Monday, August 27, 2018

Farewell to Manu

I will always remember Charles Barkely shouting "MANU GIN-O-BIL-I."

You've probably already read or heard the stats. A career winning percentage of .721 (762-295), the best career winning percentage in NBA history among players with over 1,000 career games. Spurs all-time leader in 3-pointers made (1,495) and steals (1,392). Four NBA Championships, 218 Playoff Games. Ginobili and LeBron James are the only NBA players to score 3,000 points and make 300 three-pointers in the playoffs. All-time leader in bench points (2,014), assists (576), rebounds (635), steals (205), field goals (630), 3-pointers (226) and free throws (528). Combined with Tony Parker, has the most recorded wins (132) by a duo in postseason history. Along with Tim Duncan and Parker, won 575 games, the most by a trio in NBA history.

I will always remember the "Euro-step."

The first South American to earn All-NBA honors and the first South American to play in 1,000 games for a single NBA team. Ginobili and Bill Bradley are the only players in basketball history to win a EuroLeague title, NBA Championship, and an Olympic gold medal.

I will always remember Pop saying, "It's just Manu being Manu."

Manu was just an unknown foreign player (at least in the USA) when he was drafted 57th overall in 1999. He didn't even jump over to the NBA until 2002. Fittingly, Manu's 1st ever points in the NBA came from a 3-pointer. 16 years later we have come to an end of an era, Ginobili being the last of the Big 3 to leave the Spurs. If it wasn't for the uniforms I wouldn't be able to recognize this Spurs team when it takes the court next season.

All the major sports outlets and shows are paying tribute to the Argentine, but my favorite comes from the Official Site of the San Antonio Spurs where they've posted several videos featuring the future Hall-of-Famer.



Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Los Angels Chargers - Preseason look after the first 2 games

Half way through the preseason seems like a good time to take a look at what's going on with the Chargers. Questions that have risen to the top of the list...

Who will be the FG kicker? 
Caleb Sturgis is listed at the top of the depth chart over Roberto Aguayo. In the vacuum of two 2018 preseason games Sturgis is 1 of 2 in FGs and Aguayo is 5-5 in extra points and made his lone FG attempt. The story is in their pasts. Aguayo has more to prove since he was a draft bust making only 71% of his FG attempts in his lone season in Tampa Bay (2016). Sturgis made 84.8% of his attempts in 3 seasons with the Eagles, only losing his job last season when he got injured. I'm not in the know about what's going on in practice and you can't evaluate kick offs unless you know what the plan is (are you trying to kick to specific area to force a return or going for distance an force the touch back) so maybe Stugis is establishing himself in practice. IMO this is still wide open.

Which TE's will be on the Chargers roster in Week 1?
With Antonio Gates released and his promising replacement Hunter Henry out for the season former Bronco Virgil Green is listed as the starter, but he's primarily a blocking TE and none of the rest have been receiving threats in college. One of the front runners is former Missouri Tiger Sean Culkin who made an impression in the first preseason game against Arizona. What really caught my attention was that the Chargers signed ex-Seahawk TE Je'Ron Hamm after that game. I'm not sure why they would sign Hamm, who is on the small size for a TE and doesn't have anything that stands out in his resume. Up until they signed Hamm I though Green and Culkin would be the only TEs. Now I'm not sure what the Chargers are trying to do.

Who will be the backup QB?
I was rooting for Cardale Jones and wasn't a fan of Geno Smith. Word out of camp is that the competition is "neck-and-neck," but after watching 2 preseason games it's obvious that it's Smith position to lose. The eye test tells me Smith has more command of the offense. He's more decisive and is more accurate. Jones should have had the advantage since he came to the Chargers last season, but it's obvious to me that, right now, Smith is the better QB.

How are the young guns doing?

The Mike Williams hype was growing in camp. Reports were streaming in about Williams standing out in practice. Head Coach Anthony Lynn even added to the hype, saying that Williams size reminded him of Terrell Owens. In the annual Blue-White game (an inter-squad scrimmage) Williams caught two impressive TDs. But that's practice. "Practice?!" (Okay, I was tempted but won't do it :-D). When the fake real (read preseason) games started Williams had a ho-hum 2 catch 16 yard performance in Game 1. Then he showed why he was drafted 7th overall last year in Game 2. Still over hyped, but with Keenan Allen drawing the #1 CB and Tyrell Williams/Travis Benjamin attracting safety attention with their speed, Mike Williams will have a lot of changes to duplicate this highlight.

Last year's 2nd round draft pick, OL Forrest Lamp still isn't 100%. Lamp suffered a season ending ACL tear last year and was released off the PUP list but still hasn't played in the preseason. Lamp is expected to take the RG spot occupied by Michael Schofield. IMO RT Barksdale is the weak link of the OL and Schofield played RT in 5 Games last season when Barksdale was injured. I would guess that Schofield would slide over to RT if Lamp is ready to play. Still the odds of  Lamp starting in Week 1 lowers with each passing preseason game.

Are there any surprises?
There's the season ending injuries to Hunter Henry and CB Jason Verrett. Hunter was set for a breakout year with the release of Gates. Verrett's story is tragic. A Pro Bowl DB that had a season ending injury in Week 1 last year and now a season ending injury before playing a game. It's unfortunate, but it looks like another "he had the talent, but injury shortened his career" story.

Relatively unknown RB Detrez Newsome drew some attention in Game 1 versus Arizona showing good speed and quickness in catching 4 passes for 36 yards and also had a 37 yd TD run called back for holding. He followed that up with 19 carries for 78 yards against Seattle.  Highly touted rookie Justin Jackson is nursing a hamstring injury and hasn't been in either preseason game. Newsome is making a strong case for making the team.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

NFL Preseason -- Does It Matter?

Pre-season games, BAH! Who cares right?

Well USA Today posted an article titled "The NFL Preseason Matters More Than You Think." In this era of Big Data and Advanced Analytics the data is out there for any and all to see and use. The question mark comes from the "Analytics" part. What data is relevant and how do you use it?

The USA Today article title is misleading. In my opinion, the data shows that preseason records are totally irrelevant.  At first they had me going with a chart that showed that 75% of the teams that finish with 2 or more wins made the playoffs. That's a pretty significant percentage. Sure there's that 1 in 4 team that makes the playoffs with 1 win or less, but 3 out of 4 is a lot better odds.

Then they showed the 2nd Chart. Basically it shows that 75% of the teams (data collected over 5 years) finished with 2 or more wins. Of those teams, 40% made the playoffs. Of the 0 win preseason teams, you guessed it, 40% of the teams made the playoffs. There were just a lot less of them, which accounts for the 25/75 split in the first chart. The 1-win teams made it only 28% of the time, but even the article admits that it's probably just an outlier and it would probably move more towards 40% with a bigger sampling size.

Really, the preseason records don't matter. What a Shocker huh?

Just before the NFL draft I read an article about analytics in regards to drafting players (I would link it if I could find it). They interviewed several organizations and basically what it came down to was using analytics to back up your findings. It's when the numbers don't match what your findings tell you that you have to reevaluate. They gave an example of how every successful edge rusher in the NFL has a 10-time (the time a player takes to go 10 yards from a three-point stance) under a given time that I can't remember. They zeroed in on two unnamed players. One had the quickest 10-time ever recorded. He had top 5 totals in sacks and pressures in college, but scouts questioned his strength and technique. The other player also had top 5 totals in sacks and pressures. Great work ethic, great technique, overpowering at times...but a 10 time that was slower than any successful edge rusher in the NFL today.

Both were drafted (I don't remember how long ago). Where are they today? Both are out of the league. Neither made it. The Analytics lesson? If there's a data point that matters don't ignore it. But it's also not the only thing. One rep for an organization that wasn't named even said that they've been doing Advance Analytics for decades, they just didn't call it that and that the data available now is so much more that you need people just to make sense of it all.

So back to preseason games. Players are playing that won't be around when the season starts. Established starters may play 3-4 quarters out of the 4 games...some not at all. Most coaches are running vanilla game plans. They are not trying to create mismatches, on the contrary, they are trying to put players in certain match ups so they can evaluate them. There are several players on the field still learning the offense/defense so the pace is slower. Put those findings altogether and reasonable thinking is that the preseason records don't matter....and the data backs it up.

Thursday, August 9, 2018

The San...Los Angeles Chargers

"Just win, baby!"

Okay, so that used to be the slogan of another team that used to be in Los Angeles, but that is what it's going to take for the Chargers to get fans to support them.

I don't remember any 49er fans before Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Ditto for Patriots fans before Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Once they started winning the fans followed.

The hype surrounding the Chargers this year is over the top. This for a team that went 9-7 last year. A team that hasn't beaten the defending AFC West Champs, the KC Chiefs since 2013. A team with no home field advantage and will play one of those home games in London. A team that seemingly has to overcome early injuries every season. In 2017 it was 1st and 2nd round picks G Forest Lamp and WR Mike Williams. CB Jason Verrett was lost for the season in the 1st game. 2018 is no exception with Antonio Gates heir apparent TE Hunter Henry and CB Jason Verrett is again out for the year.

Still, I can see why sportscasters are predicting good things. Despite an 0-4 start, they were the #1 offense in passing yards and the #3 defense in points against. This team has talent at every position. Under Offensive Coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, Philip Rivers has had two Pro Bowl seasons. He regressed last season when Whisenhunt left for a Head Coaching job only to return as OC the following year. Rivers was only sacked 18 times and the Chargers' added C Mike Pouncey, a 3-time Pro Bowler, in free agency. Lamp will also get his chance this season. The WR core is deep and talented and Mike Williams is reported to be making an impact in training camp this year.

Despite the loss of Verrett, the DBs are stacked and the Chargers added #1 pick S Derwin James. This defense led the league in fewest passing yards allowed. Everyone knows about Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The defensive coordinator is Gus Bradley who created the "Legion of Boom" in Seattle.

Still there are issues...

Can they get past the KC Chiefs? The Chiefs' defense seems to have Rivers' number. He had only 10 passes intercepted last year, but 6 were picked off by the Chiefs. If Patrick Mahomes plays as good as Alex Smith they'll be fine, after all they won the Division with him. If he plays as good as the Chiefs think he is, then the Chiefs offense is going to be tough to stop because there's a lot of offensive talent surrounding Mahomes.

Rivers is 37 years old. You have to wonder if the drop off will come suddenly aka Peyton Manning.

Injuries. Lamp isn't 100% yet. CB Trevor Williams has an ankle injury and will miss  all of the preseason. Williams played great last season in place of Verrett. Rookie WR Dylan Cantrell is out with a bone bruise and will also miss the preseason. While the WR position is deep, Keenan Allen has played in all 16 games just once (last season). C Pouncey has been injury prone, missing games in 4 of the last 5 seasons. The two Melvin's (Ingram and Gordon) have been durable lately, but both were injury prone early in their careers. While not an injury, DT Corey Liuget is suspended for the first 4 games of the season. Chargers got a big scare when Bosa limped off the field during practice, but it wasn't anything serious.

Bottom line; Beat the Chiefs, overcome the lack of home field advantage, and avoid serious injuries to key players and the Chargers will be in the playoffs. Do that and the talent is there to make a run at a Championship.


Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Spurs - Act III

The Spurs are like a sports team you make up for a movie script. They hire this tough, no nonsense coach that has a kind heart and philosophical mind. They draft this shy kid with great talent that leads them to a championship then puts ego aside for the good of the team. They bring in a pair of foreigners, who at first seem to be incompatible, but end up bonding with the coach and the team goes on to win another championship...or another four. It comes full circle when the two put aside their egos to let the new kid carry the team.

Of course I'm talking about Pop, Duncan, Manu, and Parker. The movie should have ended with Kawhi Leonard winning the MVP and the Spurs hoisting their 5th Championship Banner, but in reality it was only the end of the first act.

In the three-act structure, the 2nd act is where the protagonist(s) attempt to resolve an issue caused by a turning point at the end of the first act, only to find things getting worse and seemingly unable to resolve the problem.

The old star has retired. The young gun who was crowned the savior has abandoned them. The two foreigners, who were thought inseparable, have now parted ways.

Parker wrote a thank you note that was posted here. Parker was/is my favorite Spur, yes even more so than Duncan. I realize that Duncan made the Spurs who they are and is one of the greatest, but I loved Parker's game and it was beautiful to watch him run the offense in his prime.


In order to solve the problem, the protagonist(s) must learn new skills and arrive at a higher sense of awareness of who they are and what they are capable of. They must do this in order to deal with their predicament, which in turn changes who they are.

Queue the 3rd Act.

Manu has nothing more to prove. The team will rebuild around new comer DeMar DeRozen, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay. Dejounte Murray will be running the offense. Las Vegas and ESPN are predicting the Spurs will miss the playoffs. It will be different, but I believe Pop helps this team figure out who they are and what they are capable of. The Spurs won 47 games last season with Leonard playing just 9 games. They will also be missing Danny Greene as part of the Leonard-DeRozen trade, but they won't have the distraction Leonard caused the entire season. Murray should get better. DeRozen should be motivated. This team is still plenty good enough to make the playoffs.

Can this team seriously challenge the Warriors for a spot in the Finals? That would take a movie like ending.

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

3 Years, 9 months

November 7, 2014. That's the last time I wrote a post on this blog. I won't explain why the hiatus, but it had a lot to do with things going on in my personal life that I won't go into here.

So why am I back now? To be honest I'm not sure...just wanted to start writing again I guess. A lot has changed in almost 4 years...the Chargers are in LA and Kawhi Leonard is a Raptor (I'll post my thoughts on those soon)...but some things haven't. I still have the 2013 Focus ST, but it's had a few upgrades since then. None of my favorite Sports teams have won the Championship since the Spurs in 2013. Angels are still wasting the services of Mike Trout by not making the playoffs in the last 4 seasons.

Another reason I wanted to post again is that there's a lot of hype surrounding the LA Chargers this season and I want to chronicle my thoughts if they happen to live up to the hype. Can they actually be a contender this year? I'll post my thoughts on why I'm hopeful, but very tentative.

Stay tuned...