Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Week 17 - Now the Redemption Tour Begins

The Chargers won 23-9, that's the good news. The defense was solid, they have gotten better each week. Obviously, getting Joey Bosa back was big, but Desmond King has been a nice surprise as the slot corner and Derwin James is seemly in on almost every play. I'm still shocked that James fell to the Chargers at pick 17 of the draft. He would be a lock for Defensive Rookie of the Year if it wasn't for Dallas LB Leighton Vander Esch, who set the rookie record for tackles.

As far as King goes, I'm not going to claim he is one of the better Defensive Backs in the league, or even that he should have made the Pro Bowl, as some Chargers' fans and sportscasters have proclaimed. King has his faults, but he makes timely plays, both as a defender and kick returner. Yes I know Pro Football Focus has him graded as the #2 DB in the league, but if you look at PFFs top 5 you realize their must be something flawed about how they grade DBs.

As for the offense...what happened? OK the Ravens' defense is pretty good and the Broncos' defense is still pretty good, but no way this offense, with all those play makers, should be shut down for the entire half of both games. Chargers didn't convert a 3rd down score on offense until the 3rd quarter of either game.

A big part of it has been that Philip Rivers has struggled. Take away the 4th quarter comeback against KC and Rivers' has been mediocre in the last 3 games. Of the 12 interceptions he's thrown, 6 have come in the last 3 games. 5 have come in the 1st quarter of those games and he's thrown an interception in the open drive in all three. I don't have an explanation why, but I can make some assumptions. The 1st would be that the 37 year old Rivers is wearing down over the course of a season, but neither Rivers, the Chargers, or the media at large is reporting even a hint supporting that. Rivers' has under thrown a lot of passes lately though and almost everyone of the recent interceptions were under throws. The only assumption I can make is that the Rivers or the Chargers are tipping plays somehow, but I have no proof of that either. I can only hope the Chargers can straighten things out before next weeks Playoff game in Baltimore.

Which brings me to said Playoffs. The Chargers have a good possibility of facing every team they lost to (except the Broncos who didn't make the playoffs) if they make it the Super Bowl. They travel to Baltimore first. Keep winning and they'll likely to meet KC the following week or in the AFC Championship Game. The long shot is if they face the Rams in the Super Bowl and make it the dreaded All LA Bowl.

First things first though. The Ravens shut down the Chargers' offense in Week 16 allowing the only  Chargers TD after a turnover. They kept Rivers' guessing by stacking the line of scrimmage and making the Chargers figure out who was rushing and what type of defense they were in, which is pretty much how the Ravens play everybody this year. While the result wasn't good and take solace in the fact the Chargers at least got a chance to see that defense on the field. Offensive Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt needs to earn his pay this week and come up with something effective they can run against that Raven Defense. The Chargers have found different ways to win this season and I can see them winning with defense, much the same way they beat the Broncos, but I would rather they play a much more complete game, something I feel they haven't done yet. That's both encouraging and disappointing at the same time.

TE Hunter Henry was seen taking first team reps on Monday. Henry was supposedly lost for the season with an ACL injury during the preseason. Rumors have popped up lately that Henry's recovery was going better than expected and it looks like the rumors were true. He's expected to play Sunday vs. the Ravens. Love Antonio Gates, but Henry provides another big play threat that Gates can no longer deliver and is an effective run blocker, something Gates never excelled at.

Thoughts on the rest of Week 17

So that's the season. Out from last year, the Falcons, Jaguars, Bills, Panthers, Steelers, and Vikings. In is the Chargers, Colts, Texans, Ravens, Bears, and Cowboys. My biggest disappointment award goes to the Jaguars. They hung with the Patriots 24-20 in the AFC Championship last year and avenged that loss with a 31-20 beat down of the Pats in a game that wasn't as close as the score, but could only muster 4 wins for the rest of the season.

I still believe it's going to tough to beat the Saints in New Orleans and although KC is a tough venue to play in, I wonder how the weather is going to change how they play. I have a feeling they are going to really miss Kareem Hunt.

The Philadelphia Eagles are in! They were destined for a fall from Super Bowl Champs to not making the playoffs, but the Vikings left the door wide open for them to sneak back in. It may not be all Kirk Cousins fault, but that big contract they gave him sure is looking like a bad investment right now. Of course Case Keenum's performance in Denver isn't working out well for the Broncos either, so the Vikings can at least say they were right about that.

I am going to make an insane prediction that I probably shouldn't make, especially since the Chargers are in the Playoffs. My prediction is that neither the Patriots or the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl. I believe the AFC representative will be one of the teams playing this week end. Obviously, I hope it's the Chargers, but I can see any of the 4 (Chargers, Ravens, Texans, Colts) playing in the Super Bowl this year. I just don't trust the talent or execution the Patriots have shown this season and either KCs defense and/or weather will eventually cost them a win. An icy and windy day against the Ravens would be their worse nightmare.

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