The crowd in Oracle Arena was rocking and the Warriors had just taken the lead 11-9 on a Harrison Barnes jumper when I tuned into the game. As I watched the quarter unfold I felt the Spurs had this one. Every bucket I saw was from an assist. Looking back at the play-by-play (thank you Pro Basketball Reference), every bucket the Spurs made in the first quarter was assisted. Despite only a 21-19 lead and a hostile crowd, I felt good about the Spurs chances.
This was the first game of the series the Spurs didn't lose a quarter (21-19, 26-21, 19-19, 28-23). They pulled it off even with Tony Parker having a terrible shooting game (3-16), committing more turnovers (14-12), and losing the offensive rebounding battle (6-11). Any other game that would have equaled a loss.
The Warriors just shot poorly, but with all the starters (except Curry) and 6th man Jarrett Jacket all shooting above their season averages, it was going to happen. The question was whether it would happen before this series was over. Warriors shot .388 overall and just .250 from 3-PT range. Maybe that had something to do with the Spurs defense, but as I mentioned it in my last post, the averages had to catch up to the Warriors sooner or later.
The scrappy Warriors still made it a game (Parker and Manu Ginobili shooting a combined 4-22 helped), getting to within 77-75 with 4:52 left. Curry missed two jumpers that could have tied it. Then Parker, who had made only one shot up to that point, canned a BIG 3. The game was never in doubt again as the Spurs outscored the Warriors 17-7 the rest of the way.
Finally, the Spurs found the offense that helped them hold the best record in the Western Conference for much of the season. They had 27 assists on 33 made baskets. Everyone got involved with all five starters scoring in double figures. Tim Duncan led the team with just 19 PTS. Ginobili, who had just 5 points, had 11 ASTS. Still waiting for Manu to find his shot (1-6 in Game 6).
Back to San Antonio to face the Grizzlies on Sunday. A team that bounced the Spurs out of the 1st round two years ago when that team couldn't handle Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.
I believe this years Spurs are better equipped to deal with the Grizzlies than the 2010-11 team. Besides Duncan, the front line back then consisted of Antonio McDyess who was about 50 (actrually he was 38), DeJuan Blair (tough guy, but he's a midget in Power Forward/Center standards), and Richard Jefferson, who started as the Spurs power forward in 2010-11. At 6-10, 240 lbs you would think that you could add Matt Bonner to that list, but if you even watched one game of the Spurs you would know Bonner can't guard anyone in the low post. The Red Rocket is a heck of a shooter and you can't help but love the guys effort, but the truth is he's a liability on defense.
This year's Spurs isn't a great front line defensive team, but they are better than the 2010-11 team. While Duncan, Bonner, and Blair are still there, the Spurs now have the 6'11" Tiago Splitter and a tough interior defender in Boris Diaw. They also have the 6-10 Aron Baynes if anyone gets into early foul trouble. Baynes is a rookie from Washington State and has played limited minutes this season, but his per 36 minute stats shows he can be an effective player.
All that said, this is going to be a tough match up for the Spurs. Splitter isn't a great defender, but his size helps. I agree with many of the sportscasters that say the Grizzlies are better without Rudy Gay. The offense now runs entirely through Randolph and Gasol and they are a more efficient scoring team because of that. It also compliments their defense which is 1st in points allowed. Popovich's M.O. is to rotate guys against the other teams main scorers, hoping to wear them down.
An effective strategy if the Spurs can get the lead or at least keep the game close, forcing Randolph and Gasol to play big minutes. Pace will be important...making those guys sprint up and down the court will help wear them out.
Mike Conley and Tony Allen are great perimeter defenders (#3 and #6 in steals this season and 2012-13 1st team NBA All-defensive members). A big key for the Spurs is to get points before the Grizzlies can set their defense. They are going to want to push the pace, but have to be wary of those guys. "Hurry, but don't rush" should be the Spurs motto for this series. Parker-Conley is going to by an interesting match up. Conley is averaging 17.6 PTS and 7.6 ASTS in the playoffs, so you can't sleep on him defensively. Allen and Danny Green are almost mirror images of each other, except Green is the much better 3-PT shooter.
Spurs split the season series 2-2, wining both home games. Two went into overtime, they split those 1-1. All four games were while Gay was still on the team. The two wins were by an average of 12 points (4, 21). Looking at the box scores for the two wins, they shot terrible in one (Grizzlies just shot worse, .416-.364), and great in the other (.579). The two losses where by a combined 5 points (3, 2).
All this just tells me how evenly these two teams are matched. Usually when teams are this even, something (or someone) shows up to tip the scales. I don't see Parker dominating Conley or Duncan having easy success against Gasol. What I do see is that Manu Ginobili should have a big advantage on anyone coming off the Grizzlies bench. Kwahi Leonard should be able to outplay Tashun Prince. Prince was once a very good player, but hasn't made the NBA All-defensive team since 2007-08 and is scoring just 7.5 per game in the playoffs. Leonard has been very good in the playoffs so far, hitting on .556 of his shots, making clutch buckets, and also averaging 8.4 REBs.
My predictions for the series....
Randolph has one of those can't miss games and leads the Grizzlies to a win. Gasol has a great all around game, double-double points & rebounds, a bunch of assists and plays solid defense. He's the difference in a tight game and gets them another win. They get a third win from a gritty defensive effort where they just shut down the Spurs offense.
Manu finally gets hot off the bench. He carries the scoring load in the 4th and gets the Spurs a win. The Spurs get another win when their bench out scores the Grizzlies bunch by a ton. The Grizzlies bench players have a game where they can't find the basket. Manu has an average game, but the rest of bench (Gary Neal, Bonner, Diaw) all make contributions. Leonard and Green get hot from 3-PT range and make a difference in another win. Leonard has one of those super efficient games that he has from time-to-time. The duo also get a few fast breaks going off of great defense and Leonard has a double-double (PTS-REBS). Pop comes up with a wrinkle to free Parker up and he responds with a big game in points and assists. With Parker going good, the offense comes together for a good all around team win.
That's 4-3 Spurs...not necessarily in that order.
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