It's March

And that means the big dance starts on Thursday (technically it starts on Tuesday with the play in games, but does anyone not involved in those schools care?).  This weekend is when all the craziness happens and this year a lot of sportscasters are predicting the tourney to be crazier than most.

Recently, we've had three have been the craziest ever (in terms of lower seeds making the Final Four.  2011 when Uconn (3), Kentucky (4), Butler (8), and VCU (11) made the Final Four and 2006 when the Final Four was UCLA (2), Florida (3), LSU (4), and George Mason (11).  If you add up the totals of the ranks of the 4 teams, 2011 (26) and 2006 (20) are the #1 and #3 highest (1980 had Louisville (2), Iowa (5), Purdue (6) and UCLA (8), a total of 21). The lowest ever?  2008, the one and only time all four #1s made the Final Four (Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA).  If I had my old sports blog up I could have pointed you to the article where I predicted that Final Four...you're just going to have to take my word for it.  I also took Kansas to win it all, but that was a homer pick...one that just happened to be right.

I like Kansas again this year.  Yea, I know two weeks ago I was going crazy over how inconsistent the Jayhawks have been, but they've gone out and won the Big 12 tourney since then.  They are also returning four seniors from a team that lost the championship game to Kentucky last year.  The lone freshman, SG Ben McLemore leads the Jayhawks in scoring. The big loss from last season was PF Thomas Robinson, but his backup from last season, Kevin Young has stepped in nicely.  Young and C Whithey aren't as adept as scoring one-on-one as Robinson was, but the two post players have a nice inside game between them.  There were several pretty feeds from Young to Whithey in the Big 12 Finals game.  In winning the Big 12 tourney they had to go through Kansas State and Iowa State, both teams making the big dance (4 and 10 in the West).  I like K-state's chances of making the Sweet 16, but both teams are likely to fall to Ohio State. 

While this has been one of the crazier seasons I can remember, after looking at things I still believe the cream will rise to the top.  While I think the #1s may be vulnerable, the #2s have a great shot.


Ohio State (2) should have plenty of incentive to get back to the Final Four after losing to Kansas in the semis last year and I feel they are more solid than any of the #1s.  They will face some good teams in Iowa State (10) and New Mexico (3), but they can beat them.  Love Gonzaga (1), but they'll likely fall to Pittsburgh (8) or Kansas State (4). Evey one is talking about the Midwest being tough (and it is), but the West may be just as tough.  I have Ohio State beating K-state to get to the Final 4.

In the Midwest, Duke (2) has a pretty easy run to the Great 8, likely facing Creighton (8) (love that team, but not likely to challenge Duke) and either Memphis (6),  that hasn't beaten anyone of note or Michigan State (3) that hasn't played well down the stretch.  Louisville will be tested some, but they are the overall #1 for a reason.  I'm not as high on Oregon (12) as others are.  The ducks had a Strength of Schedule ranked 101 and an RPI of 47.  I like Ohio State and Duke to face each other in the Final Four, with Duke upsetting Louisville to get there.

Miami (2) looks like the best team in the East and peaking coming into the tourney.  The only problem with the Hurricanes is their lack of tournament experience.  Can they go 6 games in-a-row without having a let down?  Or can they find a way to survive when that let down comes?  The problem is finding a team that can beat them.  Marquette (3) hasn't shown it can win away from home and Illinois (7) crashed after a hot start.  That leaves Butler (6) to face them in the Sweet 16...I'm taking Miami.  I'm thinking UNLV has a good chance of facing Miami out of the top of the East, beating 4 seed Syracuse (4-5 in their final 9 games) and #1 Indiana (3-3 in their final 6 games) along the way.  I just can't see UNLV beating Miami, so I have the Hurricanes moving on to the Final Four. 

In the South, #2 Georgetown has been playing great.  Hard to figure any of the teams in the bottom of that bracket beating them.  UCLA is without it's 2nd leading scorer and everyone else struggled in the 2nd half of the season.  In the top half, I already said I was going with KU, but the match-ups against North Carolina and VCU are tough.  Then they would have to face Georgetown.  If they get to the Final Four, Kansas will have earned it. 

So my Final Four is Duke (2), Ohio State (2), Kansas (1) and Miami (2)...and if I wasn't a KU fan I would likely have picked Georgetown (2) in the Final Four.