Friday, December 28, 2018

Week 16 - Opportunity Lost

If the Chargers fail to reach to Super Bowl this year, they will look back on Week 15 and wonder what might have been.

All the credit goes to the Ravens. They did exactly what they needed to do, holding the Chargers to 5 drives, 2 first downs, 72 total yards, an interception in the first half and owned time-of-possession 19:54 to 10.06. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense doing their bend but don't break thing, holding the Ravens to 6 points despite giving up 195 yards and 3 trips into the Red Zone in the 1st half.

Then the Chargers got the break they needed, forcing a turnover on the Ravens first possession of the 2nd half. The offense finally gets into the end zone, but unfortunately the Ravens offense gets their one big play of the game and answer with a TD of their own on a 68 yard TD from Lamar Jackson to TE Mark Andrews.

It was all setup for Phillip Rivers to pull off the comeback again. It all sounded familiar. 4:46 left in the game. Chargers punt and the defense has to get a quick stop to give the offense one last chance. The defense follows the script of the last two Chargers big wins over the Steelers and Chiefs. They stuff two Raven running plays and on 3rd down sack Jackson to force the punt.

Next the special team does their part. Desmond King, returns the punt 24 yards to the Ravens 39. It's all setup, down 10-16, 3 minutes to go, only 39 yards for the game winning TD, and still 2 timeouts. It should have been easier than Pittsburgh or KC. Unfortunately, Antonio Gates makes a catch for 11 yards and fumbles. Ravens recover and take it the house to seal the win 22-10.

With a win over the Ravens, the Chargers would have awaken Monday morning with the #1 seed in the AFC. Instead they enter Week 17 with only a glimmer of hope placed on a Raiders win over the Chiefs in KC. As it looks right now, the Charges will be visiting Baltimore for a rematch next weekend.

Thoughts on the rest of the Week 16...

 Chiefs have now lost 2-in-a-row. I would say that teams are figuring out the Chiefs offense, but they put up 31 points against a good defense in the Seahawks. Mahomes played another clean game, going 23-40, 273 yards, 3 TDs, 0 int. This was the first game that the Chiefs trailed for the majority of the contest, taking a brief 10-7 lead early in the 2nd quarter, but the Seahawks quickly answered to take the lead back, 14-10 and didn't trail for the rest of the game.

Aarond Donald leading the NFL in sacks as a Defensive Tackle is historic in itself, but with 19.5 sacks he has a shot at the all-time record of 22.5 against the 49ers.

Tight End Travis Kelce only needs 54 yards to break Rob Gronkowski's single season record of 1328 receiving yards for a TE. Chasing them both is SF TE George Kittle, who has 1228 receiving yards. With the Chiefs playing the Raiders and the 49ers playing the Rams I can see a scenario where the Chiefs are blowing out the Raiders and sit Kelce right after he sets the record. The 49ers will likely have to play catch up and Kittle's is capable of lighting it up. Kittles put up 210 yards against the Broncos in Week 13. Would Reid put Kelce back in if they find out Kittles is getting close?

Everyone is back on the Patriots bandwagon now that they're the #2 seed, but I still don't think this version of the Patriots can make a serious run at the Super Bowl.

Article on Bleacher Report by rules analysis Mike Pereira who's name NFL fans should be familiar  with, The Game is Over Officiated. All I have to say about that is...DUH! I don't blame the refs and agree with Pereira who comments in the article "...that officials are simply doing what they're instructed by the league..." The rules committee was originally put together to protect the fairness of the game. Now the rules are geared to favor the offense. At least for me, many of these games have not been fun to watch despite the scoreboard barrage. High scoring shoot outs used to be that one or two great presents you got in an NFL season, now they're just a gift that you return to the store because you received a half a dozen of them.


Monday, December 17, 2018

Week 15 - Finally

I'll get this out of the way...it was a terribly officiated game, but it wasn't as one sided as Chiefs' fans have been declaring (I'll get to that later) and as I have said many times in close Charger loses, yea the call could have gone another way, but there were just as many other reasons for losing the game.

For some reason the Chiefs just have Philip Rivers number. Including Thursday, he's been picked 8 times this year and 3 have come in the two KC games. In 2017, Rivers was picked 10 times and 6 were by the Chiefs. I guess the silver lining is that he's cut the int% vs the Chiefs in half. Despite the two extra possessions, the Chiefs only had 9 total drives for the game. Despite losing the turnover battle 0-2, the Chargers won time of possession 33:16 to 26:44 and total yards 407 to 294. Chargers only punted twice.

In the last Chiefs TD drive in which they used up almost 8 minutes and took a 28-14 lead, there were two terrible calls against the Chargers that kept the drive going. On the first, WR Tyrek Hill runs into LB Jatavis Brown, who had his hands out to his sides, pretty much signally "I'm not holding him." It looks bad because Hill is so much smaller than Brown so Brown gets flagged. Worse was the holding call on Desmond King. He didn't grab Kelce's jersey, didn't turn him, didn't impede him in any way. It was 3rd and 10, so the Chiefs would have had to punt with the score still 14-21. Instead they get the first down and end up going up 14-28. I can come up with a few more...so yea, not as lopsided as Chiefs fans felt.

I understand though. Although I wouldn't blame the loss totally on the call, that last pass interference call on Mike Williams was pretty ticky-tack. I'll make a basketball analogy...when a defender swipes at a player taking a shot, the refs are going to call a foul 9 times out of 10 whether there's contact or not. In this case, the Chiefs DB swiped at Mike Williams arm before the ball got there...and while I agree it shouldn't have been called especially since Williams had no chance to catch that ball unless he one handed it so he had no intention of reaching up with the other hand...refs are going call that swipe to the arm 9 out of 10 times. I don't like it, but that's the way the NFL is now.

Oh and there's that helmet-to-helmet hit on Rivers. Again, let me make myself clear that I hate many of the new rules and this is one of them. The defender has no control over what the runner does with his head. The Chiefs defender went low and attempted to make the tackle with his right shoulder. Philip slid and his head went to the defenders left side. While I disagree with the rule, at the same time, I've seen much less helmet contact get called especially when the QB is involved. Tell me a Chiefs fan wouldn't be upset at the no call if that was Mahomes.

What I was really upset about was that Rivers was complaining to the refs and the clock was running. It went down from 28 seconds to 13 before the Chargers used their last timeout, which also was unnecessary and took away any pass in the middle that wasn't a TD.

As for going for two, I've said it here before that I would take my chances trying to score from 2-and-a-half yards out over kicking and going into OT. Heck, even the kick isn't a guarantee and that statement has nothing to do with the Chargers kicking woes. Many prominent kickers have missed extra points since it was moved back. In fact, Mike Badgley has been money since joining the Charges, hitting 14-15 (93.3%) in FGs and 23-24 (95.8%) in extra points.

When the Chargers got the ball back for the last drive I started to think about whether they should go for two should they score. I don't know if Anthony Lynn new the numbers going in or whether he asked one of his assistants to look it up...or maybe he went on his gut feeling, but this season, the Chargers had converted on 5-7 of their two-point attempts and Chiefs opponents were successful on 4-5 attempts. Add to that, the probability of the Chiefs scoring if they win the coin toss and I felt going for two was a no brainier.

Chargers still need help to win the division so I'm a big Seattle Seahawk fan this week.

Thoughts on the rest of Week 15

Chargers did two things with the win...1st they accomplished the first goal of making the playoffs. 2nd, in at least locking up one of the Wild Card spots, that puts the four remaining 7-6 teams in a winner take all dog fight. One of those four happen to be the Ravens which is the Chargers' next opponent. It's said that the most dangerous animal is a cornered one and if the Chargers want to keep their hopes of winning the Division alive they have to beat a desperate Ravens team next week.

Sportscasters have to start admitting this is not the same old Pats. 13 penalties, many of them pre-snap. Pats are supposed to be too well coached, too disciplined for that. Late in the 4th quarter, the defense gets the big interception and Tom Brady drives them down into the Red Zone only to throw one up for grabs. Brady gets another chance. Plenty of time, 2:30, but not this year. Two back-to-back drives into the Red Zone for Brady, no points.

Cross Miami off the list of AFC Wild Card contenders. Dolphins get routed and with the Ravens, Titans, and Colts winning they may still be mathematically in it, but with 3 teams to leapfrog for 1 playoff spot, the odds aren't good.

Defense isn't dead in the NFL yet. Both the Colts and Titans keep their playoff hopes alive by shutting out the Cowboys and Giants. Cowboys are the puzzling one as they were one of the hottest teams.

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

NFL Week 14 thoughts - Thusday matters, but not that much

Chargers came out hot scoring on their first two drives, then suddenly went flat. Opposite of the last two games, where they came out flat and then woke up. Chargers gained 150 yards and scored two TDs in those first two drives. They didn't score another TD the rest of the game and ended with 288 total yards. Statistically, it was Phillip Rivers worse game of the season.

Kicker Michael Badgley saved the game for the Chargers. Yes, you read that right, a kicker was the Chargers savior instead of the goat. Badgley went 4-4 in FGs for the Chargers last 12 points including a 49 yarder and francise record 59 yarder in the last play of the first half.

It's encouraging to see the Chargers win in different ways each week, it's discouraging that they weren't able to put together a complete game this late in the season against a team that was missing their starting QB and #1 WR.

It would be tough to prepare for everything the Chiefs can/will throw at you offensively in a full week. Chargers have to do it in a short week plus losing a day to travel.

Ravens played the Chiefs the best I've seen so far. Raven's are unique in that they play a lot of 3 safety with two of the three often lining up on the line of scrimmage. They make the offense try to figure out who's rushing and who's dropping back into coverage. They blitz a lot, sending a LB or one of the Safeties (or a combination of both). Saw Mahomes get happy feet for the first time, running out of the pocket even though everyone was blocked. Raven's held the Chiefs to 17 points up until the last drive. Mahomes still led the Chiefs to a game tying TD and eventual win in OT. He converted two 4th downs including a 4th and 9th with a 48 yard strike to Tyrek Hill scrambling to the right and throwing deep back over the middle...something you are never supposed to do in the NFL.

Chargers Safety Derwin James has lined up in every defensive position except Middle Linebacker and Nose Tackle. S Adrian Phillips lines up as the weak side LB on Nickle and Dime packages. But the Chargers don't blitz very often. 22.5 of their 32 sacks have come from the D-line. Joey Bosa's return has helped immensely in that area, recording 4 sacks in 4 games.

Everyone is acting like this is a game for the #1 seed, but in reality the Chiefs will still remain a on top of the Division even if they lose. The Chiefs have the divisional tie-breaker because the Chargers loss to Denver.  Chargers also still have the possibility of not making the playoffs. With a10-3 record and games @KC, vs. Ravens, @ Denver remaining, there is a possibility the Chargers could lose all 3 and end up 10-6. The Dolphins, Ravens, Colts, and Titans are currently 7-6. What if two or more of those teams win their 3 remaining games and the Chargers end up in a 3-5 team tie at 10-6? Not sure how the tie-breakers would shake out in each scenario.


Thoughts on the rest of Week 14 

 Another sign this isn't the same Patriots. Yes I know about the Pats struggles in Miami, but the Pats don't lose games like this. They are too well coached, too disciplined. Always in the right place to make plays. They don't make crucial mistakes and seem to always come up with the big play when they need it. Well not this game. Steve Gronkoski missed an extra point. Pats have 1st and goal at the Miami 2 with 21 seconds left in the half. Two incomplete passes and a sack later, the clock runs out and the Pats come away with no points. You've probably already seen how it ended, but what was Rob Gronkowski doing in the game with the Dolphins on their own 31? No way Ryan Tannehill could reach the end zone on a Hail Mary from there. Tannehill hits Kenny Stills just short of midfield, he avoids a tackle, and two pitches later RB Kenyan Drake breaks into the open with only Gronkowski to beat. I really can't say that a defensive player would have made the tackle, but Gronk, being a TE, takes a bad angle and doesn't even lay a finger on Drake.

Saints have been shut down. The Rams have been shut down. The only offense that hasn't been shut down are the Chiefs, with their only losses coming on 40-43 and 51-54 shoot outs. Barring a complete collapse, in the AFC, the road to the Super Bowl will go through Kansas City. It's a tough place to get a road win, but I also wonder how the Chiefs will fair if the weather does what no defense has done so far...limit their passing game. 

Monday, December 3, 2018

NFL Week 13 Thoughts - Ying and Yang

 The Steelers had never lost a night game at home with Big Ben as the QB. They had never lost a game when leading by 16 points in their storied history.

The way the first half went I didn't think the Chargers had a chance. They got lucky on their first two TDs, the false start no call and a pass that should have been picked gets popped up in the air and ends up in Keenan Allen's hands. For the game Allen caught 14 for 148 yards and should have had more. Rivers missed him a couple times and Allen slipped on another.

I don't know if it would have been different with Gordon, but the 2nd game with him out and the Chargers had just 2 yards rushing in the first half and the protection for Rivers isn't as good.

Chargers were down 23-7 at the half, but when Desmond King returned a punt for a TD, suddenly the score was tied at 23. Chargers went against their M.O. by going for two twice. It's taking some NFL teams a long time to decide to go for two when the score calls for it and the Chargers were one of them. Glad to see that coach Lynn isn't afraid to go for it went he needs to.

Why didn't Justin Jackson play in the 1st half? I like the kid and I don't know what the Chargers are going to do with Gordon, Eckler, and Jackson on the roster next year. Jackson's stat line; 8 carries, 64 yards, and the go ahead 18 yard TD run, all in the 2nd half.

Badgley gets 3 shots at the wining FG when the Steelers were off side twice. They were off sides on the winning kick also, but since Badgley made it the Chargers declined the penalty.

Did anyone catch Russell Okung's intro? "Russell Okung, Wakanda Tech." He even said it with an accent.

Quick thoughts on the rest of the NFL...

Did I just miss it or did the Kareem Hunt story just suddenly get public attention? I didn't hear anything about it until it was announced that the Chiefs released him before the game Sunday.

Arizona upsets Green Bay 20-17 and Mike McCarthy gets fired after the game. I know that the Packers haven't played well the last two years, but since McCarthy was hired the Packers have the best wining percentage in the NFC. I'm betting McCarthy lands a job as soon as the season is over.

The Texans are the team flying under the radar. The Chiefs are the talk of the NFL. The Chargers are everyone's sleeper pick. The Patriots will always be in the conversation as long as Belichick and Brady are there. But the Texans are sitting at 9-3, leading the AFC south, and on a nine game winning streak. Even a team trailing them, the Colts, have gotten more press than the Texans. Looking at their schedule it's not out of the question that they finish 13-3. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where the Texans get the #1 seed.

On the other hand, the Bengals are fading fast after starting the season 4-1.

The Ravens are a lot better with Lamar Jackson at QB. Can't understand why John Harbaugh is even considering putting Joe Flacco back in as the starter.

How did the Colts, who were on a roll, get shut out by the struggling Jaguars?

Don't look now, but the 'Boys are back! The team everyone loves to hate or America's team depending on which side you're on. Regardless, they lead the NFC East and is the divisions best team right now. The Saints came into Week 13 scoring 37 pts/game. How did the Cowboys hold them to 10 points?!

What happened to the Panthers? A month ago they were contenders at 6-2...the last 4 weeks they got blown out by the Steelers, and lost to the Lions, Seahawks, and Bucs. Crazy that the closest game was vs. the Seahawks.

Wow, the injury list was long this week. It's so long I'm inserting this link - Week 14 injuries.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

NFL Week 12 - Well That Changes Things

Chargers came out flat in Week 12 after a terrible game in Week 11. The 2nd lowest scoring team in the NFL put up 10 points in their 1st two possessions. Seven minutes into the game the Chargers were down 10-0 to the Cardinals.

Then Phillip Rivers took over! He set a record for completions to start a game, breaking the record of 22 shared by Mark Brunell and David Carr (that would have been a heck of a trivia question) on his way to tying the record for consecutive completions (25) held by Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill set his record over 2 games. Rivers ended the game 28-29, 259 yards, 3 TDs. By halftime the Chargers were up 28-10 and at the end of the 3rd quarter the score was 42-10 and Rivers day was done.

After giving up 108 yards to the Cards in their 1st two drives, the Charger D only allowed 41 yards the rest of the game. Joey Bosa recorded 2 sacks.

It should have been a game that ended with all smiles, but Melvin Gordon left the game in the 3rd quarter with a knee injury. Gordon was visibly upset on the sidelines which normally isn't a good sign, but the news today was an MCL sprain. I have to wonder why he was still in the game with an (at that time) 35-10 lead when Gordon was questionable all week nursing a knee injury. He could possibly be out for the rest of the regular season and definitely won't play Week 13 against the Steelers.

I believe the Chargers will miss Gordon more than sportscasters are speculating. Austin Eckler is capable of breaking off big runs and is averaging 5.8 yards/carry, but the last game Gordon was out (Wk. 7 vs the Titans) the Chargers had only 47 yards on 16 attempts (2.9 yds/carry) and scored just 20 points., all season lows. Eckler rushed 12 times for 42 yds. I like Eckler, but I'll use a basketball analogy...Eckler is like the 6th man. He provides a spark off the bench, is talented enough to lead the team in scoring every now and then, but you normally won't start him because he can't sustained that high energy play for an entire game. If he tries to conserve that energy to play more minutes as a starter he's less effective. Also, Gordon has developed his blitz pickup technique over the years. Eckler is a decent blocker and a tough guy, but isn't as big as Gordon and isn't asked to block as often.

I also found it interesting that Justin Jackson had more carries than Eckler (Eck still led the team with 10 catches) after Gordon left. Was it just the team giving Jackson a try out in a blow out win or was it a preview of the plan moving forward...that being Jackson taking over Gordon's role and Eckler keeping his role? I honestly don't know the answer, but Jackson was a high volume back at Northwestern (1142 attempts, 5440 yards) and considered in some circles as the most underrated back in last years draft. I still feel that Eck will get more total touches, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson isn't the one on the field in early downs and gets more carries. Jackson isn't a one trick pony either, he had 858 receptions in his 4 years at Northwestern. Still, Jackson is a rookie and has had limited time on the field. I doubt Jackson will have had time to learn all the blitz pickups. That may limit his playing time more than any thing else.

The Chargers are going to need the defense to step up in this one...which is a tall order against a team with the level of talent on offense that the Steelers have. Of course, Rivers has to have a good game, but that's no different than any other game. Rivers picked up Offensive-Player-of-the-Week honors for his performance against the Cardinals, it would go a long way to winning this one if he can do it in back-to-back weeks.

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Not much to say about the rest of the NFL. Saints still rolled the Falcons 31-17 despite having  uncharacteristically inconsistent play on offense. Rams/Chiefs were on their Bye. Texans are 8-3, wining 8 straight after stating the season 0-3. Bengals have really struggled lately and now Dalton is done for the season. Seahawks, Broncos, and Cowboys are making a push for a playoff spot.

Speaking of the 'Boys. The Thursday Night Game is just coming to an end as I type this. Who would have thought that the Cowboys would win a 13-10 game over the Saints? Brees and Co. looked unstoppable in going 10 straight after losing the season opener. This was big. The Rams now have the #1 seed which means the road to the Super Bowl goes through LA. I would have bet the farm on the Saints if the Conference Championship was played in New Orleans.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

NFL Week 11 - Where Do We Go From Here?

I recent article in the San Antonio Business Journal mentioned that former SA Mayor Henry Cisneros and current Mayor Ron Nirenburg believes SA Officials should "have a discussion" with the Chargers about moving the team to San Antonio. I would be all for it. SA Chargers sounds good to me and I would bet that the city would support the team in a way SD fans never did and LA fans never will.

I felt this was the worst game the Chargers played so far this year. Even including the other two loses. In those games, they played well, just couldn't stay with the Chiefs or Rams. In this game the Chargers shot themselves foot again-and-again. 10 penalties in the first half, 7 in the first quarter alone. 14 penalties for the game. They drove into the Red Zone twice only to have penalties end the drive with 2 long Badgley FGs. Pouncy and Rivers almost lost the ball on the snap 3 times, twice on bad snaps and a 3rd when Phillip just took his eyes off it. That juggle by Phillips made him throw the ball late and got it picked. Rivers also threw a 2nd pick in the 3rd on a lazy WR screen that set up the Broncos 2nd TD. The Broncos 1st TD came after a successful fake punt. Chargers mistakes kept the Broncos in this one.

They even had a miscommunication between Rivers and Gordon right at the two-minute warning. Rivers turned one way and Gordon went the other, leaving Rivers with no where to go. Rivers just went down for a 5 yard loss. I don't know who's fault it was, but it gave the Broncos one last possession to win the game. All those penalties, bad snaps, and mistakes on hand offs shouldn't happen in Week 11.

Chargers dominated the game until the Final drive. Case Keenum goes 5-5 to set up the winning FG. Broncos came in with a banged up offensive line and the Chargers could not sack Keenum even with Joey Bosa making his first appearance of the season. Going into that last drive the Chargers had out gained the Broncos 479 to 249. For the game, the Chargers ran 72 plays to the Broncos 52, won time of possession 37:49 to 22:11, had 26 first downs, to 16 for the Broncos, gained 8.9 yards per play, and only punted twice. They never should have lost this game. It shouldn't have even been close.

After the Week 3 loss to the Rams I posted this..,"Over the next 9 games (10 weeks) the Chargers face a series of games where I feel they should win. Divisional games are always tougher and they play the Raiders twice and Broncos in that stretch so I'm thinking they lose one of those (although they should win all three). The toughest game of the 9 game stretch is at Pittsburgh December 2nd. 7-2 should be doable, if not 8-1. That should mean a record of 8-4 or 9-3 with the last 4-games facing a tough stretch against Cincinnati, at KC, Baltimore, at Denver."...that was pretty prophetic.

It was the Chargers first home game in over a month and I think they got too comfortable. I don't know how else to explain this game. Hopefully its a wake up call for the rest of the season.

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Speaking of explaining something, how do explain the Eagles this year? As far as I know, no major players left in free agency. This Week they set a record for the biggest margin of defeat by a defending Super Bowl Champion, 48-7 by the Saints. Eagles are now 4-6 and haven't played any where near the way they dominated last season.

The Saints are rolling. Everyone looks at their offense, but their defense is playing great also. Sportscasters are finally giving them their due. If the road to the Super Bowl has to go through New Orleans I'm betting on the Saints making it to Atlanta. Always been a Drew Brees fan and he deserves the MVP this year.

I don't know why everyone is saying the Panthers decision to go for 2 to win was a bad one. Newton had Wright wide open and just over threw him. I don't know how he missed him. Newton wasn't under pressure, in fact he sat back in the pocket forever and no was even close. It should have been an easy toss and catch for the win.

Rams-Chiefs, heck of a game, but I don't know if I like it. Is it really that entertaining to watch a game where the defenses have no chance to stop the offenses from scoring except by luck, penalty, or turnover? With all the talent on the Rams defense, including the top candidate for defensive player of the year, they could barely slow down the Saints or Chiefs. The defenses are so hand cuffed now, that I don't think it's fun to watch.

When the Rams intercepted Mahomes to take the lead in the 4th, all my friends watching the game (all Chiefs fans) turned to me (the only one there rooting for the Rams) and I just shrugged my shoulders and said, "It doesn't matter, they're just going to get the ball back and score again."  When the Chiefs went for it on 4th and 2 on their won 35, I knew we had officially entered video game territory. Screw punting, go on every down. The defense probably wouldn't stop the other team from scoring anyway. We even joked around after the Chiefs took their last lead that they should just on-side kick for the same reason...and guess what, no one argued. Rams promptly drove down the field and took the lead back. The most shocking thing that happened was that, with 1:49 left in the game, the Chiefs didn't put it back in the end zone.

I will say that the Chiefs have someone special in Mahomes, and it's not just the physical talent. The kid never got rattled even after giving up a strip sack for a TD and an interception for a TD. Despite throwing for 6 TDs and 400+ gazillion yards, he took full responsibility for the loss.

I also give Sean McVay credit. Despite having an all-star team for a defense and the best RB in the NFL, he realized (probably after getting beat by the Saints 45-35) that there was no way he could win this game unless they put up as many points as they could.

I don't know if I should be amazed or saddened by typing that last paragraph.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

NFL Week 10 - It's all about the Chiefs

I don't know what the issue was, but the Chargers didn't play well against the Raiders. Luckily it was the Raiders. Rivers had a so-so day against a secondary that wasn't able to cover anybody last week against 49er QB Nick Mullens who threw 3 TDs in his first ever start. Rivers did enough, leading an 91 yard TD drive at the end of the 1st half. Rivers should have been picked in the first drive when he threw into coverage, but got lucky when the tipped ball found the ground. He was picked in the 3rd when he floated a jump ball into double coverage against Keenan Allen. Despite tossing 2 TDs, I thought this was Rivers' worse game this season.

The stat line will look good for the defense with the Raiders only scoring 6 points, but the Raiders moved the ball well. A goal line stand, strip sack, and bonehead play by Derrick Carr (he threw the ball away on 4th down) kept the Raiders out of the end zone. This game could easily have been a lot closer.

They did enough to improve to 7-2 and with the Pats losing to the Titans, the Chargers have the 2nd best record in the AFC. Unfortunately they happen to be in the same division as the Chiefs, who have the best record at 9-1.

Still wondering when Joey Bosa will be back. He's back in practice this week, but may not see game action until week 12.

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The Cardinals defense actually played very well against the Chiefs holding them to 26 points. Cards had their chances to win with the score 20-14 until a 4th quarter interception setup the Chiefs last TD for the 26-14 final score (Chiefs went for 2, but were unsuccessful). Mahomes threw 2 more TD passes, but was held to under 300 yards, ending his streak of 300+ yard games. Cards D sacked Mahomes 5 times. Did someone find a way to slow the Chiefs down or was it that the Chiefs were looking ahead to next weeks showdown against the Rams?

Saints are looking as unstoppable as the Chiefs and it seems like everyone is forgetting that they are also 8-1. Interestingly their only lost came from the Bucs, who outscored them 48-40, similarly to how the Chiefs lost to the Patriots 43-40. The Saints are the only team to beat the other 8-1 team, the Rams, 45-35. The NFL has been tweaking the rules to promote scoring and we're seeing the desired result. Saints would get my vote for the best team in the league right now.

Recent rule changes make it harder on (or call a penalty on); 1) CBs that battle WRs in tight coverage; 2)  any defender that makes contact with WRs running free across the middle; 2) defenses trying to combat the "legal " offensive screens used to pick defensive players in man coverage; and 4) anyone who even touches a QB after he releases the ball. I don't see the NFL going back as everyone seems to love these high scoring games. To me it's frustrating to see a defender make a good play only to be flagged for it.

Julio Jones became the fastest receiver to put up 10,000+ receiving yards this week. Jones did it in 104 games, topping the previous record of 115 games by Calvin Johnson. Coincidentally, this week Larry Fitzgerald moved into 2nd all-time in receiving yards with 15,939, trailing only Jerry Rice who has an incredible 22,895 career receiving yards. Despite being the fastest to 10,000 I can't see Jones playing long enough to break Rice's record. Jones is in his 7th season and would have to keep this pace for another 8 seasons to catch Rice.

Pats 34-10 loss to the Titans is further proof that this New England team isn't the same despite the 7-2 (now 7-3) record. Pats had zero turnovers in this game, but suffered their largest margin of defeat since Brady took over as QB.

Bear's kicker Cody Parkey hit the goal post 4 times Sunday. A feat that I would bet that Parkey couldn't duplicate if he tried. Luckily the Bears took care of the Lions easily and Parkey's 2 missed FGs and 2 missed extra points didn't matter.

With Seattle putting up 31 points against the Rams in a loss, I'm putting more stock in the Chargers' 25-17 win over the Seahawks last week.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

NFL Week 9 -- Something Old, Something New

I really thought that the Chargers would have kept Mike Bagley as the FG kicker after he was perfect in the two games in place of Caleb Sturgis (3FGs, 4 PATs). Sturgis has missed 3 FGs and 4 Extra Points this season...that's right 4 extra points (that total is now 4 FGs and 6 extra points)! Even if Bagley didn't work out, Sturgis wasn't worth keeping anyway. The word on Bagley is that he struggled on kick offs, but I don't recall seeing anything that stood out. It's a good thing the Chargers brought Bagley back to the practice squad since Sturgis played himself out of a job.

Sturgis could have cost the Chargers the win vs. Seattle. Russell Wilson drove the Seahawks down to the 1 yard line with LA up 25-17. Chargers should have been up 30-17 or at least 27-17, but Sturgis missed two extra points and a 42 yard FG. Fortunately for the Chargers a false start pushed the Seahawks back to the 6 and S Jalhleel Addae got a finger nail on Wilson's last pass to prevent the TD.

The last time an AFC team won in Seattle was 2011. Chargers are 6-2 for the first time since 2006.

200th straight start for Phillip Rivers. He becomes only the 4th QB to make 200 consecutive starts (Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning). Rivers hasn't missed a start since he took over for Drew Brees back in 2006.

I haven't seen a Chargers O-line run block like this in a long time. Melvin Gordon is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and against a pretty good Seahawks run D gained 113 yards on just 16 carries. They are doing this with a platoon at RT (Joe Barsdale and Sam Tevi) and 2nd round pick Forrest Lamp still recovering from last years season ending injury.


...and my thoughts on the rest of the NFL this week...


Chiefs-Browns features Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield. No doubt that Mahomes has the more talented team behind him, but Mahomes has been almost flawless, seemingly setting a record every week. I see a lot of talent in Mayfield and love his attitude, but he was playing against a stacked deck in the Chiefs. I give credit to Cleveland for hanging in for a while, but the Chiefs offense has been unstoppable so far this year.

JULIO JONES SCORED A TD!

Heck of a game in New Orleans. 39 year old Drew Brees out dueled 24 year old Jarrod Geoff giving the Rams their first loss of the season, 45-35. Rams fell behind by 21 points and came back to tie it at 35-35, but the Saints put up 10 more to put the game away. I can't wait to see the Rams-Chiefs game in two weeks.

Patriots-Packers...old man Tom Brady out plays young stud Aaron Rogers. In the NFL, quarterbacks are judged by titles and Brady has 5. He's led the Pats to 8 Super Bowls! In this era of free agency where its rare to see a player stay with a single team, you wonder if 8 Super Bowls by one QB will ever be matched. Rogers is the most physically gifted QB (although that is being challenged by Mahomes now) playing in the NFL today. With Brady you keep wondering how he does it, with Rogers you wonder how he did that. Pats again find a way to win. This time a couple trick plays, using a WR at RB, and forcing a timely fumble.

With the way RB James Conner is playing, does Pittsburgh even care if LeVeon Bell comes back let alone paying him big dollars by franchise tagging him or renegotiating his contract? Bell is obviously just looking for the big pay check and he doesn't care if it comes from the Steelers or not. 

Does anyone even know who Nick Mullens is? He started the season as an drafted addition to the 49ers practice squad. Is he for real, or was it just that the Raiders are that bad right now?

Speaking of the Raiders. What the F... is Jon Gruden doing? Raiders traded LB Khalil Mack and WR Amari Cooper and earlier this week released DE Bruce Irvin. OK, maybe it's a mad scientist at work (Gruden kinda looks like one). According to the site OverTheCap.com, the Raiders will have over 83 million in cap space next year. He also picked up 1st round draft picks in 2019 and 2020 for Mack and another 1st round pick in 2019 for Cooper. This gives the Raiders 5 first round picks in 2019 and 2020.

Sunday, November 4, 2018

NFL Week 7

It was pretty good defense on the 2-pt. attempt. They took away QB Marcus Marriota's first option, a fade to his right, then when Marriota looked back left for the slant, S Adrian Phillips was waiting to knock it away.

Everyone has a problem with the Titans going for the 2 point conversion instead of kicking the extra point and going to overtime.  It comes down to these two scenarios; scoring from the 2.5 yard line vs playing for a win or tie in overtime. For me that's a coin flip. I understand the point of the announcers/broadcasters that the Titans had dominated the 2nd half, but the Chargers scored on two long passes. The game plan was to limit the Chargers possessions and they did that all day. Going for two was the ultimate, don't let the Chargers offense have a chance to win it, call.

If anything I have more of an issue with the call. Especially after the defensive holding penalty that made the attempt from inside the 2. Titans are a running team and one of the better read option teams with a good running QB in Marriota. Seems to me that a read option would be the go to play if I needed to run one play for less 2 yards to win a game.

I hope I don't jinx it, but the Chargers haven't missed a kick since Michael Badgley took over after an injury to Caleb Sturgis. Badgley went 2 for 2 in FGs and Extra Points and the Chargers needed every one of Badgley's 8 points. I'll be surprised if Sturgis is still on the roster after the bye in Week 8.

 There's no good time for your starting RB to have a hamstring injury, but if Melvin Gordon was going to pull a hammy, the game before the bye gives him two weeks to recover. Hamstring pulls are touchy so we'll see what happens, but I'm hoping he'll be good for Week 9 @ Seattle.

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Got to hand it to the Patriots. They find a way. This time they produce two special teams  TDs come from a kick off return and blocked punt. I still don't think this years Pats are Super Bowl material, but I can't deny that they keep finding ways to win.

The Pat Mahomes show continues in Kansas City. Along with WR Tyreek Hill, RB Kareem Hunt, and TE Travis Kelce, this is the most talented offense to come together since the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis. I'm not sure how anyone can stop these guys, or even if it's possible with today's rules. Looks like the only way to beat them will be the way the Pats did...by outscoring them 43-40. I thought the Bengals would at least be able to score on them, but they folded under the pressure of trying to keep up with the Chief's offense.


Thursday, October 25, 2018

No Cable -- 5+ Years Later

On July 30th, 2013 I cut the cord and posted about it. So here I sit, 25 October 2018 watching Thursday Night Football on Fox, cable free for over 5 years!

I was just talking to my daughter-in-law about it, which prompted me to write this post. I honestly don't miss cable and if anything, streaming shows have gotten better over time. I have almost no desire to watch any weekly series that's on TV right now, with Manifest being the lone exception. Even then, I usually stream it off NBC's website when I want instead of watching it when it's broadcast on TV. In contrast, I look forward to many new series that are being streamed. The 1st seasons of Dare Devil and Jessica Jones were great. The 2nd season of DD was good, but I didn't like Season 2 of JJ. Looking forward to finding time to catch season 3 of DD which was just released. I liked Luke Cage, but it doesn't compare to DD and JJ. I thought season 1 of Iron Fist was terrible. Season 2 of each was better, but I heard that Marvel is cancelling both. Not as well known was Cloak and Dagger, which I was surprised that I really liked it. I hope they make a season 2. I thought that Jack Ryan lived up to the hype. Season 2 is all but guaranteed.

As a car-guy I thought I would really miss the Discovery Channel where all the good car shows seemed to be. But the streaming shows have been even better.  Clarkson, Hammond, and May left Top Gear to create their own car show, The Grand Tour, which is currently filming season 3. Some have criticized it, saying it's not as good as TG, but for me TG was as much about the trio as it was about the cars. If you're looking for old school, Hot Rod Unlimited is for you. It's a rerun of the TV episodes made by Hot Rob Magazine. Want to see stuff on new cars, try Ignition. Created by Motortrend to introduce you to the newest vehicles on the market. Apex was an amazing documentary on SuperCars.  Normally I couldn't car less about cars I'll never by able to afford, but this was so well done. Fastest Car was also a great documentary pitting garage built cars vs. SuperCars in a drag race. The stories about the owners were as entertaining, if not more so, then the cars themselves. For pure hilarious entertainment try Drunk History (and you may learn something too). It's crazy how many well know actors have played parts for this series.

There's also some great stuff to stream from YouTube (my Samsung TV has a YouTube app built in). For auto related, I love Donut Media, especially the "Everything you need to know..." series.
Host James Pumphrey's delivery is hilarious. Also your favorite team probably has a series. The Chargers have posted 4 episodes of Backstage:Chargers this season, along with highlights for every game. I also love HiSessions, which showcases musical artists from Hawaii.

Sports is still the downside. All those games on TNT and TBS (mostly basketball and baseball) that I can't watch anymore. Monday Night Football is still on ESPN. I will say there is a way to watch those games if you really want to...I will also say that those sites are probably not legally doing it. Because of that I won't post any links here, but it really isn't hard to find. Video quality isn't great and sometimes the stream can be erratic. It's up to you if you think it's worth it or not.

In the end, MNF and some random NBA/MLB games isn't enough for me to miss Cable. I'm perfectly happy with my viewing options and have no regrets.

And the next Angels Manager is... Brad Ausmus

Ever since Billy Eppler was hired as Angels GM in 2015 there has been philosophical differences with former Manager Mike Scioscia on how to run the team. Scioscia became Manager of the Angels in 1999. He guided the Angels to 6 AL West Titles and the Angels only World Series Win. He won 1650 games (18th all time), but the Angels made the post season only once in the last 9 seasons. Scioscia was considered old school, managing by his "gut." Eppler is a proponent of "probability-based" managing.

Enter Brad Ausmus, who had spent the last year as a special assistant to Eppler, showing a willingness to adapt analytics into his baseball philosophy. That statistics based managing style caused some dissension in Ausmus' 4 year stint in Detroit. They made the post season only in his first year. Tigers management had a lot to do with the losing seasons, but Ausmus' embracing analytics during those losing seasons didn't help. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against analytics, it's just that when your pushing analytics and win you're going to get credit for being innovative. Lose while pushing analytics and you got fired.

I have the utmost respect for Scioscia. He is the all-time leader in wins for the Angels and the first Manager to bring his team to the post season in 6 of his first 10 years. I will forever cherish the 2002 season when an underdog Angels team won the World Series over Barry Bonds and the Giants. They lost Game 1 in every series, but came back to beat the Yankees 4-1, the Twins 4-1 in the ALCS and finally, the World Series in 7 games. But I have to admit that the last 9 seasons haven't been very successful for Scioscia, only making the post season in 2014 when they were swept by the Royals. All this with the consensus best player in baseball, Mike Trout.

So now Eppler and Ausmus will bring their probability-based decision making to the Angels. It will be interesting. While the analytics definitely will favor Trout being on the field, I don't believe it will favor Albert Pujols hitting in the 3-4 spot or playing 1B. Scioscia stuck with Pujols, will Ausmus?

I think there's going to be a shakeup in the Angels lineup next season...stay tuned.

Friday, October 19, 2018

NFL Week 6 - Home Away From Home

I really expected last weeks game to be a tougher for the Chargers. Browns were making strides at become respectable coming in with a 2-2-1 record and I'm pretty high on Baker Mayfield's long term potential. Chargers shook Mayfield up early and he started getting rid of the ball even when the Chargers were blocked. They did sack Mayfield 5 times, with 0 coming from Melvin Ingram.

The other Melvin, Gordon, had his best game this season. 18 carries for 132 yards, and 3 TDs. He had 28 catches coming into this game, but the Chargers ran so effectively that Phillip Rivers threw for a season low 20 attempts. Gordon caught 2 of those for a total of 30. The Williams, Tyrell and Mike, have a combined 32 catches. I expect teams to try to take Gordon and Austin Eckler (14 receptions) away at some point, but I believe Rivers will then shift more focus on getting the ball to the two Williams. Chargers staff must have seen something in film because they ran outside the tackles more this game then in any our time in under OC Ken Weisenhunt. Gordon gashed them with sweeps, and pitches all game. Chargers usually run Gordon inside the tackles, but I can remember only a handful against Cleveland. The also through in some jet sweeps from Kenny Allen and Mike Williams. Gordon's game wasn't all good. He had a Rivers pass bounce off his hands that got picked. Gordon was running a slant inside the Cleveland 5 and if he catches it had a good chance of getting his 4th TD of the game.

A couple unsung Chargers made big plays. The aforementioned Tyrell Williams caught back-to-back 44 and 45 yard passes in the 2nd quarter. The 45 yarder a TD were he outfought 2 Browns for the ball. On the next drive Rivers hit Tyrell again for a 29 yard TD that should have been called back. It was pretty clear that  Russell Okung should have been called for a false start.

Desmond King picked Mayfield twice, the first was a great jump on an outside move. King is fast! The receiver made a good break and it was a pretty good throw by Mayfield, but King managed to under cut it. He also had a 32 yard punt return and has provided the Chargers an unexpected scoring threat on punt returns with Travis Benjamin nursing an injury.

A lot is being made about the Chargers having to travel to London. They stayed in Cleveland to practice so they didn't have to make the trip from California, which I thought was a smart move. The thing is, the Titans have to make the trip also. Both teams will have to deal with the Jet lag and time zone change.

Among all the negative stories about the Chargers not doing well in LA was how much the Chargers' are being welcomed in London.

"We're the home team and it feels like a home game even." - Head Coach Anthony Lynn

A reported explained how he’s followed Rivers’ career from afar for so long, and that while he was being completely professional, he couldn’t help but get those same fanboy emotions getting to be in the presence of his hero.

London native Andrew Cunneen already has his flight booked for December to travel 4,300 miles from the UK to watch his favorite team in action. On Sunday, the die-hard fan only has to travel a couple miles to watch his cherished Chargers up close.

“All over the UK, Chargers fans are hyped that their beloved team is playing in London,” said Rob Spragg, who runs the British Bolts social account. “The buzz is massive on social media and I know lots of Chargers fans can't wait to meet up and enjoy the whole experience. Parties and tailgates have been arranged for the whole weekend.”
 Maybe the Chargers should just move to London.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Spurs New Era Starts With a Win

It was strange to see this years Spurs take the court. Out of the 5 players that started the game, only 3rd year player Bryn Forbes is a home grown Spur. Jakob Poeltl and DeMar DeRozan came over from Toronto. Rudy Gay started in Memphis. LaMarcus Aldrige started his career in Portland. DeJounte Murray would have started, but a knee injury ended his season.

Along with Murray, Rookie Lonnie Walker and Derrick White also went down with injuries, but at least Walker and White are expected back this season.



It's only one game, but it was encouraging. DeRozan and Aldrige combined for 49 pts. DeRozan led the team with 28 pts. and hit the go ahead bucket to put the Spurs up 110-108. He followed that by making 2 free throws to seal the victory. Aldrige filled up the stat line with 21 pts., 19 rebs, 3 blks. 5 Spurs put up double digit scoring. They weren't the most efficient though, shooting .430 as a team. Aldridge only hitting on .304 had a lot to do with that. Not that worried about that since he's a .488 career shooter and making .499 in 4 seasons with the Spurs.

One game is WAY too early to make any valid long term conclusions, but I'll take 1-0 over 0-1 every time.

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

NFL Week 5 Thoughts...Winds of Change

Things are changing in Cleveland. That kick doesn't make it over the upright in any other game prior to Baker Mayfield taking the field.Yea, I know that Mayfield has nothing to do with the kick, but that kind of kick would have been destined to fail in any other season.

Before the season I was talking to a co-worker who is a Chief's fan. We talked about how one player sometimes changes the whole attitude of a team. Joe Montana changed everything for the 49ers. Tom Brady turned a so-so Pats team into Champions. I'm not going to go there yet, but right now, Mahomes and Mayfield are looking like the next "saviors."

Mahomes had his worse game (0 TDs, 2 INTs) and yet the Chiefs beat the Jags easily. KCs defense was MIA so far, but they showed up in Week 5. Jags were the AFC favorite going into Week 5, but the Chiefs have to be the top AFC now.

If you didn't know the distance and just watched the Graham Gano FG without sound it just looks like a routine kick. Down the middle and cleared the crossbar easily. Knowing that it's a 63 yard FG for the win in overtime...go crazy Carolina fans!!! The person that added the Titanic music is a genius.

Remember when the Colts went for it on 4th down and lost the game because they didn't make it? Yea, that was just last week against the Houston Texans in OT. So this week, Dallas has 4th and 1 on the Texans' 42 and decide to punt. 4 plays later, Deshaun Watson hits DeAndre Hopkins for 49 yards that sets up the Texans' game winning FG in OT. In poker they talk about pot odds. Basically it's a risk-to-reward factor on whether you should make the call or not. Frank Reich and Jason Garrett apparently never played serious poker.

Reich took too much of a risk going for it on 4th and 4 on their won 43. There was no guarantee of scoring even if he did make it. Garrett should have gone for it on 4th and 1 on the Texans' 42. K Brett Maher made a 48 yarder earlier in the 4th. Anything inside the Texans' 35 would have given Maher a decent shot of winning the game.

Yea, the Colts might have made it and the Cowboys may not have, but the risk-to-reward made the proper call to go for it NO for the Colts and YES for the Cowboys.


That was the Chargers best game so far this year.

Chargers D put a lot more pressure on the QB with LT Corey Liuget back from a 4 game suspension. Raiders didn't get into the end zone until a near meaningless TD in the 4th. Raiders biggest threat to score happened in the 3rd. DE Melvin Ingram made a great play on a defensive wrinkle where he dropped back into the passing lane and intercepted a Carr pass in the end zone. Raiders didn't convert a 3rd down in the first half.

Was it because of Liuget being back in the lineup? I didn't see anything that points to that, but I also didn't see anything that changed from the previous weeks. The Chargers blitzed less, but they didn't have to. All 3 sacks came from the D-Line. My first thought was "it's the Raiders," but they put up 45 points and 565 yards against an improving Browns' defense last week.

Despite Stub Hub not being a home field advantage the Chargers are 7-1 in their last 8 games there (the loss against KC in Week1).

I'm tired of articles talking about how the visiting teams fans outnumber the Chargers fans like it was something new since moving to LA (I won't even give one a link). Raiders fans have out numbered Charger fans even in San Diego. People writing these articles were never Chargers followers or they would know that anytime a popular team or other California team visited SD their fans outnumbered Charger fans at the game.

The Chargers won't play at Stub Hub again until Nov 18th. They do have a home game on Oct 21st, but that game is in London. They have the bye in Week 8, so it gives them a break in the middle. Not sure if the long hiatus from LA will be a disadvantage or not, but if they can pull off winning all 4 games they may see a few more Charger fans when they get back to Stub Hub. They're all winnable games (@Browns, Titans in London, @Seattle, @Oakland).

I'll end this post with a tip of the cap to Chargers Owner Alex Spanos who passed away today. He had been dealing with dementia since 2008. Pulled this from an article posted on CBS Sacramento...

Born in Stockton on Sept. 28, 1923, Spanos took an unlikely road to NFL ownership. After working in his father’s bakery and serving in the Air Force during World War II, Spanos borrowed $800 from a banker to buy a truck from which he sold sandwiches to migrant farm workers in the San Joaquin Valley. He began investing in real estate and started a construction company that mostly built apartment buildings, eventually expanding its footprint across the Sunbelt and Midwest.
Spanos and his wife were generous philanthropists, giving to many causes related to hospitals, universities and youth programs. He gave extensively to the University of the Pacific, his alma mater in Stockton, where the Alex G. Spanos Center houses the Tigers’ basketball and volleyball teams.

 I didn't know him and words seem inadequate to express the sorrow felt by the Spanos family today.

Monday, October 8, 2018

NFL Week 4 Thoughts

The game was close...closer than it should have been. The game couldn't have started any worse with Phillip Rivers throwing a pick-6 on their first possession to a team that didn't have an interception yet this season. But that's not what got me worried. It's the defense that's making me question whether this Charger team can put together enough wins to make the playoffs.

I can overlook the defense not getting the job done against KC and the Rams (is that a band?) with "Money" Mahomes and the return of "The Greatest Show on Turf." But Josh Allen was successful enough to  get Buffalo 20 points and CJ Beathard, starting his first NFL game, moved the ball consistently leading the 49ers to 27 pts. Remember that the Chargers allowed only 17 pts/game last year.

What's the difference? The ability to pressure the QB consistently. The Chargers had 43 in 2017 (2.7 sacks/game). So far this season they have 8 which projects to 32 for 16 games. That's not a significant difference, but looking even deeper into the numbers, three of the Sacks this year has come from rookie Safety Derwin James. Quick math tells me that the front seven is only accounting for 62.5% of the sacks. Last year the front seven accounted for 38.5 of the 43 sacks (.895). You don't even have to dig into the numbers, just watch the game. The opposing QBs have had lots of time unless the Chargers have blitzed.

I have a hard time believing that Joey Bosa makes that much of a difference, but he's the only difference between 2017 and 2018. In fact, excluding Bosa, this defense should be better than last season with the addition of James. Yes Corey Liuget is also out (4 game suspension) and he is a key interior defensive lineman, but he only had 1.5 sacks last year. Liuget returns next week, so we'll see how much a difference he makes.

I also wonder how Kaleb Sturgis missed back-to-back extra points. Is there that much pressure to make a kick now? Thankfully Sturgis came through with what ended up as the game winning FG.

Turnovers were the saving grace for the Chargers D. Trevor Williams picked off a deflected pass and returned it 86 yards in the 3rd quarter. Beathard had led a drive down to the Chargers 8, trailing just 17-23. The second pick of Beathard came courtesy of a James blitz giving DL Isaac Rochell his first career interception.

It was also nice to see the Chargers throw to get the first down and put the game away instead of just running it 3 times and kicking a FG, which would have given the 49ers a last desperate drive chance of winning the game.


And my thoughts on rest of the games this week...

I still think the Browns got robbed despite the NFL explaining the call to re-spot the ball after the Browns got the game clinching first down. Yea, an NFL spokesman said Replay Command had an angle that showed Carlos Hyde's elbow hitting the ground with the ball short of the first down, but as far as I know that replay has never been shown and also as far as I know they have the same replays that the broadcast team has. No exclusive video that is only available to the NFL Replay Command. I know the Raiders still had to drive for the tying score and win it in OT, so you can't pin the loss solely on that call, but when it happens to a team like the Browns you gotta wonder.

I feel sorry for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Did he have an awful game against the Bears? No argument, but it's not like other QBs never had a bad game before. It also was going to be a tough game to win with the Bucs were giving up 5 TD passes by Mitchell Trubisky...in the first half! Fitz is a gambler who is going to take chances when his team falls behind. Doesn't always work out, but it was like that with Brett Favre. Am I saying he's as good as Farvre? Of course not, but Fitz is better than a lot of QBs that are starting this season. He's a career 59.9 percent passer that was completing 67.4 percent this year and despite the Bucs defense giving up a league worse 139 points in 4 games, managed to win 2 of them. He was also leading the league in passing yards.

The Tennessee Titans are 3-1 having just beaten the Jaguars and Eagles. I was wondering how? Nothing about this team is special, yet they are finding ways to win. 9-6 wining score in Jacksonville (when was the last time both teams were under 10 in a game?) and Marcus Mariota was having a terrible game in the first half against Philly. Down 17-3 midway through the 3rd, Mariota somehow led his team to 20-20 tie, then the gaming winning TD in OT. Good thing they didn't bench him at halftime (Yes that was a Fitzpatrick reference).

I still think the Patriots are in trouble. Yea, I've been there before, and so has the Pats. But this Pats team is short on play makers. Sure they crushed the Dolphins, but was anybody saying Miami was a contender even with the 3-0 start? Sure the Pats will likely make the payoffs because they play in the AFC East, but I don't feel like they'll be a threat in the playoffs this year. Even if Josh Gordon pans out, the defense is lacking in talent.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Battle For Los Angeles and Other NFL Thoughts

Maybe they couldn't use that because of the book and movie, but I like the sound of that better than Fight for LA.

The Rams are stacked. You could say without too much argument that they field the best d-line, best pair of corners (before they got hurt), and the best running back in the league. They had the highest scoring offense in the league last year and then added wide receiver Branden Cooks in the off season. The worse you can say about them is that they lost their FG kicker to injury in Week 2.

I honestly don't know why more sportscasters aren't predicting them to win the Super Bowl. Maybe in an era of controversial broadcasting it's just to obvious. I mean, does anyone have a legitimate argument for why they shouldn't win it all?

No surprise that the Chargers lost 23-35. When I looked at the schedule before the season began I figured there would a good possibility that the Chargers would be 1-2 at this point. I was hoping they could beat the Chiefs and be 2-1, but Patrick Mahomes put an end to that. Figured the Bills was a win and they lose to the Rams.

Over the next 9 games (10 weeks) the Chargers face a series of games where I feel they should win. Divisional games are always tougher and they play the Raiders twice and Broncos in that stretch so I'm thinking they lose one of those (although they should win all three). The toughest game of the 9 game stretch is at Pittsburgh December 2nd. 7-2 should be doable, if not 8-1. That should mean a record of 8-4 or 9-3 with the last 4-games facing a tough stretch against Cincinnati, at KC, Baltimore, at Denver.

Other NFL thoughts...

Baker Mayfield has an arm! His throws are on a line and accurate. You have to wonder why it took the Browns coaching staff so long to let him play. Everyone talking about Mahomes' arm and how far he can fling it, but Mayfield's throws are lasers!  With Josh Gordon in New England and Mayfield under center, Jarvis Landry is going to payoff for those who drafted him in fantasy. I picked the Jets to win this game, which was looking pretty good until Mayfield came into the game.

What in the world happened to the Vikings?! The Bills were the worse team in the AFC and maybe the NFL (Arizona may have a legit case for being the worse). So how can a Super Bowl contender not only lose to Buffalo, but almost get shut out 27-6. Viks scored on a meaningless TD in the 4th and for some reason went for two. Oh sure three TDs and 2-pt. conversions plus a field goal would have tied it...

I think this time the fall of the Patriots is for real. The Lions had given up 78 points in the first two games (Jets, 49ers), but the Pats only managed 10. That's two games in-a-row that they haven't even been competitive. Their only win so far is against the 0-3 Texans.

Fitz-Magic may have lost, but he still threw for 411 yards and 3 TDs. The difference this week...3 ints.





Monday, September 17, 2018

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

Lets get my thoughts on the Chargers out of the way...
It was the Bills, but the Chargers did what they needed to do...at least for a half.

In the first half they had 5 drives, 4 red zone trips, 4 TDs. Up 28-6 at halftime. Then they went to sleep in the 2nd half getting outscored 3-14 for the final 31-20 score.

Ken Wisenhunt added a wrinkle to the Chargers running attack putting in some misdirection plays. He even had RBs Austin Eckler and Melvin Gordon on the field at the same time. Eckler rushed for a career high 77 yards. Gordon's untouched 20 yard TD was off a counter. Look closer and you'll see an unbalanced line with both OTs on the right side (#76 is LT Russell Okung lined up on the far right. #88 is TE Virgil Green lined up at LT). Bills jumped the play thinking it was going to be a jet sweep to the right. 

Does Joey Bosa make that much of a difference? I'm giving Gus Bradley credit for designing some cleverly schemed blitzes involving rookie safety Derwin James who has two sacks and a couple pressures in the first two games, but this team didn't need to blitz last season to put pressure on the QB. Buffalo rookie QB Josh Allen was pretty comfortable in the pocket in the 2nd half despite the Chargers big lead. A situation Bosa and Melvin Ingram fed on last year. Ingram did register 1.5 sacks and the Chargers had 5 total, but watching the game there were too many plays where Allen had all day to throw. Report is that Bosa has a bruised bone in his left foot and his return date is still unknown.

On a more happy note, TE Hunter Henry was seen working out in a knee brace this week. It's been just 4 months since he tore his ACL, but it was reported that he was doing some stop-and-start and change of direction drills. Still too early to say when he'll be back, but the odds of Henry seeing the field this season is getting better.


Patrick Mahomes!
Wow! I understand that he can't possibly keep this pace up. 10 TDs in two games is on a pace to throw 80 TD passes in a season which would shatter Peyton Manning's 55 TD record. If Mahomes averages just 2 TDs the rest of the way he would be at 38. So far any question regarding releasing Alex Smith has been rendered mute.

Fitz-Magic!!
Did anyone start Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 or 2 on their fantasy team? I didn't think so. Back-to-back 400 yard, 4 TD games for Fitz. You also have to give it to him for his post game look after beating Philly 27-21 in week 2. Check it out here.

The Saints defense was supposed to be better this year, but Fitz lit them up. Then he backed it up against the defending champs. He gets to face the Steelers next week who Mahomes just carved up for 6 TDs. If he has another great game do you start Jameis Winston who is expected to be ready for Week 4?

AFC Front runners
The Jaguars were without their top WR (Marqise Lee) and starting RB (Leonard Fournette) and still beat the Pats easily 31-20. Patriots have the Chiefs, Packers, and Vikings on the schedule. Right now, I don't see them beating any of those teams. I still think the Pats make the playoffs since the AFC East is pretty weak. While I'll admit it's not smart going against Brady-Bilichick, especially this early in the season, but the Jags took Rob Gronkowski out of the game (2 catches, 15 yards) and Blake Bortles torched the Pats D for 377 yards and 4 TDs.

Announcers Not Knowing the Rules
Some of these guys are ex-players and have also called the game for a long time. So in tribute to the famous words "I didn't know the game could end in a tie," here are three plays where the announcers should have know better.

In the Chargers-Bills game TE Virgil Green lost control of the ball in bounds as he was going out of bounds. Crowd went crazy. Bills challenged. The refs upheld the call on the field, which was Chargers maintaining possession. The announcers watched the slo-mo replay which showed a clear loss of a position by Green before his knee touched out of bounds and claimed the officials made the wrong call. The rule states that if a player touches the ball while out of bounds, the play is dead. One of the smartest plays I ever saw was on a fumble bouncing towards the out of bounds line. Instead of trying to jump on the ball, the player purposely stepped out of bounds and stretched out to touch the ball. His team didn't recover it, but because he was out of bounds and touched the ball the play was dead and they retained possession. Same thing here. Even though Green lost possession he still had contact with the ball when his knee hit out of bounds.

In the same game, the Bills punt returner muffed a punt. A scramble for the ball caused it to go into the end zone where the Bills recovered. Announcers said it should have been a safety. The refs called it correctly as a touch back with the Bills getting the ball at the 20. A muffed punt is not a fumble (you have to gain possession for it to be a fumble) and thus the recovery in the end zone is a touch back. Now had the Chargers recovered it would have been a TD because the ball was touched by the receiving team first.

During the Chiefs-Steelers game, Big Ben threw a pass while crossing the line of scrimmage. Announcers said it should have been called back because the ball had crossed the line. The rule states that the passer has to be across the line of scrimmage for it to be an illegal forward pass. That's all of the passer. If even his foot is behind the line it's a legal forward pass.


NFLs New Roughing the Passer Rule 
Rule 12, Section 1, Article 13 (2)
A rushing defender is prohibited from committing such intimidating and punishing acts as “stuffing” a
passer into the ground or unnecessarily wrestling or driving him down after the passer has thrown the ball, even if the rusher makes his initial contact with the passer within the one-step limitation provided for in (1) above. When tackling a passer who is in a defenseless posture (e.g., during or just after throwing a pass), a defensive player must not unnecessarily or violently throw him down and land on top of him with all or most of the defender’s weight. Instead, the defensive player must strive to wrap up or cradle the passer with the defensive player’s arms.
So what did Clay Mathews do that violated this rule? Mathews didn't lift Cousins, he grabbed him with one arm and took him down. He didn't lift him. He didn't drive him into the ground. In fact, Mathews put his free arm down to keep from putting his full weight on Cousins. He didn't "Burp" him...whatever the definition of that is. I'm guessing that's when the defender wraps his arms around the QB and lifts him off the ground before slamming him to the turf, but that sounds more like the Heimlich then a Burp. I'm not going to say it definitively cost GB the win...Diggs still has to make the TD catch and 2 pt conversion...but I don't know what else Mathews can do to let up on that play. 


Monday, September 10, 2018

Deja Vu All Over Again

Different year, same story.

It started with the news that DE Joey Bosa would be out with a foot injury. Then the big plays from KC courtesy of WR Tyreek Hill. Right off the bat he returns a punt 91 yards. On the Chief's 2nd possession he takes a slant 58 yards to put the Chargers down 3-14. Hill had scored on long TDs in the first quarter of both games last season.

Chargers claw back into the game making it 12-17 at half, but just as the two games last year, Phillip Rivers throws a pick that kills a deep drive into Chiefs territory and JJ Jones fumbles a punt return to gift the Chiefs a goal-to-go inside the 5. Score 20-38 with 10 minutes to go and it's all but over.

Kinda-shoulda-woulda. Chargers WRs outright drop four big passes, three in the first half. One was dropped by Tyrell Williams in the end zone. Three dropped by Travis Benjamin. The first a possible TD. The 2nd could have set up a late FG before half. The 3rd in the end zone that would have made it a 3 point game with 1:45 left. Fittingly, Caleb Sturgis missed the ensuing FG that probably wouldn't have mattered, but would have at least kept hope alive if the Chargers could pull off the onside kick.

Even as a Charger fan you have to love Andy Reeds play calling. If your team has a player that is very aggressive Reed will see it on film and find a way to take advantage of it. Two of Patrick Mahomes TDs came from shovel passes that took advantage of hard inside rushes from DE Melvin Ingram.

It's only one game, but it was as big as a Week 1 game could be. The Chiefs have the Chargers number and until they can get over that the Division will be belong to KC.

Thursday, September 6, 2018

NFL Week 1 is Finally Here!

Watching Falcons - Eagles and thought it would be a good time to type out a few thoughts.

In what amounts to an 11th hour signing, Antonio Gates is back with a 1 year deal to make it 16 seasons with the Chargers. Now they can add "Win for Antonio" as another motivation. Gates obviously doesn't need the preseason to learn the offense, but there is a question about conditioning. Did he stay in shape or did he go into retirement mode? Still it's great to see him back if nothing else to see if the Chargers can rally around Gates before he hangs up the cleats for good.

Along with Gates, the Chargers' added ex-Falcon LB Emmanuel Ellerbee and ex-Chief DT T.Y. McGill. I don't know anything about either player besides the fact that they didn't make the 53-man roster of their respective former teams. Buffalo and Philly also put in waiver requests for McGill, so that at least tells me that the Chargers weren't the only ones that thought he could improve their roster. Chargers are also thin at DT with Justin Jones and Darius Philon nursing minor injuries and Corey Liuget suspended for the first 4 games .

That meant three players had to be released. Those were QB Cardale Jones, LB Hayes Pullard, and RB Justin Jackson. Jones and Jackson passed waivers and was added to the practice squad. Pullard remains unsigned.

I have a lot of anxiety about this opening game. Despite the hype surrounding the Chargers the truth about them is that they lost all 5 games last year against teams that ended the season with 10 or more wins. The 9 wins came from the Giants, Raiders (twice), Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Redskins, Browns, and Jets. Not exactly against the crop of the NFL.

On the encouraging side, three of the seven loses were close games against last seasons Super Bowl contestants Philly 24-26 and Pats 13-21, and AFC losers, the Jags in OT 17-20. Close, but still losses. Two other loses came during the 0-4 start on botched FG attempts against the Broncos and Dolphins.

Also, the Chiefs swept the Chargers 24-10 in KC and 30-10 at home. Whatever the Chiefs have on Phillip Rivers it's real. In the two games Rivers was 40-73 (54.8%) and 6 interceptions. This in a season were Rivers completed 62.6% of his passes and threw just 10 ints.

The Chiefs defense lost CB Marcus Peters who had 3 of Rivers' picks, but the defense wasn't very good last year either and the Chiefs managed to win the division. The big change is QB Pat Mahomes replacing Alex Smith. Smith had a career year last season, but Mahomes is more mobile and has a stronger arm. Mahomes is surrounded by play makers. Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest recievers in the league. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing. Travis Kelce is the 2nd best TE in the league. The Chiefs also added WR Sammy Watkins.

I believe rattling Mahomes is going to be the key to winning this game. If Mahomes gets comfortable and starts making plays, at best the Chargers will have to win a shootout. At worse, with the Chiefs having Rivers number, Chargers get blown out. Of course, rattling Mahomes goes hand-in-hand with keeping Hunt in check. Despite the lopsided scores the Chargers were trailing just 7-14 at half in the 1st game and actually were up 13-10 at half in the 2nd. Hunt broke a 69 yd. TD in the 4th to put game 1 away and had 206 combined yards and 2 TDs in game 2. Smith also hit Hill with long TDs for 1st quarter scores in both games. It's not exactly a revelation to say that the Chargers defense needs to limit the big plays and make Mahomes orchestrate long drives and trust that he will eventually make a mistake. After all this is only Mahomes 2nd NFL start.

To allow the defense to play the bend-not-break strategy, Rivers has to overcome whatever it is the Chiefs have on him. Tossing 3 picks in any game isn't going to end in many wins, let alone against an explosive offense and two-time division champs. Also getting the lead would help put the pressure on Mahomes. If Melvin Gordon, behind an improved o-line, can generate a consistent running game that would also help. It's always a plus to win the time of possession battle against a team with an explosive offense. Gordon has one of the top yards after contact averages in the league...problem is, contact is more often than not happening behind or at the line of scrimmage. The addition of C Mike Pouncey and LG Dan Feeney in his 2nd year should yield better blocking. For what it's worth, LT Russell Okung graded out as the best run blocker in the preseason by Pro Football Focus. How all this shakes out when the real games start is yet to be seen.

I can't imagine the pressure on Kaleb Sturgis if this game comes down to a FG in the waning seconds. I'm hoping the Chargers can somehow break the KC curse (8 straight loses) and find a way to win it convincingly. I wouldn't bet on it though.

Saturday, September 1, 2018

Chargers 53

My thoughts on the Chargers 53-player roster to start the season.

For me, QB Cardale Jones making the cut was the biggest surprise. Jones didn't play well during the preseason and I didn't think the Chargers would go with three QBs. Anthony Lynn brought Jones over from Buffalo after Lynn took over as Head Coach of the Chargers last season. All I can figure is that Lynn isn't ready to give up on Jones just yet.

You just gotta root for the undrafted free agents that make the team. Chargers have an obscure record of 22 straight seasons with at least one UFA making the team. This year three made it.

RB Detrez Newsome. I wrote about Newsome in my last Chargers post. The way he played during the preseason there was no way he could be cut. Newsome won't get many touches during the season with RBs Melvin Gordon, Austin Eckler, and 7th round pick Justin Jackson also on the team, but he's proven he can carry the load should Gordon suffer an injury (42 carries, 159 yds, 2 TDs in the preseason). This is an interesting group with Eckler and Jackson adding big play capabilities.

CB Brandon Facyson just played well. At 6'2" 197 lbs he's a big corner. Getting the chance with Jason Verrett's season ending injury, Facyson just played solid corner whenever he was in the game. Chargers are keeping seven CBs and even without Varrett, this is a very talented group.

WR JJ Jones made the team as a return specialist. He didn't see the field much as a WR, but averaged 12.6 yds on seven punt returns  (including a 72 yd. TD) and averaged 22.8 yards on six kick off returns. At 5'10" 172, Jones is one of those quick guys with break away speed that is a threat to break one anytime. Travis Benjamin returned punts last season and it's yet to be seen if Jones will take over those duties or just return kick offs.

Other than that it was pretty much what everyone expected.

Despite rumors of bringing TE Antonio Gates back, Chargers stuck with former Bronco Virgil Green and Sean Culkin who was the best of rest during the preseason. I still found it strange that they signed Je'Ron Hamm after Culkin played well in the first preseason game. Hamm didn't seem to make any impact.

K Caleb Sturgis is the guy with all the pressure on him. With the Chargers kicking woes last season being given as one of the major reason for the team not making the playoffs the spot light will be pointed directly on Sturgis on every kick. I can't imagine how tense it will be when he has to attempt his first game winning kick.

Bring on the Chiefs, I can't wait for the season to start!

Monday, August 27, 2018

Farewell to Manu

I will always remember Charles Barkely shouting "MANU GIN-O-BIL-I."

You've probably already read or heard the stats. A career winning percentage of .721 (762-295), the best career winning percentage in NBA history among players with over 1,000 career games. Spurs all-time leader in 3-pointers made (1,495) and steals (1,392). Four NBA Championships, 218 Playoff Games. Ginobili and LeBron James are the only NBA players to score 3,000 points and make 300 three-pointers in the playoffs. All-time leader in bench points (2,014), assists (576), rebounds (635), steals (205), field goals (630), 3-pointers (226) and free throws (528). Combined with Tony Parker, has the most recorded wins (132) by a duo in postseason history. Along with Tim Duncan and Parker, won 575 games, the most by a trio in NBA history.

I will always remember the "Euro-step."

The first South American to earn All-NBA honors and the first South American to play in 1,000 games for a single NBA team. Ginobili and Bill Bradley are the only players in basketball history to win a EuroLeague title, NBA Championship, and an Olympic gold medal.

I will always remember Pop saying, "It's just Manu being Manu."

Manu was just an unknown foreign player (at least in the USA) when he was drafted 57th overall in 1999. He didn't even jump over to the NBA until 2002. Fittingly, Manu's 1st ever points in the NBA came from a 3-pointer. 16 years later we have come to an end of an era, Ginobili being the last of the Big 3 to leave the Spurs. If it wasn't for the uniforms I wouldn't be able to recognize this Spurs team when it takes the court next season.

All the major sports outlets and shows are paying tribute to the Argentine, but my favorite comes from the Official Site of the San Antonio Spurs where they've posted several videos featuring the future Hall-of-Famer.



Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Los Angels Chargers - Preseason look after the first 2 games

Half way through the preseason seems like a good time to take a look at what's going on with the Chargers. Questions that have risen to the top of the list...

Who will be the FG kicker? 
Caleb Sturgis is listed at the top of the depth chart over Roberto Aguayo. In the vacuum of two 2018 preseason games Sturgis is 1 of 2 in FGs and Aguayo is 5-5 in extra points and made his lone FG attempt. The story is in their pasts. Aguayo has more to prove since he was a draft bust making only 71% of his FG attempts in his lone season in Tampa Bay (2016). Sturgis made 84.8% of his attempts in 3 seasons with the Eagles, only losing his job last season when he got injured. I'm not in the know about what's going on in practice and you can't evaluate kick offs unless you know what the plan is (are you trying to kick to specific area to force a return or going for distance an force the touch back) so maybe Stugis is establishing himself in practice. IMO this is still wide open.

Which TE's will be on the Chargers roster in Week 1?
With Antonio Gates released and his promising replacement Hunter Henry out for the season former Bronco Virgil Green is listed as the starter, but he's primarily a blocking TE and none of the rest have been receiving threats in college. One of the front runners is former Missouri Tiger Sean Culkin who made an impression in the first preseason game against Arizona. What really caught my attention was that the Chargers signed ex-Seahawk TE Je'Ron Hamm after that game. I'm not sure why they would sign Hamm, who is on the small size for a TE and doesn't have anything that stands out in his resume. Up until they signed Hamm I though Green and Culkin would be the only TEs. Now I'm not sure what the Chargers are trying to do.

Who will be the backup QB?
I was rooting for Cardale Jones and wasn't a fan of Geno Smith. Word out of camp is that the competition is "neck-and-neck," but after watching 2 preseason games it's obvious that it's Smith position to lose. The eye test tells me Smith has more command of the offense. He's more decisive and is more accurate. Jones should have had the advantage since he came to the Chargers last season, but it's obvious to me that, right now, Smith is the better QB.

How are the young guns doing?

The Mike Williams hype was growing in camp. Reports were streaming in about Williams standing out in practice. Head Coach Anthony Lynn even added to the hype, saying that Williams size reminded him of Terrell Owens. In the annual Blue-White game (an inter-squad scrimmage) Williams caught two impressive TDs. But that's practice. "Practice?!" (Okay, I was tempted but won't do it :-D). When the fake real (read preseason) games started Williams had a ho-hum 2 catch 16 yard performance in Game 1. Then he showed why he was drafted 7th overall last year in Game 2. Still over hyped, but with Keenan Allen drawing the #1 CB and Tyrell Williams/Travis Benjamin attracting safety attention with their speed, Mike Williams will have a lot of changes to duplicate this highlight.

Last year's 2nd round draft pick, OL Forrest Lamp still isn't 100%. Lamp suffered a season ending ACL tear last year and was released off the PUP list but still hasn't played in the preseason. Lamp is expected to take the RG spot occupied by Michael Schofield. IMO RT Barksdale is the weak link of the OL and Schofield played RT in 5 Games last season when Barksdale was injured. I would guess that Schofield would slide over to RT if Lamp is ready to play. Still the odds of  Lamp starting in Week 1 lowers with each passing preseason game.

Are there any surprises?
There's the season ending injuries to Hunter Henry and CB Jason Verrett. Hunter was set for a breakout year with the release of Gates. Verrett's story is tragic. A Pro Bowl DB that had a season ending injury in Week 1 last year and now a season ending injury before playing a game. It's unfortunate, but it looks like another "he had the talent, but injury shortened his career" story.

Relatively unknown RB Detrez Newsome drew some attention in Game 1 versus Arizona showing good speed and quickness in catching 4 passes for 36 yards and also had a 37 yd TD run called back for holding. He followed that up with 19 carries for 78 yards against Seattle.  Highly touted rookie Justin Jackson is nursing a hamstring injury and hasn't been in either preseason game. Newsome is making a strong case for making the team.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

NFL Preseason -- Does It Matter?

Pre-season games, BAH! Who cares right?

Well USA Today posted an article titled "The NFL Preseason Matters More Than You Think." In this era of Big Data and Advanced Analytics the data is out there for any and all to see and use. The question mark comes from the "Analytics" part. What data is relevant and how do you use it?

The USA Today article title is misleading. In my opinion, the data shows that preseason records are totally irrelevant.  At first they had me going with a chart that showed that 75% of the teams that finish with 2 or more wins made the playoffs. That's a pretty significant percentage. Sure there's that 1 in 4 team that makes the playoffs with 1 win or less, but 3 out of 4 is a lot better odds.

Then they showed the 2nd Chart. Basically it shows that 75% of the teams (data collected over 5 years) finished with 2 or more wins. Of those teams, 40% made the playoffs. Of the 0 win preseason teams, you guessed it, 40% of the teams made the playoffs. There were just a lot less of them, which accounts for the 25/75 split in the first chart. The 1-win teams made it only 28% of the time, but even the article admits that it's probably just an outlier and it would probably move more towards 40% with a bigger sampling size.

Really, the preseason records don't matter. What a Shocker huh?

Just before the NFL draft I read an article about analytics in regards to drafting players (I would link it if I could find it). They interviewed several organizations and basically what it came down to was using analytics to back up your findings. It's when the numbers don't match what your findings tell you that you have to reevaluate. They gave an example of how every successful edge rusher in the NFL has a 10-time (the time a player takes to go 10 yards from a three-point stance) under a given time that I can't remember. They zeroed in on two unnamed players. One had the quickest 10-time ever recorded. He had top 5 totals in sacks and pressures in college, but scouts questioned his strength and technique. The other player also had top 5 totals in sacks and pressures. Great work ethic, great technique, overpowering at times...but a 10 time that was slower than any successful edge rusher in the NFL today.

Both were drafted (I don't remember how long ago). Where are they today? Both are out of the league. Neither made it. The Analytics lesson? If there's a data point that matters don't ignore it. But it's also not the only thing. One rep for an organization that wasn't named even said that they've been doing Advance Analytics for decades, they just didn't call it that and that the data available now is so much more that you need people just to make sense of it all.

So back to preseason games. Players are playing that won't be around when the season starts. Established starters may play 3-4 quarters out of the 4 games...some not at all. Most coaches are running vanilla game plans. They are not trying to create mismatches, on the contrary, they are trying to put players in certain match ups so they can evaluate them. There are several players on the field still learning the offense/defense so the pace is slower. Put those findings altogether and reasonable thinking is that the preseason records don't matter....and the data backs it up.

Thursday, August 9, 2018

The San...Los Angeles Chargers

"Just win, baby!"

Okay, so that used to be the slogan of another team that used to be in Los Angeles, but that is what it's going to take for the Chargers to get fans to support them.

I don't remember any 49er fans before Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Ditto for Patriots fans before Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Once they started winning the fans followed.

The hype surrounding the Chargers this year is over the top. This for a team that went 9-7 last year. A team that hasn't beaten the defending AFC West Champs, the KC Chiefs since 2013. A team with no home field advantage and will play one of those home games in London. A team that seemingly has to overcome early injuries every season. In 2017 it was 1st and 2nd round picks G Forest Lamp and WR Mike Williams. CB Jason Verrett was lost for the season in the 1st game. 2018 is no exception with Antonio Gates heir apparent TE Hunter Henry and CB Jason Verrett is again out for the year.

Still, I can see why sportscasters are predicting good things. Despite an 0-4 start, they were the #1 offense in passing yards and the #3 defense in points against. This team has talent at every position. Under Offensive Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, Philip Rivers has had two Pro Bowl seasons. He regressed last season when Whisenhunt left for a Head Coaching job only to return as OC the following year. Rivers was only sacked 18 times and the Chargers' added C Mike Pouncey, a 3-time Pro Bowler, in free agency. Lamp will also get his chance this season. The WR core is deep and talented and Mike Williams is reported to be making an impact in training camp this year.

Despite the loss of Verrett, the DBs are stacked and the Chargers added #1 pick S Derwin James. This defense led the league in fewest passing yards allowed. Everyone knows about Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The defensive coordinator is Gus Bradley who created the "Legion of Boom" in Seattle.

Still there are issues...

Can they get past the KC Chiefs? The Chiefs' defense seems to have Rivers' number. He had only 10 passes intercepted last year, but 6 were picked off by the Chiefs. If Patrick Mahomes plays as good as Alex Smith they'll be fine, after all they won the Division with him. If he plays as good as the Chiefs think he is, then the Chiefs offense is going to be tough to stop because there's a lot of offensive talent surrounding Mahomes.

Rivers is 37 years old. You have to wonder if the drop off will come suddenly aka Peyton Manning.

Injuries. Lamp isn't 100% yet. CB Trevor Williams has an ankle injury and will miss  all of the preseason. Williams played great last season in place of Verrett. Rookie WR Dylan Cantrell is out with a bone bruise and will also miss the preseason. While the WR position is deep, Keenan Allen has played in all 16 games just once (last season). C Pouncey has been injury prone, missing games in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The two Melvin's (Ingram and Gordon) have been durable lately, but both were injury prone early in their careers. While not an injury, DT Corey Liuget is suspended for the first 4 games of the season. Chargers got a big scare when Bosa limped off the field during practice, but it wasn't anything serious.

Bottom line; Beat the Chiefs, overcome the lack of home field advantage, and avoid serious injuries to key players and the Chargers will be in the playoffs. Do that and the talent is there to make a run at a Championship.


Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Spurs - Act III

The Spurs are like a sports team you make up for a movie script. They hire this tough, no nonsense coach that has a kind heart and philosophical mind. They draft this shy kid with great talent that leads them to a championship then puts ego aside for the good of the team. They bring in a pair of foreigners, who at first seem to be incompatible, but end up bonding with the coach and the team goes on to win another championship...or another four. It comes full circle when the two put aside their egos to let the new kid carry the team.

Of course I'm talking about Pop, Duncan, Manu, and Parker. The movie should have ended with Kawhi Leonard winning the MVP and the Spurs hoisting their 5th Championship Banner, but in reality it was only the end of the first act.

In the three-act structure, the 2nd act is where the protagonist(s) attempt to resolve an issue caused by a turning point at the end of the first act, only to find things getting worse and seemingly unable to resolve the problem.

The old star has retired. The young gun who was crowned the savior has abandoned them. The two foreigners, who were thought inseparable, have now parted ways.

Parker wrote a thank you note that was posted here. Parker was/is my favorite Spur, yes even more so than Duncan. I realize that Duncan made the Spurs who they are and is one of the greatest, but I loved Parker's game and it was beautiful to watch him run the offense in his prime.


In order to solve the problem, the protagonist(s) must learn new skills and arrive at a higher sense of awareness of who they are and what they are capable of. They must do this in order to deal with their predicament, which in turn changes who they are.

Queue the 3rd Act.

Manu has nothing more to prove. The team will rebuild around new comer DeMar DeRozen, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay. Dejounte Murray will be running the offense. Las Vegas and ESPN are predicting the Spurs will miss the playoffs. It will be different, but I believe Pop helps this team figure out who they are and what they are capable of. The Spurs won 47 games last season with Leonard playing just 9 games. They will also be missing Danny Greene as part of the Leonard-DeRozen trade, but they won't have the distraction Leonard caused the entire season. Murray should get better. DeRozen should be motivated. This team is still plenty good enough to make the playoffs.

Can this team seriously challenge the Warriors for a spot in the Finals? That would take a movie like ending.