NBA Finals; Spurs vs. Heat

I'm writing this as I wait in anticipation of Game 1 of the NBA Finals...it's been 9 long days.  I'm sure the Spurs players feel the same way.

One of my co-workers is picking the Spurs to win.  There's many sportscasters out there doing the same, although the majority are going Miami in 7...just like Bulldog over at Nothing If Not Random.  As a Spurs fan I'm hoping they're right...if it goes 7 the Spurs will at least have a decent chance at the upset.  Problem is, I don't think the Spurs can take the Heat to 7 games.

What!!??  How can I claim to be a big Spurs fan and then type out what I just did.

I'm making a big attempt at looking at this Finals matchup with my eyes and head and not my heart.  I believe a lot of people are looking at the way the Playoffs panned out and making their judgements from there...I think that's a mistake.  The Heat ran into a team that could take the most advantage of their two biggest weaknesses...namely, lack of a good low post defender and vulnerable to teams that crash the offensive boards.  Roy Hibbert played way above his season averages and just dominated the Heat in the post.  That forced the Heat to move away from their most effective rotations.  In minutes played per season for the Heat it goes, Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Mario Chalmers, Ray Allen, and Shane Battier.  Looking at those names, the Heat play a lot with a 3-guard lineup of Chalmers, Wade, Allen or go with Battier at the small forward.  That leaves Bosh at Center and James as the Power Forward.  With Hibbert and David West abusing Chris Boss physically, the Heat were forced to go away from Allen and Battier and give more minutes to Chris Anderson and Udonis Haslem.  Those guys stepped up enough (especially Anderson) to get the Heat past the Pacers in 7.

 The Spurs are an excellent rebounding team on the defensive end (4th), but they are not a good offensive rebounding club (29th) and 21st overall in rebounding.  Anyone who's seen the Spurs over the last several seasons know that the offense doesn't go through Tim Duncan in the low post anymore.  Can the combination of Duncan and Tiago Splitter cause enough mismatches to make the Heat go away from their small lineup?  I don't think so.  If Kawahi Leonard is assigned to James (and I'm pretty sure he will be).  That means Duncan or Splitter will be on Shane Battier or Ray Allen out at the 3-point line.  If you watch the Spurs at anytime since Popovich took over as coach the one thing that really stands out is how much the Spurs overplay the guy with the ball towards the middle of the court.  Their whole defensive philosophy is to force the ball handler baseline where one of the Bigs will meet him...the two defenders then try to pin him on the baseline.  If Duncan or Splitter is out at the 3-point line, then the Spurs can't play their normal defense.

What about on the other end you ask?  James won't guard Leonard, most likely he'll pick up Splitter since he's not much of a threat on the offensive end and has a more finesse game in the post than a power one. Splitter's is taller (6'11", 232), but James actually weighs more (6'8" 240).  Allen or Battier then would pick up Leonard.  I feel that Leonard could post either of those guys up, but Pop doesn't call plays for Leonard that often.  You would think that Duncan could eat up Bosh in the low post, but as I mentioned earlier, the Spurs don't play Duncan down in the post very often anymore.  Also, recent history hasn't shown Duncan outplaying Bosh...the exact opposite in fact.  I just have to hope that Bosh is still having a hangover from the Pacer series.

If any team has to go away from their normal rotations, it will be the Spurs not the Heat. It will be an interesting thing to track how many minutes Splitter, who was 6th in minutes played for the Spurs in the playoffs vs. Batter and Allen, who where 5th and 6th in minutes played for the Heat, and see how that effects the games itself.  I'm thinking Splitter is going to get less time in this series and you'll see the minutes go up for Boris Diaw and DeJuan Blair.  Blair may turn out to be the Spurs best defender against James.

I have two hopes for the Spurs.  One, Pop has a new wrinkle up his sleeve.  In the last Spurs Championship year the Spurs faced James and the Cavaliers.  Obviously, James has improved since then, but the Spurs let James get his and shut down everyone else.  Yes, I understand that the Heat are much better overall team, but I still think that may be the best course of action. 

The other thing is that beautiful motion offense the Spurs now play.  Watch for when Parker gives the ball up early in a possession.  Watch Parker and the other four players, not the guy with the ball.  Don't worry about missing something...if Parker gives the ball up early in the shot clock he's going to get the ball back.  Try to pick up where the player setting the screen for Parker comes from when Parker gets the ball back. Look at where Parker is on the floor.  Yes, it's a pick-n-roll offense, but it's getting setup on the wing instead of the top of the key.  The screener is coming from somewhere on the weak side.  A lot of times, someone will set a screen on the guy setting the screen for Parker.  Parker himself may come off two or three screens before he gets the ball back...that's a lot of screens.  That puts the defenders, both the one guarding the screener and the one guarding Parker, in chase mode.  The play then runs according to how the defense reacts...when Parker is making good decisions and hitting the jumper is pretty to watch.  Here's a video a guy named Mike Prada put up on SB Nation about the play I'm talking about.
Motion Weak Side Pick-n-Roll

When that offense is clicking and the Spurs are hitting open shots they can beat anyone.  The thing is, I think the Heat's athleticism can disrupt the offense by getting hands in passing lanes and recovering from chase mode to stay on Parker and the screener and still run the shooters off the 3-point line. If that happens with any kind of frequency, the Spurs won't be seeing a game 6 let alone a game 7.  

I'll be watching the game tonight, hoping Parker runs the offense with perfection and stays hot, the wings are hitting threes, Duncan's low post game reappears, and Pop reveals a wrinkle we haven't seen yet.  All that and James doesn't take over the game, Bosh doesn't regain his confidence, and Wade and Allen stay in hibernation. 

Is that too much to hope for?  Yea, that's why I don't think the Spurs will win the series...but maybe, possibly, hopefully, it can happen for 4 games out of the next 7.