NFL Week 4 Thoughts

The game was close...closer than it should have been. The game couldn't have started any worse with Phillip Rivers throwing a pick-6 on their first possession to a team that didn't have an interception yet this season. But that's not what got me worried. It's the defense that's making me question whether this Charger team can put together enough wins to make the playoffs.

I can overlook the defense not getting the job done against KC and the Rams (is that a band?) with "Money" Mahomes and the return of "The Greatest Show on Turf." But Josh Allen was successful enough to  get Buffalo 20 points and CJ Beathard, starting his first NFL game, moved the ball consistently leading the 49ers to 27 pts. Remember that the Chargers allowed only 17 pts/game last year.

What's the difference? The ability to pressure the QB consistently. The Chargers had 43 in 2017 (2.7 sacks/game). So far this season they have 8 which projects to 32 for 16 games. That's not a significant difference, but looking even deeper into the numbers, three of the Sacks this year has come from rookie Safety Derwin James. Quick math tells me that the front seven is only accounting for 62.5% of the sacks. Last year the front seven accounted for 38.5 of the 43 sacks (.895). You don't even have to dig into the numbers, just watch the game. The opposing QBs have had lots of time unless the Chargers have blitzed.

I have a hard time believing that Joey Bosa makes that much of a difference, but he's the only difference between 2017 and 2018. In fact, excluding Bosa, this defense should be better than last season with the addition of James. Yes Corey Liuget is also out (4 game suspension) and he is a key interior defensive lineman, but he only had 1.5 sacks last year. Liuget returns next week, so we'll see how much a difference he makes.

I also wonder how Kaleb Sturgis missed back-to-back extra points. Is there that much pressure to make a kick now? Thankfully Sturgis came through with what ended up as the game winning FG.

Turnovers were the saving grace for the Chargers D. Trevor Williams picked off a deflected pass and returned it 86 yards in the 3rd quarter. Beathard had led a drive down to the Chargers 8, trailing just 17-23. The second pick of Beathard came courtesy of a James blitz giving DL Isaac Rochell his first career interception.

It was also nice to see the Chargers throw to get the first down and put the game away instead of just running it 3 times and kicking a FG, which would have given the 49ers a last desperate drive chance of winning the game.


And my thoughts on rest of the games this week...

I still think the Browns got robbed despite the NFL explaining the call to re-spot the ball after the Browns got the game clinching first down. Yea, an NFL spokesman said Replay Command had an angle that showed Carlos Hyde's elbow hitting the ground with the ball short of the first down, but as far as I know that replay has never been shown and also as far as I know they have the same replays that the broadcast team has. No exclusive video that is only available to the NFL Replay Command. I know the Raiders still had to drive for the tying score and win it in OT, so you can't pin the loss solely on that call, but when it happens to a team like the Browns you gotta wonder.

I feel sorry for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Did he have an awful game against the Bears? No argument, but it's not like other QBs never had a bad game before. It also was going to be a tough game to win with the Bucs were giving up 5 TD passes by Mitchell Trubisky...in the first half! Fitz is a gambler who is going to take chances when his team falls behind. Doesn't always work out, but it was like that with Brett Favre. Am I saying he's as good as Farvre? Of course not, but Fitz is better than a lot of QBs that are starting this season. He's a career 59.9 percent passer that was completing 67.4 percent this year and despite the Bucs defense giving up a league worse 139 points in 4 games, managed to win 2 of them. He was also leading the league in passing yards.

The Tennessee Titans are 3-1 having just beaten the Jaguars and Eagles. I was wondering how? Nothing about this team is special, yet they are finding ways to win. 9-6 wining score in Jacksonville (when was the last time both teams were under 10 in a game?) and Marcus Mariota was having a terrible game in the first half against Philly. Down 17-3 midway through the 3rd, Mariota somehow led his team to 20-20 tie, then the gaming winning TD in OT. Good thing they didn't bench him at halftime (Yes that was a Fitzpatrick reference).

I still think the Patriots are in trouble. Yea, I've been there before, and so has the Pats. But this Pats team is short on play makers. Sure they crushed the Dolphins, but was anybody saying Miami was a contender even with the 3-0 start? Sure the Pats will likely make the payoffs because they play in the AFC East, but I don't feel like they'll be a threat in the playoffs this year. Even if Josh Gordon pans out, the defense is lacking in talent.