyton Manning's 55 TD record. If Mahomes averages just 2 TDs the rest of the way he would be at 38. So far any question regarding releasing Alex Smith has been rendered mute.

Fitz-Magic!!
Did anyone start Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 or 2 on their fantasy team? I didn't think so. Back-to-back 400 yard, 4 TD games for Fitz. You also have to give it to him for his post game look after beating Philly 27-21 in week 2. Check it out here.

The Saints defense was supposed to be better this year, but Fitz lit them up. Then he backed it up against the defending champs. He gets to face the Steelers next week who Mahomes just carved up for 6 TDs. If he has another great game do you start Jameis Winston who is expected to be ready for Week 4?

AFC Front runners
The Jaguars were without their top WR (Marqise Lee) and starting RB (Leonard Fournette) and still beat the Pats easily 31-20. Patriots have the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings on the schedule. Right now, I don't see them beating any of those teams. I still think the Pats make the playoffs since the AFC East is pretty weak. While I'll admit it's not smart going against Brady-Bilichick, especially this early in the season, but the Jags took Rob Gronkowski out of the game (2 catches, 15 yards) and Blake Bortles torched the Pats D for 377 yards and 4 TDs.

Announcers Not Knowing the Rules
Some of these guys are ex-players and have also called the game for a long time. So in tribute to the famous words "I didn't know the game could end in a tie," here are three plays where the announcers should have know better.

In the Chargers-Bills game TE Virgil Green lost control of the ball in bounds as he was going out of bounds. Crowd went crazy. Bills challenged. The refs upheld the call on the field, which was Chargers maintaining possession. The announcers watched the slo-mo replay which showed a clear loss of a position by Green before his knee touched out of bounds and claimed the officials made the wrong call. The rule states that if a player touches the ball while out of bounds, the play is dead. One of the smartest plays I ever saw was on a fumble bouncing towards the out of bounds line. Instead of trying to jump on the ball, the player purposely stepped out of bounds and stretched out to touch the ball. His team didn't recover it, but because he was out of bounds and touched the ball the play was dead and they retained possession. Same thing here. Even though Green lost possession he still had contact with the ball when his knee hit out of bounds.

In the same game, the Bills punt returner muffed a punt. A scramble for the ball caused it to go into the end zone where the Bills recovered. Announcers said it should have been a safety. The refs called it correctly as a touch back with the Bills getting the ball at the 20. A muffed punt is not a fumble (you have to gain possession for it to be a fumble) and thus the recovery in the end zone is a touch back. Now had the Chargers recovered it would have been a TD because the ball was touched by the receiving team first.

During the Chiefs-Steelers game, Big Ben threw a pass while crossing the line of scrimmage. Announcers said it should have been called back because the ball had crossed the line. The rule states that the passer has to be across the line of scrimmage for it to be an illegal forward pass. That's all of the passer. If even his foot is behind the line it's a legal forward pass.


NFLs New Roughing the Passer Rule 
Rule 12, Section 1, Article 13 (2)
A rushing defender is prohibited from committing such intimidating and punishing acts as “stuffing” a
passer into the ground or unnecessarily wrestling or driving him down after the passer has thrown the ball, even if the rusher makes his initial contact with the passer within the one-step limitation provided for in (1) above. When tackling a passer who is in a defenseless posture (e.g., during or just after throwing a pass), a defensive player must not unnecessarily or violently throw him down and land on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight. Instead, the defensive player must strive to wrap up or cradle the passer with the defensive player’s arms.
So what did Clay Mathews do that violated this rule? Mathews didn't lift Cousins, he grabbed him with one arm and took him down. He didn't lift him. He didn't drive him into the ground. In fact, Mathews put his free arm down to keep from putting his full weight on Cousins. He didn't "Burp" him...whatever the definition of that is. I'm guessing that's when the defender wraps his arms around the QB and lifts him off the ground before slamming him to the turf, but that sounds more like the Heimlich then a Burp. I'm not going to say it definitively cost GB the win...Diggs still has to make the TD catch and 2 pt conversion...but I don't know what else Mathews can do to let up on that play. 


Monday, September 10, 2018

Deja Vu All Over Again

Different year, same story.

It started with the news that DE Joey Bosa would be out with a foot injury. Then the big plays from KC courtesy of WR Tyreek Hill. Right off the bat he returns a punt 91 yards. On the Chief's 2nd possession he takes a slant 58 yards to put the Chargers down 3-14. Hill had scored on long TDs in the first quarter of both games last season.

Chargers claw back into the game making it 12-17 at half, but just as the two games last year, Phillip Rivers throws a pick that kills a deep drive into Chiefs territory and JJ Jones fumbles a punt return to gift the Chiefs a goal-to-go inside the 5. Score 20-38 with 10 minutes to go and it's all but over.

Kinda-shoulda-woulda. Chargers WRs outright drop four big passes, three in the first half. One was dropped by Tyrell Williams in the end zone. Three dropped by Travis Benjamin. The first a possible TD. The 2nd could have set up a late FG before half. The 3rd in the end zone that would have made it a 3 point game with 1:45 left. Fittingly, Caleb Sturgis missed the ensuing FG that probably wouldn't have mattered, but would have at least kept hope alive if the Chargers could pull off the onside kick.

Even as a Charger fan you have to love Andy Reeds play calling. If your team has a player that is very aggressive Reed will see it on film and find a way to take advantage of it. Two of Patrick Mahomes TDs came from shovel passes that took advantage of hard inside rushes from DE Melvin Ingram.

It's only one game, but it was as big as a Week 1 game could be. The Chiefs have the Chargers number and until they can get over that the Division will be belong to KC.

Thursday, September 6, 2018

NFL Week 1 is Finally Here!

Watching Falcons - Eagles and thought it would be a good time to type out a few thoughts.

In what amounts to an 11th hour signing, Antonio Gates is back with a 1 year deal to make it 16 seasons with the Chargers. Now they can add "Win for Antonio" as another motivation. Gates obviously doesn't need the preseason to learn the offense, but there is a question about conditioning. Did he stay in shape or did he go into retirement mode? Still it's great to see him back if nothing else to see if the Chargers can rally around Gates before he hangs up the cleats for good.

Along with Gates, the Chargers' added ex-Falcon LB Emmanuel Ellerbee and ex-Chief DT T.Y. McGill. I don't know anything about either player besides the fact that they didn't make the 53-man roster of their respective former teams. Buffalo and Philly also put in waiver requests for McGill, so that at least tells me that the Chargers weren't the only ones that thought he could improve their roster. Chargers are also thin at DT with Justin Jones and Darius Philon nursing minor injuries and Corey Liuget suspended for the first 4 games .

That meant three players had to be released. Those were QB Cardale Jones, LB Hayes Pullard, and RB Justin Jackson. Jones and Jackson passed waivers and was added to the practice squad. Pullard remains unsigned.

I have a lot of anxiety about this opening game. Despite the hype surrounding the Chargers the truth about them is that they lost all 5 games last year against teams that ended the season with 10 or more wins. The 9 wins came from the Giants, Raiders (twice), Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Redskins, Browns, and Jets. Not exactly against the crop of the NFL.

On the encouraging side, three of the seven loses were close games against last seasons Super Bowl contestants Philly 24-26 and Pats 13-21, and AFC losers, the Jags in OT 17-20. Close, but still losses. Two other loses came during the 0-4 start on botched FG attempts against the Broncos and Dolphins.

Also, the Chiefs swept the Chargers 24-10 in KC and 30-10 at home. Whatever the Chiefs have on Phillip Rivers it's real. In the two games Rivers was 40-73 (54.8%) and 6 interceptions. This in a season were Rivers completed 62.6% of his passes and threw just 10 ints.

The Chiefs defense lost CB Marcus Peters who had 3 of Rivers' picks, but the defense wasn't very good last year either and the Chiefs managed to win the division. The big change is QB Pat Mahomes replacing Alex Smith. Smith had a career year last season, but Mahomes is more mobile and has a stronger arm. Mahomes is surrounded by play makers. Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest recievers in the league. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing. Travis Kelce is the 2nd best TE in the league. The Chiefs also added WR Sammy Watkins.

I believe rattling Mahomes is going to be the key to winning this game. If Mahomes gets comfortable and starts making plays, at best the Chargers will have to win a shootout. At worse, with the Chiefs having Rivers number, Chargers get blown out. Of course, rattling Mahomes goes hand-in-hand with keeping Hunt in check. Despite the lopsided scores the Chargers were trailing just 7-14 at half in the 1st game and actually were up 13-10 at half in the 2nd. Hunt broke a 69 yd. TD in the 4th to put game 1 away and had 206 combined yards and 2 TDs in game 2. Smith also hit Hill with long TDs for 1st quarter scores in both games. It's not exactly a revelation to say that the Chargers defense needs to limit the big plays and make Mahomes orchestrate long drives and trust that he will eventually make a mistake. After all this is only Mahomes 2nd NFL start.

To allow the defense to play the bend-not-break strategy, Rivers has to overcome whatever it is the Chiefs have on him. Tossing 3 picks in any game isn't going to end in many wins, let alone against an explosive offense and two-time division champs. Also getting the lead would help put the pressure on Mahomes. If Melvin Gordon, behind an improved o-line, can generate a consistent running game that would also help. It's always a plus to win the time of possession battle against a team with an explosive offense. Gordon has one of the top yards after contact averages in the league...problem is, contact is more often than not happening behind or at the line of scrimmage. The addition of C Mike Pouncey and LG Dan Feeney in his 2nd year should yield better blocking. For what it's worth, LT Russell Okung graded out as the best run blocker in the preseason by Pro Football Focus. How all this shakes out when the real games start is yet to be seen.

I can't imagine the pressure on Kaleb Sturgis if this game comes down to a FG in the waning seconds. I'm hoping the Chargers can somehow break the KC curse (8 straight loses) and find a way to win it convincingly. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Saturday, September 1, 2018

Chargers 53

My thoughts on the Chargers 53-player roster to start the season.

For me, QB Cardale Jones making the cut was the biggest surprise. Jones didn't play well during the preseason and I didn't think the Chargers would go with three QBs. Anthony Lynn brought Jones over from Buffalo after Lynn took over as Head Coach of the Chargers last season. All I can figure is that Lynn isn't ready to give up on Jones just yet.

You just gotta root for the undrafted free agents that make the team. Chargers have an obscure record of 22 straight seasons with at least one UFA making the team. This year three made it.

RB Detrez Newsome. I wrote about Newsome in my last Chargers post. The way he played during the preseason there was no way he could be cut. Newsome won't get many touches during the season with RBs Melvin Gordon, Austin Eckler, and 7th round pick Justin Jackson also on the team, but he's proven he can carry the load should Gordon suffer an injury (42 carries, 159 yds, 2 TDs in the preseason). This is an interesting group with Eckler and Jackson adding big play capabilities.

CB Brandon Facyson just played well. At 6'2" 197 lbs he's a big corner. Getting the chance with Jason Verrett's season ending injury, Facyson just played solid corner whenever he was in the game. Chargers are keeping seven CBs and even without Varrett, this is a very talented group.

WR JJ Jones made the team as a return specialist. He didn't see the field much as a WR, but averaged 12.6 yds on seven punt returns  (including a 72 yd. TD) and averaged 22.8 yards on six kick off returns. At 5'10" 172, Jones is one of those quick guys with break away speed that is a threat to break one anytime. Travis Benjamin returned punts last season and it's yet to be seen if Jones will take over those duties or just return kick offs.

Other than that it was pretty much what everyone expected.

Despite rumors of bringing TE Antonio Gates back, Chargers stuck with former Bronco Virgil Green and Sean Culkin who was the best of rest during the preseason. I still found it strange that they signed Je'Ron Hamm after Culkin played well in the first preseason game. Hamm didn't seem to make any impact.

K Caleb Sturgis is the guy with all the pressure on him. With the Chargers kicking woes last season being given as one of the major reason for the team not making the playoffs the spot light will be pointed directly on Sturgis on every kick. I can't imagine how tense it will be when he has to attempt his first game winning kick.

Bring on the Chiefs, I can't wait for the season to start!