Super Blow Out. How do you see Manning now?

Of all the scenarios I thought would play out in this game, I felt the least likely would have been a Seahawks blowout of the Broncos. Did I underestimate the Seahawk defense? Maybe. I did believe they were good, best in football this year, but we were talking about the most prolific offense in NFL history playing in an era where all the rules favor the offense.

I really didn't care who won this game...as the saying goes, "I had no dog in this fight."  As a Charger fan my beef is with Eli not Peyton...even though Peyton is a Bronco now...and even though I would choose Brady over Manning in the great, who's better debate, it's not like I'm saying Peyton sucks. On the contrary, the fact that you mention Peyton in an argument with Brady is because he is that good considering those are more or less considered the best QBs in the league right now. In any event, Peyton will be a first ballet HoFer and go down as one of the best of all time despite this 43-8Superbowl loss.

That being said, I think his legacy is tarnished a bit...again not saying he's not great, he is, but when you start to look at performances in signature games, Peyton doesn't live up to his own high standards. Even the year he took the Colts to a Superbowl victory he threw 7 interceptions and 3 TDs in the post season.  The Colts' defense really saved them that season, wining the Wildcard game 23-8 against the Chiefs despite Manning throwing 1TD and 3 INTs. He won the MVP for the Superbowl, but his stat line wasn't very MVP-like...25-38, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.  Good, but not great. In the Saints Superbowl, the Saints came back to win after trailing 6-10 at the half. That year, Manning had Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, and Reggie Wayne...and don't say they didn't have a good defense, because neither did the Saints. Everyone expected a shootout, but the Saints won going away 31-17 aided by a Manning 4th quarter interception that was returned for a TD.

Back to the this years Superbowl...the Seahawks did match up with the Broncos the way no other team can. They played man on both receivers (with a safety over the top) and played zone underneath. The speed of their safeties and linebackers were key to stopping the Broncos short passing game.  Broncos lived all year on short passes on crossing routes and off picks.  Picks didn't work against the under zone, because the defender didn't have to stay with one WR. Plays where Bronco receivers took those short passes and turned them into decent gains, if not big plays, those same routes against the Seahawks resulted in <5 yards. Also the size of the Seahawks' DBs played a big part. The other Bronco staple was the WR screen out of a bunch formation.  Seahawk DBs constantly ran through those WR blocks to make stops. 

With the short passing game ineffective, Peyton had to hold the ball a little longer to go down field...and the Seahawk CBs played the outside WRs tight. That gave the pass rush time to get to Peyton.  Normally, Peyton would start checking down to running plays, but against the Seahawks front seven that wasn't effective either.  That was another key, allowing the Seahawks to keep one safety deep. 

Bottomline, the Seahawks were just a more physical team and the Broncos didn't have an answer for that.  Manning couldn't make enough plays under duress and nobody else could will the team to step up to match the Seahawks physically (not even Demaryius Thomas' 13 catches, 118 yds, 1TD). 

Sure, you can't give Manning all the blame, but that street goes both ways. Manning was being hailed as the greatest during the season, but he did have a lot of weapons and a good running game.  The defense wasn't great, but they stepped up when they had too.  I didn't hear too many people talking about their injuries on defense when they shut down the Patriots in the AFC Championship game and the defense played great in the first half keeping the Seahawks out of the end zone twice after the safety and Manning threw his first pick (score was just 8-0 at that point).  Also, I don't know how many times I heard "I want Peyton to win a ring" this past two weeks, like their wasn't 52 other guys on the team.  So although it isn't fair to put all the blame on Manning, he does get most of the accolades when things are going well. 

Maybe not fair, but I think this ends the debate on Peyton Manning being the best of all-time. He'll be like Brett Favre, have all the passing records, but unless you're a Favre/Packer fan, than he doesn't enter in the discussion of NFL's best ever. 

Super Bowl...

I just read Bulldogs post on the Super Bowl over at Noting If Not Random...yea I know, the Super Bowl was on February 3rd and it's the 15th...but I'm not the only one in the late category.  Did a Google News Search on "Super Bowl" and their were stories posted on the 13th. 

It was a very entertaining game....at least after the black out and it played out the way it did...mind you I didn't expect the Ravens to kill the 49ers in the first half and then the 49ers making a comeback and falling 5 yards short of winning the game (even thought that was the 49ers MO lately)...but I thought it would be the little stuff that would eventually doom the Niners and for the most part, it was.

The first 3 drives of the game...

49ers first play is a 20 yard completion, but they are flagged for an illegal formation.  Result: 3 and out.

Ravens first position,  a 49ers offside on 3rd and 9 gives the Ravens a 2nd chance to keep the drive going.  Result:  TD Ravens.

Ensuing 49ers drive, Kaepernick on a scramble overthrows an open Crabtree in the end zone:  Result:  FG 49ers.

None of those 49er mistakes were big ones, but at the least it could have been a 7-3 49ers lead and possibly 14-0 49ers.  One big 49er mistake of the half, the James fumble, ended up costing them another 7 points.  The other big mistake, the Kaepernick interception, ended up not costing them because the Ravens faked a field goal on a 3rd and 9.  I'll put that in the "more guts than brains" category.  Then the 49ers made the mistake I definitely expected to see, because their safeties were their week link on defense and the Ravens liked to throw deep....a safety bit on a double move and left Jacoby Jones wide open for a 56 yard score.  It could have easily been a 17-13 game at halftime and it would have been 24-13 after Jones kickoff return for a TD.  Instead the score was 28-6.

Then the blackout.

Super Sunday Thoughts/Predicition

I have to say that I have been pleasantly surprised by the lack of frivolous Super Bowl stuff that has been (or should I say that hasn't been) reported on.  Outside of the Ray Lewis Antler Spray accusation and whether Beyonce will lip sync the half time show there hasn't been any other stories that aren't related to the game.  I haven't even heard too much on the fact that there are actually three Harbaugh's involved in Sunday's game.  Jay Harbaugh, Jim's son and therefore John's nephew, is a coaching intern for the Ravens.  Jay will have one of the coolest seats of any spectator Sunday.  He'll be in the booth with the Ravens offensive coaches....wouldn't be great to hear those guys discussing strategy during the game. 

My take on the Brother vs. Brother angle...it has to effect the game in some way.  I know if I was competing against my brother I would want to win...bad, but at the same time I wouldn't want to embarrass him either.  I would think he would feel the same way.  For instance, if I somehow was up 14-0, I think I would lean toward the conservative side so as not to let the score get too out of hand.  It would be a tough balance between protecting the lead and not wanting to run up the score.  Would that cause me to leave the window for a possible comeback open longer?  I think it would.

If anything, there isn't enough SB coverage out there.  Go to Google news and click on "Sports."  Sure, the top story is a Super Bowl one, but for the Friday before the big game I would have expected the majority of stories on the page SB related.  Of the 14 stories on the page, only 2 are directly related to the SB.  There's another on New Orleans, but it's about the cities comeback, so it's indirectly related.  I just did a search on "Super Bowl" on Google News and the top story is one about hating SB parties...posted 5 hours ago. 

It's been interesting to see the sports predictions on this Super Bowl.  The majority are picking the 49ers.  Most of those are the "stats" guys.  They are the ones that see that the 49ers are clearly the better team on paper...and for the most part they look the part too.  But the sportscasters that pick with their gut (of note, both Mikes of Mike-n-Mike in the Morning and Steven A Smith) are picking the Ravens.  The What If Sports simulation had the 49ers winnning 55.4% of the time with an average score of 20-18.  That's pretty close for a team (the 49ers) that is viewed to be statistically better in almost every category. 

Personally, I think the Ravens will win.  It's more of a "what I've seen lately" thing with me.  Colin Kaepernick has been great in the playoffs, but Joe Flacco has been pretty good himself.  I know Flacco has the reputation of a bomber, but check what he did against the Pats in the AFCC game.  21-36, 240 YDS, 3 TDS, 0 INTS.  That's not the stat line of a "I can only throw deep" QB....that's very efficient, almost Bradyesque.  Flacco hasn't thrown an INT all playoffs and was cool under pressure in Denver.  While many would give the 49ers the QB edge, in my book, the QBs are pretty equal and cancel each other out. 

I know the 49ers' defense is seen as the more dominate one, considering how the Ravens' defense faltered during the season I can't fault that line of thinking.  But check the playoff scores.  The Ravens allowed 9, 35, 13 in their 3 games...the last against the highest scoring team in the league in the Pats (and Denver was #2).  The 49ers allowed 35 and 24.  Yea, I know Packers and Falcons, but still the Ravens average ppg allowed is less despite facing the #1, #2 offenses in the league.  Remember also that the Pack-49ers game was a shoot out and the 49ers had to come back from 2 TDs down to beat Atlanta.  While big props has to go to Kaepernick and the offense, it's not exactly a great resume for the defense.  In the playoffs, the Ravens have played better defensively. 

I think the Ravens will make the least mistakes and that's why they'll win.  I'm not necessarily talking turnovers.  Maybe the 49ers defense makes some coverage mistakes allowing Flacco to get a deep touch down or misses an assignment allowing the Ravens to keep a drive going.  Maybe Kap misreads a defense and misses an open WR on a cruicial 3rd down and the drive stalls. Maybe the safeties concentrate too much on not letting Flacco beat them deep and Ray Rice has a lot of open space to break a few big ones.  That kind of mistakes.  From what I've seen in the playoffs, the Ravens have taken advantage of those kind of defenses lapses and haven't made the same lapses with their defense.  Yes, they gave up 35 against Denver, but if you watched that game it was more Manning being efficient than the defense allowing big plays...and Manning threw two INTS, the 2nd setting up the winning score. 

The one thing that I believe can change what I wrote in the last paragraph is the 49ers offensive line.  If they just dominate the line of scrimmage (and they are considered the best o-line in the league) then the 49ers could control the game and cut down on those mistakes.  That means Gore has a big game and Kap has all the time in the world to make the right reads, reducing the possibility of mistakes.  It also will lessen the amount of offensive possessions by the Ravens, thus reducing the 49ers' chances of blowing a coverage.

It still may come down to an David Akers FG though...and I think he misses it.