Friday, December 28, 2018

Week 16 - Opportunity Lost

If the Chargers fail to reach to Super Bowl this year, they will look back on Week 15 and wonder what might have been.

All the credit goes to the Ravens. They did exactly what they needed to do, holding the Chargers to 5 drives, 2 first downs, 72 total yards, an interception in the first half and owned time-of-possession 19:54 to 10.06. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense doing their bend but don't break thing, holding the Ravens to 6 points despite giving up 195 yards and 3 trips into the Red Zone in the 1st half.

Then the Chargers got the break they needed, forcing a turnover on the Ravens first possession of the 2nd half. The offense finally gets into the end zone, but unfortunately the Ravens offense gets their one big play of the game and answer with a TD of their own on a 68 yard TD from Lamar Jackson to TE Mark Andrews.

It was all setup for Phillip Rivers to pull off the comeback again. It all sounded familiar. 4:46 left in the game. Chargers punt and the defense has to get a quick stop to give the offense one last chance. The defense follows the script of the last two Chargers big wins over the Steelers and Chiefs. They stuff two Raven running plays and on 3rd down sack Jackson to force the punt.

Next the special team does their part. Desmond King, returns the punt 24 yards to the Ravens 39. It's all setup, down 10-16, 3 minutes to go, only 39 yards for the game winning TD, and still 2 timeouts. It should have been easier than Pittsburgh or KC. Unfortunately, Antonio Gates makes a catch for 11 yards and fumbles. Ravens recover and take it the house to seal the win 22-10.

With a win over the Ravens, the Chargers would have awaken Monday morning with the #1 seed in the AFC. Instead they enter Week 17 with only a glimmer of hope placed on a Raiders win over the Chiefs in KC. As it looks right now, the Charges will be visiting Baltimore for a rematch next weekend.

Thoughts on the rest of the Week 16...

 Chiefs have now lost 2-in-a-row. I would say that teams are figuring out the Chiefs offense, but they put up 31 points against a good defense in the Seahawks. Mahomes played another clean game, going 23-40, 273 yards, 3 TDs, 0 int. This was the first game that the Chiefs trailed for the majority of the contest, taking a brief 10-7 lead early in the 2nd quarter, but the Seahawks quickly answered to take the lead back, 14-10 and didn't trail for the rest of the game.

Aarond Donald leading the NFL in sacks as a Defensive Tackle is historic in itself, but with 19.5 sacks he has a shot at the all-time record of 22.5 against the 49ers.

Tight End Travis Kelce only needs 54 yards to break Rob Gronkowski's single season record of 1328 receiving yards for a TE. Chasing them both is SF TE George Kittle, who has 1228 receiving yards. With the Chiefs playing the Raiders and the 49ers playing the Rams I can see a scenario where the Chiefs are blowing out the Raiders and sit Kelce right after he sets the record. The 49ers will likely have to play catch up and Kittle's is capable of lighting it up. Kittles put up 210 yards against the Broncos in Week 13. Would Reid put Kelce back in if they find out Kittles is getting close?

Everyone is back on the Patriots bandwagon now that they're the #2 seed, but I still don't think this version of the Patriots can make a serious run at the Super Bowl.

Article on Bleacher Report by rules analysis Mike Pereira who's name NFL fans should be familiar  with, The Game is Over Officiated. All I have to say about that is...DUH! I don't blame the refs and agree with Pereira who comments in the article "...that officials are simply doing what they're instructed by the league..." The rules committee was originally put together to protect the fairness of the game. Now the rules are geared to favor the offense. At least for me, many of these games have not been fun to watch despite the scoreboard barrage. High scoring shoot outs used to be that one or two great presents you got in an NFL season, now they're just a gift that you return to the store because you received a half a dozen of them.


Monday, December 17, 2018

Week 15 - Finally

I'll get this out of the way...it was a terribly officiated game, but it wasn't as one sided as Chiefs' fans have been declaring (I'll get to that later) and as I have said many times in close Charger loses, yea the call could have gone another way, but there were just as many other reasons for losing the game.

For some reason the Chiefs just have Philip Rivers number. Including Thursday, he's been picked 8 times this year and 3 have come in the two KC games. In 2017, Rivers was picked 10 times and 6 were by the Chiefs. I guess the silver lining is that he's cut the int% vs the Chiefs in half. Despite the two extra possessions, the Chiefs only had 9 total drives for the game. Despite losing the turnover battle 0-2, the Chargers won time of possession 33:16 to 26:44 and total yards 407 to 294. Chargers only punted twice.

In the last Chiefs TD drive in which they used up almost 8 minutes and took a 28-14 lead, there were two terrible calls against the Chargers that kept the drive going. On the first, WR Tyrek Hill runs into LB Jatavis Brown, who had his hands out to his sides, pretty much signally "I'm not holding him." It looks bad because Hill is so much smaller than Brown so Brown gets flagged. Worse was the holding call on Desmond King. He didn't grab Kelce's jersey, didn't turn him, didn't impede him in any way. It was 3rd and 10, so the Chiefs would have had to punt with the score still 14-21. Instead they get the first down and end up going up 14-28. I can come up with a few more...so yea, not as lopsided as Chiefs fans felt.

I understand though. Although I wouldn't blame the loss totally on the call, that last pass interference call on Mike Williams was pretty ticky-tack. I'll make a basketball analogy...when a defender swipes at a player taking a shot, the refs are going to call a foul 9 times out of 10 whether there's contact or not. In this case, the Chiefs DB swiped at Mike Williams arm before the ball got there...and while I agree it shouldn't have been called especially since Williams had no chance to catch that ball unless he one handed it so he had no intention of reaching up with the other hand...refs are going call that swipe to the arm 9 out of 10 times. I don't like it, but that's the way the NFL is now.

Oh and there's that helmet-to-helmet hit on Rivers. Again, let me make myself clear that I hate many of the new rules and this is one of them. The defender has no control over what the runner does with his head. The Chiefs defender went low and attempted to make the tackle with his right shoulder. Philip slid and his head went to the defenders left side. While I disagree with the rule, at the same time, I've seen much less helmet contact get called especially when the QB is involved. Tell me a Chiefs fan wouldn't be upset at the no call if that was Mahomes.

What I was really upset about was that Rivers was complaining to the refs and the clock was running. It went down from 28 seconds to 13 before the Chargers used their last timeout, which also was unnecessary and took away any pass in the middle that wasn't a TD.

As for going for two, I've said it here before that I would take my chances trying to score from 2-and-a-half yards out over kicking and going into OT. Heck, even the kick isn't a guarantee and that statement has nothing to do with the Chargers kicking woes. Many prominent kickers have missed extra points since it was moved back. In fact, Mike Badgley has been money since joining the Charges, hitting 14-15 (93.3%) in FGs and 23-24 (95.8%) in extra points.

When the Chargers got the ball back for the last drive I started to think about whether they should go for two should they score. I don't know if Anthony Lynn new the numbers going in or whether he asked one of his assistants to look it up...or maybe he went on his gut feeling, but this season, the Chargers had converted on 5-7 of their two-point attempts and Chiefs opponents were successful on 4-5 attempts. Add to that, the probability of the Chiefs scoring if they win the coin toss and I felt going for two was a no brainier.

Chargers still need help to win the division so I'm a big Seattle Seahawk fan this week.

Thoughts on the rest of Week 15

Chargers did two things with the win...1st they accomplished the first goal of making the playoffs. 2nd, in at least locking up one of the Wild Card spots, that puts the four remaining 7-6 teams in a winner take all dog fight. One of those four happen to be the Ravens which is the Chargers' next opponent. It's said that the most dangerous animal is a cornered one and if the Chargers want to keep their hopes of winning the Division alive they have to beat a desperate Ravens team next week.

Sportscasters have to start admitting this is not the same old Pats. 13 penalties, many of them pre-snap. Pats are supposed to be too well coached, too disciplined for that. Late in the 4th quarter, the defense gets the big interception and Tom Brady drives them down into the Red Zone only to throw one up for grabs. Brady gets another chance. Plenty of time, 2:30, but not this year. Two back-to-back drives into the Red Zone for Brady, no points.

Cross Miami off the list of AFC Wild Card contenders. Dolphins get routed and with the Ravens, Titans, and Colts winning they may still be mathematically in it, but with 3 teams to leapfrog for 1 playoff spot, the odds aren't good.

Defense isn't dead in the NFL yet. Both the Colts and Titans keep their playoff hopes alive by shutting out the Cowboys and Giants. Cowboys are the puzzling one as they were one of the hottest teams.

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

NFL Week 14 thoughts - Thusday matters, but not that much

Chargers came out hot scoring on their first two drives, then suddenly went flat. Opposite of the last two games, where they came out flat and then woke up. Chargers gained 150 yards and scored two TDs in those first two drives. They didn't score another TD the rest of the game and ended with 288 total yards. Statistically, it was Phillip Rivers worse game of the season.

Kicker Michael Badgley saved the game for the Chargers. Yes, you read that right, a kicker was the Chargers savior instead of the goat. Badgley went 4-4 in FGs for the Chargers last 12 points including a 49 yarder and francise record 59 yarder in the last play of the first half.

It's encouraging to see the Chargers win in different ways each week, it's discouraging that they weren't able to put together a complete game this late in the season against a team that was missing their starting QB and #1 WR.

It would be tough to prepare for everything the Chiefs can/will throw at you offensively in a full week. Chargers have to do it in a short week plus losing a day to travel.

Ravens played the Chiefs the best I've seen so far. Raven's are unique in that they play a lot of 3 safety with two of the three often lining up on the line of scrimmage. They make the offense try to figure out who's rushing and who's dropping back into coverage. They blitz a lot, sending a LB or one of the Safeties (or a combination of both). Saw Mahomes get happy feet for the first time, running out of the pocket even though everyone was blocked. Raven's held the Chiefs to 17 points up until the last drive. Mahomes still led the Chiefs to a game tying TD and eventual win in OT. He converted two 4th downs including a 4th and 9th with a 48 yard strike to Tyrek Hill scrambling to the right and throwing deep back over the middle...something you are never supposed to do in the NFL.

Chargers Safety Derwin James has lined up in every defensive position except Middle Linebacker and Nose Tackle. S Adrian Phillips lines up as the weak side LB on Nickle and Dime packages. But the Chargers don't blitz very often. 22.5 of their 32 sacks have come from the D-line. Joey Bosa's return has helped immensely in that area, recording 4 sacks in 4 games.

Everyone is acting like this is a game for the #1 seed, but in reality the Chiefs will still remain a on top of the Division even if they lose. The Chiefs have the divisional tie-breaker because the Chargers loss to Denver.  Chargers also still have the possibility of not making the playoffs. With a10-3 record and games @KC, vs. Ravens, @ Denver remaining, there is a possibility the Chargers could lose all 3 and end up 10-6. The Dolphins, Ravens, Colts, and Titans are currently 7-6. What if two or more of those teams win their 3 remaining games and the Chargers end up in a 3-5 team tie at 10-6? Not sure how the tie-breakers would shake out in each scenario.


Thoughts on the rest of Week 14 

 Another sign this isn't the same Patriots. Yes I know about the Pats struggles in Miami, but the Pats don't lose games like this. They are too well coached, too disciplined. Always in the right place to make plays. They don't make crucial mistakes and seem to always come up with the big play when they need it. Well not this game. Steve Gronkoski missed an extra point. Pats have 1st and goal at the Miami 2 with 21 seconds left in the half. Two incomplete passes and a sack later, the clock runs out and the Pats come away with no points. You've probably already seen how it ended, but what was Rob Gronkowski doing in the game with the Dolphins on their own 31? No way Ryan Tannehill could reach the end zone on a Hail Mary from there. Tannehill hits Kenny Stills just short of midfield, he avoids a tackle, and two pitches later RB Kenyan Drake breaks into the open with only Gronkowski to beat. I really can't say that a defensive player would have made the tackle, but Gronk, being a TE, takes a bad angle and doesn't even lay a finger on Drake.

Saints have been shut down. The Rams have been shut down. The only offense that hasn't been shut down are the Chiefs, with their only losses coming on 40-43 and 51-54 shoot outs. Barring a complete collapse, in the AFC, the road to the Super Bowl will go through Kansas City. It's a tough place to get a road win, but I also wonder how the Chiefs will fair if the weather does what no defense has done so far...limit their passing game. 

Monday, December 3, 2018

NFL Week 13 Thoughts - Ying and Yang

 The Steelers had never lost a night game at home with Big Ben as the QB. They had never lost a game when leading by 16 points in their storied history.

The way the first half went I didn't think the Chargers had a chance. They got lucky on their first two TDs, the false start no call and a pass that should have been picked gets popped up in the air and ends up in Keenan Allen's hands. For the game Allen caught 14 for 148 yards and should have had more. Rivers missed him a couple times and Allen slipped on another.

I don't know if it would have been different with Gordon, but the 2nd game with him out and the Chargers had just 2 yards rushing in the first half and the protection for Rivers isn't as good.

Chargers were down 23-7 at the half, but when Desmond King returned a punt for a TD, suddenly the score was tied at 23. Chargers went against their M.O. by going for two twice. It's taking some NFL teams a long time to decide to go for two when the score calls for it and the Chargers were one of them. Glad to see that coach Lynn isn't afraid to go for it went he needs to.

Why didn't Justin Jackson play in the 1st half? I like the kid and I don't know what the Chargers are going to do with Gordon, Eckler, and Jackson on the roster next year. Jackson's stat line; 8 carries, 64 yards, and the go ahead 18 yard TD run, all in the 2nd half.

Badgley gets 3 shots at the wining FG when the Steelers were off side twice. They were off sides on the winning kick also, but since Badgley made it the Chargers declined the penalty.

Did anyone catch Russell Okung's intro? "Russell Okung, Wakanda Tech." He even said it with an accent.

Quick thoughts on the rest of the NFL...

Did I just miss it or did the Kareem Hunt story just suddenly get public attention? I didn't hear anything about it until it was announced that the Chiefs released him before the game Sunday.

Arizona upsets Green Bay 20-17 and Mike McCarthy gets fired after the game. I know that the Packers haven't played well the last two years, but since McCarthy was hired the Packers have the best wining percentage in the NFC. I'm betting McCarthy lands a job as soon as the season is over.

The Texans are the team flying under the radar. The Chiefs are the talk of the NFL. The Chargers are everyone's sleeper pick. The Patriots will always be in the conversation as long as Belichick and Brady are there. But the Texans are sitting at 9-3, leading the AFC south, and on a nine game winning streak. Even a team trailing them, the Colts, have gotten more press than the Texans. Looking at their schedule it's not out of the question that they finish 13-3. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where the Texans get the #1 seed.

On the other hand, the Bengals are fading fast after starting the season 4-1.

The Ravens are a lot better with Lamar Jackson at QB. Can't understand why John Harbaugh is even considering putting Joe Flacco back in as the starter.

How did the Colts, who were on a roll, get shut out by the struggling Jaguars?

Don't look now, but the 'Boys are back! The team everyone loves to hate or America's team depending on which side you're on. Regardless, they lead the NFC East and is the divisions best team right now. The Saints came into Week 13 scoring 37 pts/game. How did the Cowboys hold them to 10 points?!

What happened to the Panthers? A month ago they were contenders at 6-2...the last 4 weeks they got blown out by the Steelers, and lost to the Lions, Seahawks, and Bucs. Crazy that the closest game was vs. the Seahawks.

Wow, the injury list was long this week. It's so long I'm inserting this link - Week 14 injuries.