Search on predictions for the San Diego Chargers and you'll see anywhere from going 10-6 and making the playoffs (ESPN) to being a one hit wonder (Bleacher Report). To be honest, I have no idea how this year's Chargers will do. They were a Jekyll and Hyde team last year...beating the Eagles in Philly, upset the Colts, swept the Chiefs, and split games with the Broncos, but also losing to the Texans, Redskins, and Raiders.
While the big questions are on the defensive side of the ball, there are some on the offensive side as well. Phillip Rivers looks like he's back, but fantasy guru's aren't giving him much love. Rivers is ranked as a QB2 in standard 12-team leagues. I picked him up as a backup in one league that has 14 teams and as the last QB1 that came off the board in another league that has 16 teams. While fantasy has nothing to do with reality, his low ranking shows that many experts aren't sold on Rivers' being able to repeat what he did last season.
I expect big things from the WR position this year. Keenan Allen says he's fully recovered from the knee injury that made teams pass on him in the draft. Allen claimed he wasn't able to run at full speed last year and reports from training camp says Allen is showing a burst that he didn't have before. Not only is Malcolm Floyd back from a neck injury that many thought would end his career, but he is being touted as training camp MVP. Floyd was the Chargers deep threat last season, but that neck injury in Game 2 ended his season. Allen should draw a lot of attention after breaking out last year. Add to that Antonio Gates and a predicted break out year for LaDarius Green...Floyd will get a lot of single coverage.
I'm wondering why the Chargers signed Donald Brown from Indianapolis for 3 years, 10 million. They have to have something planned for him. Remember that Danny Woodhead didn't play much in the preseason last year, but ended up a key piece in the offensive game plan.
New OC Frank Reich plans on doing a version of the K-gun (the offense the Bills ran while Reich was there). The Bills were the first team to run the no-huddle as the main offense and not just in given situations.
Here's the trivia question for you...Why was it called the K-gun? If you said it was named after QB Jim Kelly you would be wrong. It was named after Keith Keller. Keller was a hi-bred TE/FB. Part of the no-huddle strategy is to limit defensive substitutions. NFL substitutions rules state that if the offense makes a substitution, they have to give the defense time to also make a substitution. Keller gave Kelly the ability to call more of the playbook with out changing personnel by being able to lineup at FB or TE.
So what is one of the 1st things the Chargers do in the off season? They pick up David Johnson a hybrid FB/TE. Many people thought the Chargers' would go to a 2TE set, but everyone, including myself figured it would be Gates and Green...now it looks like it will be Johnson and Gates or Green. One of the things I'll be looking for in Week 1 is how often Johnson will be on the field.
While I can't wait to see the offense in action, the Chargers will still be around a .500 team again this season unless the defense gets better.
The big issues were bad corner play and an inability to generate consistent pressure on the QB. A bad combination in the modern NFL passing age. Not surprisingly the Chargers were ranked 29th in defense last season...which makes the Playoff appearance last year even more amazing. You also have to question how the Chargers defense managed to hold the Broncos' record setting offense to their lowest point total of the season (not counting the Super Bowl). The offense was more exceptional than they were being given credit for. They led the league in time of position and 3rd down conversion rate which protected the defense by limiting the other teams offensive possessions.
The Chargers drafted CB Jason Verrett with their 1st pick and picked up Brandon Flowers when the Chiefs released him. While neither played much in the preseason due to nagging injuries, both are reported to be good for the season opener against the Cardinals.
The inability to generate a pass rush had more to do with injuries than lack of ability. OLB Melvin Ingram was lost during the preseason. Dwight Freeney was lost in Game 2. If they can avoid the injury bug this season the pass rush will be markedly better than last season. While it was only preseason, with Freeney at OLB, DT Cory Liuget looked like the disruptive force he was two years ago.
While I don't expect the Chargers to become a top 10 defense, any sort of improvement would go a along ways toward improving on last seasons 9-7 record and both the secondary and pass rush should improve this season barring injuries.
One thing the offense didn't do well at is scoring TDs. Chargers ranked 23rd in Red Zone TD percentage and 28th in TD percentage when goal-to-go. Chargers don't have a true power running game and defenses bracketed Gates in the Red Zone last season. The return of the 6' 5" Floyd will give Rivers another big target. TE/FB Johnson will provide more versatility. Ryan Mathews runs hard and has good speed, but isn't a power back...could Brown become the Red Zone back?
Questions, questions...the answers will start Monday night.
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