Monday, April 1, 2013

March Madneess, Final Four, and MLB Opening Day,

My bracket is busted…completely, utterly destroyed.  In retrospect I should have believed in Louisville.  I should have listened to those people talking about Wichita State…including one of my coworkers.  I shouldn’t have dismissed Michigan.   I shouldn’t have gone the homer pick with Kansas (although they should have beaten Michigan if they could have taken care of the ball at the end of game or hit one more free throw).   

Hindsight might be 20/20, but it also wants to make you kick yourself in the butt for looking at things with your heart and not your head. 
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Of the Final Four teams, Louisville has been the team that has looked the best...which is obviously why they where the overall #1 and guys like me shouldn't have picked against them. If that wasn't enough, now they have the incentive to "Win it for Kevin."

A co-worker and I were talking about Syracuse today and wondering why teams where having so much trouble with their defense.  After all it's just a 2-3 zone, a defense that you learned to play when you first played organized ball.  Just goes to show you that if you have athletic players that know how to play together as a unit they can make a coach look like a genius.  Not to take anything away from Boheim, he's a great coach, but you're not doing anything special playing 2-3 zone. 

The team that has surprised me the most is Michigan (thought I was going to say Wichita State didn't you).  Coming into the tournament they weren't playing good basketball and didn't play tough defense.  They've got some streaky guys (Tim Hardaway Jr. & Trey Burke) that can light it up from the outside though.  Can they come through for an entire 6 game tournament?  I would bet not.  Despite playing zone, Syracuse closes out well against 3-point shooters and because of that zone, I believe this is the game that Hardaway and Burke struggle to find a way to get it done offensively.

Wichita State is a very solid team.  They look very balanced on offense with a disciplined, good rebounding defense.  I think they would beat Syracuse or Michigan...unfortunately they're playing Louisville.  They'll give Louisville a game, but in the end I think the talent on Louisville gives them the edge.  

So I have Louisville vs Syracuse in the Championship game with the Cardinals solving the Orange 2-3 zone and win it all.  I just don't see a 2-3 zone beating a talented club coached by Rick Pitino. 
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My favorite MLB, the Angels, open the season today against the Cincinnati Reds.  It’s  an odd coincidence that Josh Hamilton, the Angels big offseason signing, started his MLB career in Cincy (he was originally drafted #1 overall by Tampa Bay in 1999, but had several off field issues which eventually got Hamilton suspended.  He was picked up in the 2006 Rule 5 draft by the Cubs, who traded him to the Reds for cash).   Acquiring Hamilton in the off season, just like picking up Pujols last season, has made the Angels a preseason favorite to win the World Series…of course we all know how that turned out last season.  Both Texas and Oakland finished ahead of the Angels, who missed the Playoffs for the 3rd straight year.  The combination of Pujols-Hamilton gives the Angels one of, if not the best, 3-4 combo of hitters in the league.  With Trout leading off the Angels shouldn’t have problems scoring runs  (unless Hamilton repeats Pujols start last year).

Speaking of Trout, a lot of sports media folks are wondering if he will have a down season.  How can he not have a down season?   Trout didn’t get called up to the big leagues until the end of April and still did something no other major leaguer has done (steal 45 bases, score 125 runs, and hit 30 homers in the same season).   If you projected his stats to a full 162 games it would look like this:  .326 BA, 150 Rs, 97 RBI, 35 HR, 57 SB.  He also had a .564 slugging % and .963 OB % (that’s with a slump at the end of the year, hitting just .257 in September).    Yea sure, like he’s going to be able to surpass that this year.    I’ll take 80% of that and call it a good season.

My concern is with the starting pitching. 

Jeff Weaver had another good year (20-5, 2.81 ERA), but faded towards the end of the season (6.14 ERA in his last five starts). Weaver and C.J. Wilson are the only two returning from last season's starting rotating. I thought Zack Greinke might stay, but he signed with the Dodgers.  Dan Haren is in Washington and Ervin Santana is in Kansas City. Greinke was a late season pickup, Haren lost it last year, and Santana was always inconsistent.  Their replacements are Tommy Hanson, Joe Blanton, and Jason Vargas.  Don't know if those are upgrades or not. 

In the end, Mark Trumbo may determine the Angels' destiny.  Hitting 5th behind Pujols & Hamilton he should see more people on the bases when he comes up to bat.  Last season, Trumbo was outstanding before the All-star break (.306, 22 HR, 57 RBI), then faded in the 2nd half (.227, 88 SO).  Trumbo is the wildcard of the Angels offense, potentially turning them from good to great if he swings the bat well.  With Torii Hunter and Kendrys Morales gone, I don't see anyone else in the lineup that can give the Angels extra offense outside of Pujols and Hamilton. 

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