What I Read This Week (NFL Week 1 edition)

Business Insider (of all the webpages) posted a story on Super Bowl probability. What was interesting was that according to the experts, there were only 7 teams that had a shot at winning the Super Bowl. Broncos were the overwhelming favorite at 26.8%, followed by the Saints (19.5%), then the 49ers, Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, and Eagles.

Seahawks seem low on this list especially after the beat down they put on the Packers Thursday night. Not really feeling the 49ers after their preseason performance and injuries/suspensions on defense.

The interesting thing for me as a Charger fan was the AFC Championship picks. The Broncos are the favorite at a whopping 42.7%, but of the 4 teams that they gave a shot to beat out the Broncos, one of them was the Chargers (although they only gave them a 1.2% chance). To quote Jim Carrey from Dumb and Dumber, "So you're telling me there is a chance...YEAH!"

The other prediction story I saw posted that caught my attention was on Yahoo Sports. It was about a prediction model called Cortana that Microsoft used to predict 15 out of 16 World Cup matches. If you're interested in the nuts and bolts of how Cortana works, you can read about it here. The predictions are for Week 1. Cortana gave the Seahawks a 74.2% chance of beating the Packers, which was the 2nd highest percentage. Cortana gave the Cardinals, the Chargers Week 1 opponent, a 58.2% chance of winning. That was the 2nd lowest chance of victory. Looking at it a from the other side, that means the Chargers have the 2nd best chance of pulling off a Week 1 upset.

History is on the side of the Chargers, according to an article on ESPN called A Tale of Two Mondays. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals have been so-so on Mondays, but Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been pretty good. Rivers is also used to playing Monday night on the road, having done it 3 of the last 5 seasons.


According to Football Outsiders Defensive Efficiency Ratings, the Chargers were dead last in 2013. That's right, the Chargers had, according to advanced statistics, the worse defensive in the league, and still managed a 9-7 record and a playoff win. Last season, OLBs Dwight Freeney and Melvin Ingram played a total of 8 games combined and 0 games were they were both on the field at the same time. If the duo can stay healthy they will have a big impact on the defense as a whole. Add to that, #1 draft pick CB Jason Verrett and free agent pickup CB Brandon Flowers and they should be much higher on that list this season.

And one time before the season starts...