NFL Week 1 is Finally Here!

Watching Falcons - Eagles and thought it would be a good time to type out a few thoughts.

In what amounts to an 11th hour signing, Antonio Gates is back with a 1 year deal to make it 16 seasons with the Chargers. Now they can add "Win for Antonio" as another motivation. Gates obviously doesn't need the preseason to learn the offense, but there is a question about conditioning. Did he stay in shape or did he go into retirement mode? Still it's great to see him back if nothing else to see if the Chargers can rally around Gates before he hangs up the cleats for good.

Along with Gates, the Chargers' added ex-Falcon LB Emmanuel Ellerbee and ex-Chief DT T.Y. McGill. I don't know anything about either player besides the fact that they didn't make the 53-man roster of their respective former teams. Buffalo and Philly also put in waiver requests for McGill, so that at least tells me that the Chargers weren't the only ones that thought he could improve their roster. Chargers are also thin at DT with Justin Jones and Darius Philon nursing minor injuries and Corey Liuget suspended for the first 4 games .

That meant three players had to be released. Those were QB Cardale Jones, LB Hayes Pullard, and RB Justin Jackson. Jones and Jackson passed waivers and was added to the practice squad. Pullard remains unsigned.

I have a lot of anxiety about this opening game. Despite the hype surrounding the Chargers the truth about them is that they lost all 5 games last year against teams that ended the season with 10 or more wins. The 9 wins came from the Giants, Raiders (twice), Broncos, Bills, Cowboys, Redskins, Browns, and Jets. Not exactly against the crop of the NFL.

On the encouraging side, three of the seven loses were close games against last seasons Super Bowl contestants Philly 24-26 and Pats 13-21, and AFC losers, the Jags in OT 17-20. Close, but still losses. Two other loses came during the 0-4 start on botched FG attempts against the Broncos and Dolphins.

Also, the Chiefs swept the Chargers 24-10 in KC and 30-10 at home. Whatever the Chiefs have on Phillip Rivers it's real. In the two games Rivers was 40-73 (54.8%) and 6 interceptions. This in a season were Rivers completed 62.6% of his passes and threw just 10 ints.

The Chiefs defense lost CB Marcus Peters who had 3 of Rivers' picks, but the defense wasn't very good last year either and the Chiefs managed to win the division. The big change is QB Pat Mahomes replacing Alex Smith. Smith had a career year last season, but Mahomes is more mobile and has a stronger arm. Mahomes is surrounded by play makers. Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest recievers in the league. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing. Travis Kelce is the 2nd best TE in the league. The Chiefs also added WR Sammy Watkins.

I believe rattling Mahomes is going to be the key to winning this game. If Mahomes gets comfortable and starts making plays, at best the Chargers will have to win a shootout. At worse, with the Chiefs having Rivers number, Chargers get blown out. Of course, rattling Mahomes goes hand-in-hand with keeping Hunt in check. Despite the lopsided scores the Chargers were trailing just 7-14 at half in the 1st game and actually were up 13-10 at half in the 2nd. Hunt broke a 69 yd. TD in the 4th to put game 1 away and had 206 combined yards and 2 TDs in game 2. Smith also hit Hill with long TDs for 1st quarter scores in both games. It's not exactly a revelation to say that the Chargers defense needs to limit the big plays and make Mahomes orchestrate long drives and trust that he will eventually make a mistake. After all this is only Mahomes 2nd NFL start.

To allow the defense to play the bend-not-break strategy, Rivers has to overcome whatever it is the Chiefs have on him. Tossing 3 picks in any game isn't going to end in many wins, let alone against an explosive offense and two-time division champs. Also getting the lead would help put the pressure on Mahomes. If Melvin Gordon, behind an improved o-line, can generate a consistent running game that would also help. It's always a plus to win the time of possession battle against a team with an explosive offense. Gordon has one of the top yards after contact averages in the league...problem is, contact is more often than not happening behind or at the line of scrimmage. The addition of C Mike Pouncey and LG Dan Feeney in his 2nd year should yield better blocking. For what it's worth, LT Russell Okung graded out as the best run blocker in the preseason by Pro Football Focus. How all this shakes out when the real games start is yet to be seen.

I can't imagine the pressure on Kaleb Sturgis if this game comes down to a FG in the waning seconds. I'm hoping the Chargers can somehow break the KC curse (8 straight loses) and find a way to win it convincingly. I wouldn't bet on it though.