Chargers - Bills Thoughts

Stop Antonio Gates and you stop the Chargers. That seemed to be what I was reading about the Bills game plan going in to this weeks match up with the Chargers. Gates recorded only 1 catch for 8 yards, but slot receiver Eddie Royal caught 2 TDs. I thought (and a lot of experts did also) that the Chargers would go more to a 2 TE set this year, but so far this season they've mostly gone 3-WR. Against the Bills, the Chargers went to the 2-TE formation enough for 2nd TE LaDarius Green to lead the team with 4 catches. Rivers also proved you can't just sit on the shallow routes...he hit Malcom Floyd for two 49 yarders that set up two scores.

On the Chargers 1st series Danny Woodhead was carted off the field. According to CBS Sports, Woodhead will undergo season-ending surgery. This after losing Ryan Mathews in Week 2. Whether the Chargers had plans to work Donald Brown more into the offense or not, he is now going to be main ball carrier for San Diego. Behind Brown is undrafted free agent Branden Oliver. At 5'7", 208 lbs., Oliver is built a lot like Woodhead,, but is more a one-cut, between the tackles runner. He's a good pass blocker, but hasn't shown good receiving skills. I think he's a good backup for Brown, but he's not going to replace Woodhead's skill set. I expect the Chargers to go after someone to add depth at RB, but the question is who?

Brown gained just 62 yards on 31 carries against the Bills. I know that Buffalo's front seven is stout, but 2.0 yards per carry is pretty pathetic. Hopefully it was just an off game for Brown, who still was productive, catching 5 for 27 yards to finish with 89 total yards from scrimmage. No way Brown, who had never had more that 18 carries in a game, will see 31 carries again this season. With a week of practice, the Chargers will utilize Oliver more.

Thought the offense got too conservative after they went up 20-10. Luckily the defense stepped up and shut Buffalo out in the 4th quarter. They put good pressure on EJ Manual getting a sack and a safety on an intentional grounding call. I thought the Chargers might have trouble containing Manual with Melvin Ingram out, but Dwight Freeney, Kendell Ruiz, and Corey Luiget each recorded a sack.

Last season, the Chargers were giving up 100 yard receiving games to wide receivers almost every week. So far this season they've held Sammy Watkins to 2 catches 19 yards and Percy Harvin to 1 catch 15 yds (leading receivers: Buffalo - CJ Spllier 3-37, Seattle - Jermaine Kearse 4-61) They did give up 5-119 to Michael Floyd in Week 1, but shut out Larry Fitzgerald. Overall, I would say that's an improvement over last year.

Up coming is a stretch of very winnable games for the Chargers (Jaguars, Jets, @Oakland, Chiefs) all ahead of the first match up against the Broncos in Denver. Chargers were very erratic last year because they very dependent on the offense to hold the ball to protect a very suspect defense. While this years' defense has been better, I don't know if they're good enough to win games yet. Charger fans will have a month of football to find out.

Melvin Ingram Placed on IR - Designated to Return

The "Designated to Return" label can only be used on one player per season, so the Chargers won't be able to use the exemption for the remainder of 2014. Ingram suffered a hip injury in last weeks game against the Seahawks. Since 2012, the rule allows a player to return to action instead of missing the entire season as with a non-Designated to Return labeled IR. By the rule, Ingram cannot practice for at least 6-weeks.

This is really disappointing for me as it looked like the combination of Ingram and Dwight Freeney at OLB was causing problems for opposing offenses. Jarret Johnson, who missed the Seattle game because his wife was giving birth, will be back at outside linebacker and rookie Jerry Attaochu will see action as a designated pass rusher. I like Attaochu, he was all over the field in Week 1 against Arizona, but as a rookie he's not an every down player yet. Attaochu is listed as questionable for Sunday. Johnson is in his 12th season (first 9 with Baltimore) the last 3 as the Chargers starting OLB, but isn't the pass rusher that Ingram is. Chargers could also use Tourek Williams, who started last season when Freeney and Ingram were out.

Ingram's speed helped contain Russell Wilson (18 yard rushing) and the Chargers face another mobile QB this week in the Bills' EJ Manual. Johnson is tough against the run, but doesn't have the foot speed to run QB's like Wilson and Manual down from behind like Ingram can. Attaochu has the tools, but don't know how much he will play. 

Some good news for the Chargers...Brandon Flowers, who missed the Seattle game with a groin injury, says he's comfortable running at full speed and cutting, so he should play against the Bills. It will be interesting to see if Flowers or rookie Jason Verrett is on Sammy Watkins. Mel Kiper Jr.'s rookie rankings has Watkins #1 and Verrett #2.

The Chargers can beat anyone if the offense keeps the ball in their hands. That's the key to every Chargers game. Although Ingram's absence will be missed, Donald Brown's performance in place of Ryan Mathews will make more of an impact. If Brown can replace Mathew's production the offense has a good chance of dominating time of possession. If they do that, the Chargers win Sunday over the Bills.

Did the Chargers Show the Broncos How to Beat Seattle?

Watching the Chargers-Seahawks game on NFL Rewind. With the Broncos-Seahawks rematch coming up Sunday everyone is talking about if the Chargers provided the recipe to beat the Legend of Doom. My first reaction is that all the Chargers did was do what they did in almost all of their wins last year...hold the ball forever and protect their defense, which wasn't very good last season.

Right off the first possession for Seattle though I see a different Charger defense. OLBs Melvin Ingram and Dwight Freeney (both missed most of last season and never were on the field at the same time) made big plays. Ingram breaking in to the backfield stopping Robert Turbin for a loss then Freeman sacking Russell Wilson for a loss in back-to-back plays. Ingram picked up another sack on the Seahawks next drive. Chargers kept the pressure on Wilson all game and held him to 18 yards rushing.

The Chargers D also had a great series to seal the win. Seahawks tried the jet sweep to Percy Harvin that got them a TD in the first quarter, but the Chargers dropped Harvin for a loss. Pressure on Wilson made him flip the ball to check offs that the Chargers immediately stuffed for no gain on the next two plays. Last pass on 4th by Wilson had no chance. Rivers then took 3 knees and the Chargers kicked a FG to make the final score 30-21.

The question though, was did the Chargers show how to beat the Seahawks?

Well I saw a lot of things that the Broncos like to do that the Chargers were successful with. Mainly, bunch receiver sets and wide receiver screens. Chargers also went to a lineup with 3 receivers to the left with Gates lined up in a normal TE position on the right side of the line. This put Richard Sherman to the opposite side of the field from his normal position on the right side of the defense. If they split Gates out, then I believe Sherman would pickup Gates as a WR. Gates caught several passes out of this formation, including his first two TDs. I can see the Broncos going to this formation to put their talented TE Demaryious Thomas with the whole right side to work with against LBs and safeties. Will be interesting to see if the Seahawks have an answer for that.

What I saw that I don't believe the Broncos can duplicate is the way Phillip Rivers was able to escape pressure and the versatility of the Chargers' running backs.

While Rivers' mobility is sort of an oxymoron, he was able to escape the pressure several times to make plays including 17 rushing yards. On the last two TDs to Gates, Rivers escaped what could have been sacks before hitting Gates for the TD. Peyton Manning, at this stage in his career, doesn't have the same escapablity (is that a real word).

While RB Monte Ball is a talented back, he isn't a great pass blocker which was why he lost the starting job last year to Knowshon Moreno. All 3 of the Chargers backs (Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead, Donald Brown) can block, catch passes, and are good runners. It made it tough on the Seahawks to key on what the Chargers were going to do by what personnel was on the field. Ball also has just 5 catches through two games and C.J. Anderson has 0 catches so far this season. In this game alone, the Chargers RBs caught 9. WR Malcolm Floyd was shut down by the Seahawks secondary, but the Chargers RBs more than made up for it.

The one thing I really question about the Broncos is their ability to pressure a QB when they have to. Yes, I know that they signed DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller is back from injury. I also know that they recorded 5 sacks in Week 1 versus the Colts and 3 against Kansas City in week 2. The numbers are there, but in both games, with a big lead, the Broncos' D had a hard time putting pressure on the QB allowing both Andrew Luck and Alex Smith to bring their teams back with a shot at winning/tying the game at the end. Give the Broncos defense credit for preventing those scores, but it seems to me like living on the edge. Also, consider that both Indy and KC have offensive line issues.

I'm not saying I think the Broncos can't win. That's a very talented club in Denver that deserves to be the favorite to be the AFC Champion again this season. I just don't think the Broncos can duplicate the "hold the ball" formula the Chargers used to beat the Seahawks. To use a baseball analogy, the Chargers are built to hit singles and doubles. Besides Wes Welker, the Broncos have home run hitters.

The Broncos can win, they just need to do it their way and not try to duplicate someone else. On offense, there is no physical reason they should have been shut down like they were in the Super Bowl.

Mike McCoy was asked after the game what the Chargers did to beat the Seahawks, he said, "We played our game."

Los Angeles Angels 1st Team to Clinch Playoff Spot

Just about two months ago, on August 20th, making the playoffs was in doubt. On that day the Angels held a 1.5 game lead of the A's with a record of 75-50 (.600). Doesn't sound like a team in trouble, but on July 31st starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs was lost to a season ending injury and on that day, August 20th, #1 starter Garrett Richards also was lost for the season. On the 21st many sportscasters were questioning whether the Angels could hold off the A's for the division crown and some even questioned if they had the ability to hold on to a Wild Card spot.

Yesterday, with 8-1 win over division rival Seattle Mariners, the Angels clinched a playoff spot. Angels improved their record to 94-56 (.627) and it was the A's that folded. Angels hold a 10.5 game lead on the A's who only have a 2 game lead on the Mariners for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Angels also hold a 4 game lead over the Orioles for the best record in the league.

But all is not well in Anaheim. Richards was the staff ace sporting a 13-4 record and 2.61 ERA when he went down. The offense has been great, but in the playoffs you're likely to face the opposing teams 1-2 starters twice in a 7 game series. Richards and Jared Weaver would have made a nice 1-2 counter for the Angels. Rookie Matt Shoemaker has helped save the Angels so far going 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA. Shoemaker was called up for several spot starts early in the season, but got a permanent starting gig when Skaggs went down. Yesterday, Shoemaker suffered a mild oblique strain in the 8-1 win over Seattle. He will miss his next start, but hopefully he'll be 100% when the playoffs start.

With the playoffs guaranteed and a likely #1 seed, the question now is whether the Angels can get to and win the World Series without their Ace Garrett Richards.

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

I know the 49ers' defense has been decimated by injuries and suspensions, but they just got ripped apart by two Bears' receivers that could barely run down the field (Marshal and Jeffries nursing leg injuries). Usually the preseason doesn't mean much, but the 49ers struggled during the preseason and struggled against the Bears. I know they won Game 1, but that was more Tony Romo turning the ball over and facing a Cowboy defense that isn't very good. 49ers barely got any pressure on Cutler allowing him to wait on his receivers.

Nice win for the Chargers in their home opener over the defending Champ Seahawks. Offense held the ball for 42:15! You'll win a lot of games keeping the all for that long, especially if the opposing defense has to be on the field in 100 degree temps. Time of Possession was big for the Chargers last year. If they hold the ball, they protect the defense. Chargers led the league in ToP, 10 play drives, and 3rd down conversions last year...when they held the ball, they won.

Rivers to Gates already own the QB-TE TD record at 62...now 65 TDs and counting.

Chargers fans get to see if the money paid to Donald Brown was worth it. Looks like Ryan Mathews may miss significant time (4-5 weeks according to ESPN's NFL Nation). Mathews injured his knee going after a fumble. Chargers made Brown a 3 year, $10 million insurance policy on Mathews.

Now we get to see if Kirk Cousins can really carry the Redskins. Yes, I know the stats favor Cousins and he played great in relief on Sunday, but he was 0-3 last season when he started for RGIII. 

Saints are 0-2. Too early to panic? Maybe, but history tells me that teams that start 0-2 only make the playoffs only 16% of the time.

The NFL is sure taking a PR hit lately. You know all about Ray Rice. The Panthers' Greg Hardy and the 49ers' Ray McDonald also charged with domestic violence. Now Adrian Peterson accused of child abuse (another story on USA Today says Peterson had been previously accused of abusing another son). I know reports are saying that Peterson will play next Sunday, but with this new story coming out I don't know how the NFL or the Vikings can afford the negative PR by allow him to play. Radisson already dropped their sponsorship deal with the Vikings. Covergirl dropped their website featuring "fanicures" after one of their pictures got photoshopped and went viral on social media.

The NFC West was the toughest division coming into the season. Two weeks in both the 49ers and Seahawks are 1-1. The Rams have lost key offensive (Sam Bradford, Tavon Austin) and defensive personnel (Chris Long) to injury. The Cardinals are 2-0, but the health of Carson Palmer is in doubt.

Thoughts This Week (NFL Week 1 addition)

According to SI, Antonio Gates restructured his contract to free up $1.5 million in salary cap space for the Chargers. Gates has two years left on the 6-year, $39 million contract he signed in 2010. He was due $5 million this season, but $3 million was converted to a salary bonus. My question is why now? Do the Chargers need to free up money to make a trade? That would be unusual so early in the year, but I can't think of any other reason why this would be done now.

No link for this one...the Ray Rice story is all over the net. All I'm going to say about it is that justice is finally served. That video takes away any shadow of a doubt that anyone may have had.

Monday Night Football: Kinda hate these double headers...luckily I don't live on the East Coast. Chargers 18-17 lost to the Cardinals was so disappointing on many levels. Phillip Rivers wasn't sharp. Players dropped potential first downs and interceptions. Critical mistakes; an interception, blown coverage to hand the Cards 3 points at the half and a botched snap to take the Chargers out of FG range at the end of the game. Defense couldn't step up to make one play in the Cardinals last two drives...Carson Palmer throws only 1 incomplete pass in those two drives (and it was a sure INT that was dropped) and never got sacked. Still Rivers had 2:25 left and 2 timeouts...and it ends on a dropped passed. Yea, I know it was tipped, but Keenan Allen had both hands on the ball and couldn't hold on. Difference between losing teams and winning teams is the winners find a way to make positive plays and limit negative ones...in a 1 point game only a few of those plays would have made the difference.

Bright spots for the Chargers were the two defensive rookies picked 1-2 by the Chargers in the draft. Jason Verrett held his own against the big Arizona receivers. Jerry Attaochu didn't play a lot, but it seemed like every time he was on the field he made an impact on the game. He made great plays in kick coverage, blocked a punt, and got the strip/sack on Palmer. This Chargers may not be great at getting a team ready early in the season, but their first two drafts have produced 4 potential stars (D.J. Fluker, Keenan Allen last year).

A co-worker and I were discussing all these so-so performances. Tom Brady, Nick Foles took a half to finally get going, even Peyton Manning wasn't sharp. Tony Romo looked terrible in the first half. We wondered if it could be that teams aren't preparing enough in the preseason (they're shorter now and teams are afraid their starters will get hurt). Almost none of the starters play any in the last preseason game. Chargers starters at most played a quarter of the "dress rehearsal" 3rd preseason game and only a series in the previous two. No starter that I remember played in the 4th game. Rivers and the Chargers as a team weren't sharp...even Antonio Gates was dropping passes. Would be interesting to find out how many minutes the teams that played well (Seahawks, Falcons/Saints - at least the offenses, Vikings, Lions) played their starters.

Bulldog over at Nothing If Not Random posted his preseason picks and mentioned the stat that 4-5 teams, on average, make the playoffs that didn't make it the previous season...of course that means 4-5 teams that made it last season don't make it back. Call this 1 game overreaction, but could one of those teams be the Patriots? Sooner or later the mighty have to fall. Could it be this year? Lets imagine the Viks and Lions are for real and it's not a 1 game aberration. Pats go to Minnesota next week and play the Lions in Week 12. They also play the Bengals and Broncos at home and have to go to Green Bay and Indy. Lets image they lose all those games...that's 6 losses and still have the rematch against Miami in Week 15. Can the Pats go 9-7 and miss the playoffs? I would say that's a one game overreaction, but if they lose next week in Minnesota...

It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine the Chiefs and Chargers missing the playoffs this year...that would account for the AFC teams. The NFC is a lot tougher to see a team not repeating. Falcons missed the playoffs last year and made a strong case that they'll be in this year...but who would be out? Packers lost in Week 1, but the Seahawks treat most teams that visit Seattle badly. Arizona was a 10-6 team last year and missed post season play, so they are a strong candidate to make it, but again who's out? Could it be the Saints? Saints and Packers are the only playoff teams to lose in Week 1. Before the season started I thought the Panthers would be one of the teams that miss out, but then they go and win a game with their backup QB at the helm. This was the team that everyone said had no WRs or RBs to help Cam Newton.

How many of you fantasy players have put in for Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Hurns?

Lions adopted the Saints offense this year and Week 1 they did a pretty good Saints imitation. That was an impressive offensive showing. Calvin Johnson is...well Calvin Johnson. Seeing him lineup against DBs...the size difference is alarming...and the guy can leap over tall buildings and is faster than a speeding bullet. Now Detroit has Golden Tate and Reggie Bush playing the role of Darren Sproles. If Stafford holds up his end this could finally be the year for the Lions.

When are the Indianapolis Colts going to admit they made a big mistake in acquiring Trent Richardson? The guy runs hard, but looks slow and doesn't change direction very well. Colts seem blindly committed to this guy for some reason.

After week 1, the #1 RB in fantasy football is Knowshon Moreno and will likely be the starting RB in Miami the rest of the season...how many of you predicted that? Please, drop your hands, I know your lying.

I won't go into why, because you know why, but Justin Forsett will be the #1 most picked up player in Fantasy Football this week.

What I Read This Week (NFL Week 1 edition)

Business Insider (of all the webpages) posted a story on Super Bowl probability. What was interesting was that according to the experts, there were only 7 teams that had a shot at winning the Super Bowl. Broncos were the overwhelming favorite at 26.8%, followed by the Saints (19.5%), then the 49ers, Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, and Eagles.

Seahawks seem low on this list especially after the beat down they put on the Packers Thursday night. Not really feeling the 49ers after their preseason performance and injuries/suspensions on defense.

The interesting thing for me as a Charger fan was the AFC Championship picks. The Broncos are the favorite at a whopping 42.7%, but of the 4 teams that they gave a shot to beat out the Broncos, one of them was the Chargers (although they only gave them a 1.2% chance). To quote Jim Carrey from Dumb and Dumber, "So you're telling me there is a chance...YEAH!"

The other prediction story I saw posted that caught my attention was on Yahoo Sports. It was about a prediction model called Cortana that Microsoft used to predict 15 out of 16 World Cup matches. If you're interested in the nuts and bolts of how Cortana works, you can read about it here. The predictions are for Week 1. Cortana gave the Seahawks a 74.2% chance of beating the Packers, which was the 2nd highest percentage. Cortana gave the Cardinals, the Chargers Week 1 opponent, a 58.2% chance of winning. That was the 2nd lowest chance of victory. Looking at it a from the other side, that means the Chargers have the 2nd best chance of pulling off a Week 1 upset.

History is on the side of the Chargers, according to an article on ESPN called A Tale of Two Mondays. Carson Palmer and the Cardinals have been so-so on Mondays, but Phillip Rivers and the Chargers have been pretty good. Rivers is also used to playing Monday night on the road, having done it 3 of the last 5 seasons.


According to Football Outsiders Defensive Efficiency Ratings, the Chargers were dead last in 2013. That's right, the Chargers had, according to advanced statistics, the worse defensive in the league, and still managed a 9-7 record and a playoff win. Last season, OLBs Dwight Freeney and Melvin Ingram played a total of 8 games combined and 0 games were they were both on the field at the same time. If the duo can stay healthy they will have a big impact on the defense as a whole. Add to that, #1 draft pick CB Jason Verrett and free agent pickup CB Brandon Flowers and they should be much higher on that list this season.

And one time before the season starts...

San Diego Chargers - Thoughts before the season starts

Search on predictions for the San Diego Chargers and you'll see anywhere from going 10-6 and making the playoffs (ESPN) to being a one hit wonder (Bleacher Report). To be honest, I have no idea how this year's Chargers will do. They were a Jekyll and Hyde team last year...beating the Eagles in Philly, upset the Colts, swept the Chiefs, and split games with the Broncos, but also losing to the Texans, Redskins, and Raiders.

While the big questions are on the defensive side of the ball, there are some on the offensive side as well. Phillip Rivers looks like he's back, but fantasy guru's aren't giving him much love. Rivers is ranked as a QB2 in standard 12-team leagues. I picked him up as a backup in one league that has 14 teams and as the last QB1 that came off the board in another league that has 16 teams. While fantasy has nothing to do with reality, his low ranking shows that many experts aren't sold on Rivers' being able to repeat what he did last season. 

I expect big things from the WR position this year. Keenan Allen says he's fully recovered from the knee injury that made teams pass on him in the draft. Allen claimed he wasn't able to run at full speed last year and reports from training camp says Allen is showing a burst that he didn't have before. Not only is Malcolm Floyd back from a neck injury that many thought would end his career, but he is being touted as training camp MVP. Floyd was the Chargers deep threat last season, but that neck injury in Game 2 ended his season. Allen should draw a lot of attention after breaking out last year. Add to that Antonio Gates and a predicted break out year for LaDarius Green...Floyd will get a lot of single coverage.

I'm wondering why the Chargers signed Donald Brown from Indianapolis for 3 years, 10 million. They have to have something planned for him. Remember that Danny Woodhead didn't play much in the preseason last year, but ended up a key piece in the offensive game plan.

New OC Frank Reich plans on doing a version of the K-gun (the offense the Bills ran while Reich was there). The Bills were the first team to run the no-huddle as the main offense and not just in given situations.

Here's the trivia question for you...Why was it called the K-gun? If you said it was named after QB Jim Kelly you would be wrong. It was named after Keith Keller. Keller was a hi-bred TE/FB. Part of the no-huddle strategy is to limit defensive substitutions. NFL substitutions rules state that if the offense makes a substitution, they have to give the defense time to also make a substitution. Keller gave Kelly the ability to call more of the playbook with out changing personnel by being able to lineup at FB or TE.

So what is one of the 1st things the Chargers do in the off season? They pick up David Johnson a hybrid FB/TE. Many people thought the Chargers' would go to a 2TE set, but everyone, including myself figured it would be Gates and Green...now it looks like it will be Johnson and Gates or Green. One of the things I'll be looking for in Week 1 is how often Johnson will be on the field. 

While I can't wait to see the offense in action, the Chargers will still be around a  .500 team again this season unless the defense gets better.

The big issues were bad corner play and an inability to generate consistent pressure on the QB. A bad combination in the modern NFL passing age. Not surprisingly the Chargers were ranked 29th in defense last season...which makes the Playoff appearance last year even more amazing. You also have to question how the Chargers defense managed to hold the Broncos' record setting offense to their lowest point total of the season (not counting the Super Bowl). The offense was more exceptional than they were being given credit for. They led the league in time of position and 3rd down conversion rate which protected the defense by limiting the other teams offensive possessions. 

The Chargers drafted CB Jason Verrett with their 1st pick and picked up Brandon Flowers when the Chiefs released him. While neither played much in the preseason due to nagging injuries, both are reported to be good for the season opener against the Cardinals.

The inability to generate a pass rush had more to do with injuries than lack of ability. OLB Melvin Ingram was lost during the preseason. Dwight Freeney was lost in Game 2. If they can avoid the injury bug this season the pass rush will be markedly better than last season. While it was only preseason, with Freeney at OLB, DT Cory Liuget looked like the disruptive force he was two years ago.

While I don't expect the Chargers to become a top 10 defense, any sort of improvement would go a along ways toward improving on last seasons 9-7 record and both the secondary and pass rush should improve this season barring injuries.

One thing the offense didn't do well at is scoring TDs. Chargers ranked 23rd in Red Zone TD percentage and 28th in TD percentage when goal-to-go. Chargers don't have a true power running game and defenses bracketed Gates in the Red Zone last season. The return of the 6' 5" Floyd will give Rivers another big target. TE/FB Johnson will provide more versatility. Ryan Mathews runs hard and has good speed, but isn't a power back...could Brown become the Red Zone back? 

Questions, questions...the answers will start Monday night.

San Antonio Spurs Tribute

I was going to post about the Spurs winning the Championship, but then I ran into this on YouTube...pretty much says it all. Captured the heartbreak of last year, the tentative feelings on making it back to the Finals, and Finally the Joy and amazement on how the Spurs played...all to a pretty good musical score. I especially liked how the music built momentum from Game 3 on. It was like a wave that kept building and couldn't be stopped...sort of like how the Spurs gained more momentum as the series went on.

Better than words...