San Antonio Spurs - NBA Playoffs

I usually type out a post on Sunday nights while I settle down and relax for the evening, but since the Spurs are playing tomorrow night I figured I would put out my thoughts on the Spurs-Lakers series.

This one has me worried, and it's not just the fact that the Spurs have played terrible down down stretch (3-7 over the last 10, losing their last 3 games) and the Lakers have played their best ball of the season (8-2 over the last 10, 5 straight wins including a win over the Spurs in LA).  The biggest weakness the Spurs is their low post defense.  While Tim Duncan is having a renaissance year he no longer can bang with the physical low post centers...in fact, most of the time the Spurs have protected Duncan from having to fill that duty.  Defending the low post big bangers was David Robinson's job, then Resho Nesterovic's job, then Nazr Mohammed...not until the 4th Championship was Duncan the main low post defender.  Duncan is still a very effective off ball defender (that's how he gets the majority of his blocks these days), but he no longer can effectively deal with a power player in the post.

Case in point was the 91-89 loss to the Lakers in their last meeting.  In the past, you knew Kobe was going to put up somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 shots...more if he was feeling it.  The low post options for the Lakers where secondary.  If the ball went into the post, it wouldn't stay there long, and if it came out, it wasn't likely to get re-posted.  Don't get me wrong, if the game gets down to the end and it's close, I'm going to be glad that Kobe isn't there, but if you watched the last Spurs-Lakers game, they went low post and ran everything off of Howard...and if the ball came out and Howard fought for position, the ball went back to him.  The wing players only shot when they were open, which was often because Duncan couldn't handle Howard on his own, forcing the double-team.  Pop is going to have to dust off the old Spurs defensive rotations from when the Lakers had Shaq.


The Spurs post defense is better this year than when they got bounced in the first round by the Grizzlies in 2010-11 when they couldn't handle Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph thanks to a big improvement in play by Tiago Splitter, but they've lost some low post defense depth with Boris Diaw out.   I still think they can defend Pau Gasol and Howard enough that they can win the series....if Tony Parker is healthy.  Parker hasn't been 100% and had to come out of the Laker game and didn't play the majority of the 4th quarter.  He sat out the next game against the Warriors and put in just short of 27 minutes in the season ending game against the T-wolves.  Parker hit 9-9 FTs and had 8 assists, but shot just 3-10 and didn't play in the 4th quarter.

The Spurs have a big advantage on the perimeter with Kobe out.  Steve Nash can't guard Parker.  Manu Ginobili is back (but his only played limited minutes so far).  Pop is giving Kwahi Leonard more offensive touches and he can both shot the three and, unlike the other Spurs wing players, is athletic and can finish at the rim. From reading reports around the net, I'm convinced that Tracy McGrady can also give the Spurs some production. 


I figure a hot shooting night by the Lakers wings' will get them a game...foul trouble by Duncan and/or Splitter may cost the Spurs another one. 

My gut has me worried about this series, but in the end, my head tells me the Spurs have more ways they can win than the Lakers.  Duncan and drives by Parker and Leonard could get Gasol and/or Howard in foul trouble.  Nash can't guard Parker, so if his jumper is on, Nash is a liability on  defense.  In fact if Parker is on, no one on the Lakers can handle him.  The Spurs have more players that can light it up from 3-pt range.  The Spurs' defense is much improved (and better overall than the Lakers' D) with Leonard in his 2nd season doing a Bruce Bowan impression (only cleaner and more of a threat on offense) and Splitter finally showing that he has some form of coordination (although he's still soft on the offensive end).  Speaking of Leonard, he has the tools to be a go to guy on offense, it's just a matter of him gaining the confidence to do so.  He's shown signs this year and Pop has encouraged it.  If McGrady's knees are good (and from what I've seen, they are), his length will contribute on the defensive end as well (although I don't know how much Pop will play him since he's been with the team only a few days).

While Duncan and Splitter won't be able to shut down Howard and Gasol, they can at least make them work for their shots....and Howard can't be on the floor if the game is tight in the closing minutes due to his poor free throw shooting.  Without Kobe, the Lakers lose the edge in close games down the stretch.

Add the above to the fact that, with a healthy Parker and contributions from Manu and McGrady, the Spurs should be able to get back to the motion offense that was so productive earlier in the year and I believe the Spurs still take this series...although not easily. 

I'm thinking Spurs in 6.