Video Game Music....LIVE!

I'm old...let's just say the odds are that I'm older than you and leave it at that.  Thing is I was raised in the video game generation and played a lot of them in my young adult life and still occasionally do.  I also love music, so when I first got invited to go to a"Video Game Live" concert I hastily said yes.  As the date got closer I had a chance to think about it and I wondered if it was going to be full of "kids" and I would be totally out of place.  I almost backed out, but was talked into going...I still was a little hesitant since the group I was going with was all much younger than me.

I shouldn't have worried.  I was pleasantly surprised at the diversity of the crowd.  Yea, there was the "kids," but there was also couples of every age group, even a few I would peg as senior citizens.  Anyway, this link is to a youtube video of a Video Games Live concert.  The Classic Arcade Medley was the same piece they opened the show with that I went to see tonight.  Great stuff and brought back quite a few memories...stuff my son and I played when he was little.  While the youtube vid had several performances I saw tonight, I saw several others that aren't in the video.  At one point in the concert, the host mentioned they had about 120 pieces, but play only about 19-20 during a given performance.

I highly recommend going to see it even if you don't play video games...the performances are amazing and the music incredible.  Also a great way to introduce your kids to the symphony. 

You may have seen videos by a girl with the handle of "Flute Link" on youtube.  Her real name is Laura Intravia and she performed during the show I saw.  She's an amazingly talented girl.  She sang a Russian opera that was composed for Tetris (insane high notes), rocked out on the flute to a Chrono Trigger and Chrono Cross montage, and also played an "electric" flute to Donkey Kong Country, which she said was her favorite video game.  Most of the videos of her I've seen on youtube she is dressed like Link from Zelda, but at the concert tonight she wasn't (you can see her in the Chrono Cross number in the link to the youtube vid).   

The orchestra and choir were actually local talent, but the Conductor was James Horner, who, along with video games, has been involved in several movies, most recently the new "Amazing Spiderman."  As in every Video Game Live performance, it was hosted by Tommy Tallarico, who along with making a living as a video game music composer is a talented guitar player in his own right.  He played electric guitar along with the orchestra on several pieces and displays a lot of energy and passion, which is a big plus in a live performance.  The Street Fighter montage he did was excellent.  One of the highlights of the night was Tallarico playing a guitar duet with the winner of the Guitar Hero contest they had before the concert...Tallarico playing his electric guitar while the contest winner played the video game. 

The surprise of the night was when they brought on stage a guy that is semi-famous on youtube.  Seems he kept showing up at their concerts and telling them that his dream was to play with them.  Well I got to see Viking Jesus play live with the orchestra when they played the music from Star Fox 64.  They also brought him back for a duet with Tallarico performing the music from Final Fantasy VII.  VJ is the second youtube star I've seen in person...the first was Toronto Batman when I visited Canada last year.  We where just walking around downtown Toronto and there he was standing on the sidewalk.

So if you get a chance to see a Video Game Live performance, do it...you won't regret it.
www.videogameslive.com

Heat Repeat As Champs, Take Spurs 95-88 In Game 7

I took a day to write this...that is the luxury of doing this for a hobby as opposed to sportswriters who do it for a living.  If you read my pre-Finals post I thought the Heat would win the series, in fact I didn't give the Spurs much of a chance...but the way this series went down the Spurs could have easily won it, and that hurts me as a fan, can't image how the players feel.

I thought it would take some extra ordinary things to happen for the Spurs to win it all and they got it.  Game 1, NBA Finals tying record for least turnovers with just four.  Game 3, NBA record 16 three pointers.  Game 5, a 60% shooting night.

Meanwhile, for the Heat, LeBron James was tentative to take jumpers.  Dwayne Wade was slowed by injuries.  Chris Bosh wasn't doing much. 

Then Game 6 back in Miami.  The Spurs got the one more performance it would take to upset the heat when Tim Duncan went for 30 points and 12 rebounds (5 offensive).  They just couldn't close the deal.  Suddenly, Bosh was making defensive plays and James finally found his jumper.  The Heat also got some help from Mario Chambers with 20 points (4-5 three pointers).  It all went perfect for the Heat.  Popovich even making coaching mistakes in the waning moments of regulation.  Funny that this was the best free throw shooting team of the Pop-Duncan era and that was one of the things that let them down in the end. 

I don't know what the sports media is saying about Game 7...I've avoided sports related shows/websites since Thursday night...but if they are saying the Spurs were broken by the Game 6 loss, I would say they're wrong.  In Game 7, the Heat found themselves again.  James was hitting the jumpers the Spurs were daring for him to shoot all series long (32 PTS, 12-23, 12 REB, 4 AST).  Wade played a "Wade-like" game (23 PTS, 11-21, 10 REB), the best all-around game he's played in the series.  Shane Battier decided to re-live last years Finals and hit 6-8 threes.  I have to wonder if Battier is the only player in NBA history to only attempt 3-point shots over the course of entire series.  The Heats defense took Tony Parker out of his game and the pick-n-roll motion offense the Spurs run, was done.  The Spurs even stopped trying to run it in the 4th quarter.  A co-worker mentioned that he saw something that said Parker was still feeling the effects of the pulled hamstring, but I haven't seen anything written about that. 

Despite all that the Spurs had a chance in Game 7.  I have to give the Spurs credit for their heart.  With their normal offense rendered useless, not getting much from Parker, Danny Green suddenly coming back down to earth, and James/Wade doing their thing (add Game 6 if you like), the Spurs could have just packed it in.  For the 2nd straight game the Heat out shot the Spurs from the 3-point line (12-32 vs 6-19).  No one shot well (.378 as a team), but they somehow found ways to stay in it.  Duncan (who many sportscasters thought would be spent) found the will to get 24 points and 12 rebounds.  Although at times I thought Manu Ginobili tried to do to much, he came back with an 18 PT (6-12), 5 assist game.  Kawhi Leonard (who many sportscasters said was too inexperienced to overcome Game 6) posted a 19 PT, 16 REB performance.

In the end, the Heat was the better team and the Spurs couldn't make the plays down the stretch.  With 1:26 left and the score 90-88 Heat, Leonard had a pretty good look at making a three that would have given the Spurs the lead (he had just hit a 3-PTer in the previous possession), but couldn't put it down.  With 49 seconds left and the same score, Duncan had a gimme at the rim and couldn't put it in the hole...on top of that he had  a good shot at tipping in the rebound, but that didn't fall either. I felt his frustration when he slapped the floor on the following defensive possession.  I know he still has to be thinking "how did I miss those two shots?"

After that, fittingly, James sunk a 20 foot jumper to seal the Heats 2nd straight Championship. 

Yea, I thought the Heat was the better team going in and that they would win the Finals...but one rebound, one free throw, or one shot and the Spurs could have pulled off the upset.  Bill Simmons summed it up after the Game 6 loss, "I don't know if there ever was a team that close to winning a Championship and didn't." 

NBA Finals; Heat 103, Spurs 100 in Overtime; SeriesTied 3-3

One more free throw or one more rebound.  That's all it would have taken for the Spurs to win the NBA Championship. 

Before I go into that, it was a great game.  You had the 37 year old Tim Duncan reaching back into his youth for a 30 PT, 17 REB vintage performance.  He leads the Spurs to 75-65 lead after 3 quarters.

Then LeBron James played like Heat fans were waiting for him to play.  Up until that point, Mario Chalmers led the team with 17 PTS.  Chalmers made one more bucket (a 3 for the first basket of the 4th) which came off an assist from James, who put up his 2nd triple-double of the Finals with 32 PTS, 10 REB, 11 AST.  He also had one BIG block on Duncan at the rim during the comeback.  I have to believe Duncan was tired at that point because he was dunking those in the first half. 

It looked like it was going to be one of the those quarters by the Spurs were they just don't play well offensively and score only single digits.  By 6:03 the Heat had already erased the 10 point lead and led 84-82.  With 1:47 to go, the Heat had an 89-86 lead, the Spurs managing to get some stops and stay within reach. 

Then it was Tony Parker's turn (he had a miserable shooting game up to that point and ended the game hitting on just 6-23).  First, Parker shot a step back three over James to tie the score at 89-89.  Then he steals a pass by James intended for Chalmers.  On the other end he spins on Chalmers in the lane and hits a floater to give the Spurs a 91-89 lead.

Two Ginobili free throws sandwiched around two turnovers by James gave the Spurs a 93-89 lead with 28.2 secounds left. At that point I was thinking that James, despite his effort to bring the Heat back, was going to get criticized to no end for those turnovers.

Then Murphy stepped in and Faith took over.

Spurs beat Heat 114-104, take 3-2 Series lead

Manu Ginobili wasn't playing well in the playoffs. I was ready to give up on him and the media was asking questions. So what does Gregg Popovich do? He starts him and gives him more playing time. It was a great strategic move and puts another example to put up there on why Pop is a great coach. With the Heat trapping Tony Parker and helping on Tim Duncan when he gets the ball in the post, putting Ginobili on the floor opening things up for the Spurs offense. It countered the small ball Miami was going to with Mike Miller starting and Ray Allen seeing more playing time. It was a great tactical move by Pop. With the Heat switching on every pick, Ginonili and Parker attacked whoever Miller was guarding (and later Norris Cole when he entered the game) making Miller switch onto them. The Spurs would then run clear outs and let Parker or Ginobili go to work. 

It helped that Ginobili got going. He was still struggling from 3-PT range (1-4), but had an overall great game (24 PTS, 8-14, 10 AST). He played 33:00, which was 4th in minutes played in Game 5 for the Spurs and the most minutes Ginobili has played in a game all season. 

The Heat got good production from there Big Three+...LeBron James 25 PTS, 6 REB, 8 AST); Dwayne Wade 25 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST; Chris Bosh 16 PTS, 6 REB; Allen 21 PTS, 4-4 3PT.  They forced 18 turnovers from the Spurs which got the Heat 16 more shots (86-70). For the first time in the series the Heat out-shot the Spurs from 3-PT range (11-23 vs. 9-22). They scored 104 points....and the Spurs still won. 

Looking closer at the box score, both Allen (7-10) and Bosh (7-11) shot well, but James struggled (8-22) and Wade shot under his playoff average (.455 vs .476). The thing was that both players were getting inside; it wasn't a matter of them settling for outside shots and not making them. Wade didn't shoot a 3-pointer in the game and James was 2-4, but the Heat shot .430 overall.  The Spurs have thrown different bodies at James.  In Game 5 it was Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Borris Diaw taking turns trying to keep him in check.

Meanwhile the Spurs were busy carving up the Heat's defense. They jumped out to a 32-19 lead, shooting .611 for the quarter. My thought process at the time was no way they could keep that up for the game. By halftime the Spurs actually increased their shooting to .618, but the Heat had cut the lead to 61-52. I remember thinking that the Spurs were playing at a 122 point pace...that's a lot of points!  Can they possible put up that kind of numbers against this Heat defense?

Spurs did slow down, but not by much. They ended up shooting .600 for the game and scored 114 PTS. I never would have thought the Spurs could beat the Heat giving up 18 turnovers and losing the offensive rebounding battle (5-12). Three of the four starters (Duncan .700, Parker .714, Leonard .750) shot over 70%. Ginobili shot .571 and Green rounded out the starting five with .533 shooting. I know that sportscasters are criticizing James game today, but some blame for the loss has to go to the Heat's defense. The Spurs made some tough shots, but a lot of baskets were made right at the rim or on open jumpers.  

Everyone knows by now that Green set a NBA Finals series record with 25 three pointers...and we still have at least one more game to go. Allen, ironically had the record of 22, which he set in 6 games. Green has been making threes even when the Heat are trying to run him off the line, so it amazes me how many times they are letting him have open looks. I keep waiting for him to have an off shooting night....maybe the Heat are too...but it hasn't happened yet. The question is whether Miami is going to keep the strategy of trapping Parker and switching everything or will they come up with a new wrinkle for Game 6?

For Heat fans, the question is can do put it together for two consecutive games, something they haven't done in this, or the previous series against the Pacers.  They obviously have the physical talent, but can they put forth the effort.  Can Spoelstra find a counter that can neutralize Ginobili's insertion into the starting lineup?  Can James revert back to "Cleveland mode" and take over a game when the Heat need him too?  Will Wade, Bosh, and Allen continue to play well?  Will one of the bench players step up? 

Lots of questions for the Heat right now...but there will be more questions about their heart (especially towards James) if they lose this series.

For the Spurs, there's only one overall question...can they figure out how to get one more win? 

Series Tied 2-2, Heat beat Spurs, 109-93

For me Game 4 was like the Amityville Horror..."They're Back!" LeBron James, 33 PTS, 15-25, 11 REB, 4 AST, 2 BLK, 2 STL...Dwayne Wade 32 PTS, 14-25, 6 REB, 4 AST, 6 STL, 1 BLK...Chris Bosh 20 PTS, 8-14, 13 REB, 1 AST, 2 STL, 2 BLK. With the Heat's Big Three all contributing (and 14 from Ray Allen off the Bench), they had the game their fans have been waiting for. Give Spoelstra credit for changing everything up for Game 4, from pushing the ball up the floor, to full court presses when Parker wasn't in the game, to even changing uniforms from their red road to the black road uniforms. Would have been perfectly happy seeing any of the trio stay in the slump they were in, but to have all three breakout at the same time didn't work out well for the Spurs. 

Still there's some encouragement that the Spurs can pull this out. Despite the breakout game of the Big 3 and a lot of turnovers, the Spurs played the Heat to a 49-49 tie at the half. Tony Parker was playing his game up to that point (15 PTS, 7-14, 8 AST at halftime), but only ended up taking 2 shots in the 3rd quarter. Don't know if the Hamstring was bothering him or not...I haven't seen anything reported about it. Parker, who leads the Spurs in minutes played per game, was 4th in minutes played in Game 4. Manu Ginobili is still in a funk (1-5, his only basket coming in the 4th quarter when the outcome was decided). It may be sacrilegious to Manu fans, but I think it may be time to cut his minutes and give them to someone else. It's getting to the point where the Spurs can't wait for him to find his game. 

Much talk has been made about the Heat's small lineup, but the Spurs have been much more effective on offense in this series going small with Gary Neal. We also saw a reappearance of Boris Diaw, who didn't perform well in Games 1-2 and had no playing time in Game 3. Diaw was effective in the first half and ended up with 9 PTS, 3-6, 3 REB while playing in just 11:18. 

For me, the most disappointing thing about Game 4 was that the Spurs lost the offensive rebounding battle 5-7. As I said in the last post, OREB is the one glaring weakness the Heat have. This should be the one area the Spurs should dominate every game. It comes down to effort and the Heat just went after the boards harder. The Spurs also had 18 turnovers and shot just .443 as a team. Every made shot is one less opportunity for the Heat to get out in transition and every turnover is one more opportunity for the Heat to get out in transition. 

Heat had everything going in this one, also beating out the Spurs in steals (13-5) and blocks (7-4). Yea the Big 3 for Miami are back, but if the Spurs can keep the turnovers down, crash the boards, and keep the steals/blocks even they'll have a chance to win the Championship. That's not anything that's outside the Spurs normal character as a basketball team. The Spurs won with extraordinary circumstances in Game 1 (tying the record low for turnovers) and Game 3 (record 3-PT shooting), but last night's game, even though it was a loss, showed me that they can stay with the Heat without an abnormally good game...just play fundamentally sound, which is the Spurs trade mark.

In this Tennis match of a series, the ball is back in the Spurs court...it's their turn to need a win. Lose and they need 2 straight in Miami...possible, but not probable. Win and the Spurs are up 3-2 with a good shot at upsetting the defending Champs. Due to TV ruling the scheduling, we have to wait until Sunday to find out who gains the edge....I'm obviously hoping the Spurs can hold serve and put the ball back in the Heats court for Game 6.

NBA Finals, Game 3, Spurs 113, Heat 77...Spurs Lead Series 2-1

That was an unbelievable shooting night for Danny Green and Gary Neal. Spurs set a NBA Final record by making 16 threes, 13 of those by Green and Neal. Green had that Michael Jordan look at one point, you know the shoulder shrug and grin that said, "I don't know, it's just going in." The duo were responsible for 54 of the Spurs 113 points and didn't play the last 5:43 of the game. 

 I was a post early talking about the Spurs shooters getting hot and Neal doing a Vinnie Johnson imitation (for those of you too young, Vinnie's nickname was "the Microwave," because he was instant offense off the bench). If I would have wrote that before Game 3 instead of before Game 2 I could have bragged about it.  Green and Neal ended up a combined 13-19 in threes and the Spurs shot .500 from 3-PT range overall.

People need to keep a blow out like this in perspective (see how many sportscasters changed their opinions from after Game 2). The team winning isn't as good as they looked, and the team losing isn't as bad. Bottom line the Spurs got super-nova hot shooting from the perimeter players, which won't happen every night. Still there are a few things that you can look at in this game that's encouraging if you're a Spurs fan. 

Manu Ginobili and Matt Bonner shot 0-6 from behind the arch. Still waiting for Manu to have a great offensive game, but I'm beginning to believe it's not going to happen. I'm going to have to be satisfied with Ginobili giving the Spurs offense in small spurts. Still, the fact that the Spurs made 16 threes and none of them came from Manu or the Red Rocket means those two are still due.

Spurs killed the Heat on the offensive boards, pulling down 19 (7 by Tim Duncan and 4 by Tiago Splitter). Rebounding is the Heats biggest weakness, but the Spurs aren't a potent offensive rebounding team (29th in OREB for the season). Hopefully they can keep the level of effort up on the offensive glass because it is the one thing that can be exploited from the Heat every game. 

Tony Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili didn't play that well on offense. Duncan shot 5-11 for 12 PTS. Ginobili did have 6 AST, but shot just 3-7. Parker had 8 AST, but only played 27:28 and left the game with 5:07 left in the 3rd (he did go back in the game in the 4th, but played less than a minute). He didn't shoot well either, hitting on just 2-5 for 6 PTS. 

Which brings me to the part that scares me the most...Tony Parker's hamstring. When Parker left the game in the 3rd he went back to the locker room. Reports say it was he pulled a hammy and that he is having an MRI today. Losing Parker would be BIG!!! I know the Spurs were only up 66-52 when Parker left the game and they pulled away from there, but if Parker can't go it seriously hurts the Spurs chances of winning another game let alone the series. 

OK, let's talk LeBron James. 

Heat Tie Series 1-1 with 103-84 Win Over Spurs

Game 2 was what I was afraid this series would be like. Although the halftime score was similar to Game 1, the way the teams got there was different. The Heat disrupted the Spurs offense all game long and the Spurs found themselves struggling get good shots off. I figured the Spurs couldn't repeat the 4 turnover Game 1 performance and they didn't...16 turnovers in Game 2. 

Leonard also struggled to find his shot for the 2nd straight game....not good when your top 3 scorers can't find the basket (Parker 4-15, Tim Duncan 3-12, Kawhi Leonard 4-12). Unlike Game 1, in Game 2 I felt the Spurs were in trouble even though they were be down just five, 45-50. Danny Green's shooting was the only thing keeping them in the game (he was a perfect 6-6, 5-5 threes, an NBA Finals record for most threes without a miss). Once the Heat started the track meet in the middle of the 3rd quarter the game was over.  Manu Ginobili was also a non-factor, scoring 5 PTS on 2-6 shooting.

For the 2nd straight game the Spurs shot way under their season average (.417 and .410 vs .481). You expect the shooting averages to drop in the Playoffs as you face better teams, but that's too much of a shooting drop. I didn't think the Spurs could win a game shooting that poorly, but they got one in Miami....Game 2 was what I figured would happen if the Spurs shot this poorly. Each made shot is one less potential fast break opportunity for the Heat. The Heat's defense was stifling. They trapped everything, got the ball out of Parker's hands, and cut off the passing lanes. Priority one for Popovich in Game 3 is finding a way to free up Parker. Parker is the "QB" in the motion offense the Spurs run...if he can't make plays, the offense breaks down. That's when a team needs someone to beat his man one-on-one, and the Spurs don't have that guy anymore. 

Spurs tried to change things up and went to Tim Duncan down in the post, but he couldn't deliver. Off night for Duncan or better defense by the Heat? I don't know, but it didn't look like the Heat was helping out so Duncan was one-on-one. Duncan said in the post game interview that he played terribly...that he had shots he liked, just didn't put them down.  He needs to find his old self if Parker can't get freed up. 

The Heat shot .494 for the game, that's what getting out on the break does for them. Ray Allen and Mike Miller were also a combined 6-8 from 3-PT range. Those two guys are the main 3-PT threats, they have to run those guys off the 3-PT line.  Too many open looks from the arch and a lot of those came courtesy of the 7 assists from LeBron James. James shot just .417 for the game, which is a bad thing for the Spurs because he won't shoot that badly every night. James made his mark with two blocks at the rim, one on Duncan and the other a highlight block on Tiago Splitter, who had a running start and a big wind up and James still stopped the ball like it hit a wall.  Mario Chambers led the Heat with 19 PTS. Bosh went 6-10 for 12 PTS and stayed inside the 3-PT line. The Spurs best chance at winning is to shut down the role players and they didn't shut down anyone in this game.

Bottom line, the Spurs were blown out in the 2nd half, but they should still be OK with a split in Miami if they take 2 out of the 3 in San Antonio. Not likely that they can take the last two from the Heat in Miami, so getting two wins at home is critical.  It's really simple to say...they need to shoot better and cut down on the turnovers...not so simple when trying to do it against the Heat's defense

Spurs Take Game 1, 92-88 over the Heat

Let's start at the end. Sweet Curley Neal imitation by Tony Parker to hit the game clincher (for those too young, Curley Neal was a Globe Trotter that was famous for dribbling while sliding around on his knees). After the shot went in my reaction was, "Holy S.., he made it!" 

Talking to co-workers this morning, I told them Game 1 felt strange..it didn't feel like a playoff game. One agreed with me, his theory is that it was because the Spurs were rusty and the Heat was still recovering from the Pacers physical 7 game series. That's as good an explanation is any.

First play of the game the Heat disrupted a pass and got a steal that led to a Dwayne Wade dunk in transition. I thought, oh no, that's what I was afraid would happen. Then the Spurs settled in, ran their offense, and for the most part the Heat didn't disrupt the flow much. Spurs missed a lot of open looks. I thought it was a very good sign that they were down just 49-52 at the half shooting just 42%. Meanwhile, for the opening half, the Heat shot 50% overall, and it seemed like they made every open look. 

In the 3rd quarter everything just slowed down. The two teams played to a 20-20 tie and went into the final quarter with the Heat still leading by three, 72-69. Then the Heat just uncharacteristically fell apart. Five turnovers and just two points from Wade and Chris Bosh ended their chances of winning. 

What can you take away from this game? On the plus side for the Spurs, they won a game where they shot badly (.417)...something I didn't think could happen. Tim Duncan and Parker played a good game, but it wasn't like they played unusually good. Parker (.500 shooting, 21 PTS, 6 AST) was close to his season averages (.522, 20.3, 7.6) and Duncan didn't shoot well (.421, 20 PTS, 14 REB vs .502, 17.8, 9.9). Manu Ginobili hit some big threes, but missed some shots right at the rim. Danny Green was hot, but Kawhi Leonard had a terrible shooting game (.333). Is it because he's guarding LeBron James? That's one I'll have to keep track of.

Spurs set a record for fewest turnovers in a Finals game (4), which isn't likely to happen again. Statistically, LeBron James filled up the stat sheet with an 18-18-10 triple double (PTS-REB-AST), but didn't take over the game at any time. Wade and Allen started hot, but faded in the 2nd half. Spoelstra needs to tell Chris Bosh that if he even goes beyond the 3-point line on an offensive possession he's yanking him out of the game. Take away Bosh's 0-4 three point shooting and he played a decent game (6-12, 13 PTS, 5 REB), although, if I'm a Heat fan, I would like to see more rebounds from him. It's hard to be a factor on the boards when you're that far away from the basket, so as a Spurs fan, I'm perfectly happy with him hanging out on the 3-point line. 

I need to stop doing pre-series posts, because none of the things that I thought would be factors revealed itself in Game 1. Although Ray Allen played a lot of minutes and made big contributions, Shane Battier played sparingly (6:11). Battier's minutes went to Mike Miller, a pattern that started in the Pacers series that I didn't think would continue in the Finals. Tiago Splitter played his normal rotations and DeJuan Blair didn't play at all. Popovich tried Borris Diaw on LeBron James for a stretch and it didn't work out too well. I still think Blair would be the 2nd best option to guard James, but Pop is an NBA coach and I'm obviously not.

Not that it's worth much after my pre-series assessment, but here's my thoughts for Game 2.

NBA Finals; Spurs vs. Heat

I'm writing this as I wait in anticipation of Game 1 of the NBA Finals...it's been 9 long days.  I'm sure the Spurs players feel the same way.

One of my co-workers is picking the Spurs to win.  There's many sportscasters out there doing the same, although the majority are going Miami in 7...just like Bulldog over at Nothing If Not Random.  As a Spurs fan I'm hoping they're right...if it goes 7 the Spurs will at least have a decent chance at the upset.  Problem is, I don't think the Spurs can take the Heat to 7 games.

What!!??  How can I claim to be a big Spurs fan and then type out what I just did.

I'm making a big attempt at looking at this Finals matchup with my eyes and head and not my heart.  I believe a lot of people are looking at the way the Playoffs panned out and making their judgements from there...I think that's a mistake.  The Heat ran into a team that could take the most advantage of their two biggest weaknesses...namely, lack of a good low post defender and vulnerable to teams that crash the offensive boards.  Roy Hibbert played way above his season averages and just dominated the Heat in the post.  That forced the Heat to move away from their most effective rotations.  In minutes played per season for the Heat it goes, Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Mario Chalmers, Ray Allen, and Shane Battier.  Looking at those names, the Heat play a lot with a 3-guard lineup of Chalmers, Wade, Allen or go with Battier at the small forward.  That leaves Bosh at Center and James as the Power Forward.  With Hibbert and David West abusing Chris Boss physically, the Heat were forced to go away from Allen and Battier and give more minutes to Chris Anderson and Udonis Haslem.  Those guys stepped up enough (especially Anderson) to get the Heat past the Pacers in 7.

 The Spurs are an excellent rebounding team on the defensive end (4th), but they are not a good offensive rebounding club (29th) and 21st overall in rebounding.  Anyone who's seen the Spurs over the last several seasons know that the offense doesn't go through Tim Duncan in the low post anymore.  Can the combination of Duncan and Tiago Splitter cause enough mismatches to make the Heat go away from their small lineup?  I don't think so.  If Kawahi Leonard is assigned to James (and I'm pretty sure he will be).  That means Duncan or Splitter will be on Shane Battier or Ray Allen out at the 3-point line.  If you watch the Spurs at anytime since Popovich took over as coach the one thing that really stands out is how much the Spurs overplay the guy with the ball towards the middle of the court.  Their whole defensive philosophy is to force the ball handler baseline where one of the Bigs will meet him...the two defenders then try to pin him on the baseline.  If Duncan or Splitter is out at the 3-point line, then the Spurs can't play their normal defense.

What about on the other end you ask?  James won't guard Leonard, most likely he'll pick up Splitter since he's not much of a threat on the offensive end and has a more finesse game in the post than a power one. Splitter's is taller (6'11", 232), but James actually weighs more (6'8" 240).  Allen or Battier then would pick up Leonard.  I feel that Leonard could post either of those guys up, but Pop doesn't call plays for Leonard that often.  You would think that Duncan could eat up Bosh in the low post, but as I mentioned earlier, the Spurs don't play Duncan down in the post very often anymore.  Also, recent history hasn't shown Duncan outplaying Bosh...the exact opposite in fact.  I just have to hope that Bosh is still having a hangover from the Pacer series.

If any team has to go away from their normal rotations, it will be the Spurs not the Heat. It will be an interesting thing to track how many minutes Splitter, who was 6th in minutes played for the Spurs in the playoffs vs. Batter and Allen, who where 5th and 6th in minutes played for the Heat, and see how that effects the games itself.  I'm thinking Splitter is going to get less time in this series and you'll see the minutes go up for Boris Diaw and DeJuan Blair.  Blair may turn out to be the Spurs best defender against James.

I have two hopes for the Spurs.  One, Pop has a new wrinkle up his sleeve.  In the last Spurs Championship year the Spurs faced James and the Cavaliers.  Obviously, James has improved since then, but the Spurs let James get his and shut down everyone else.  Yes, I understand that the Heat are much better overall team, but I still think that may be the best course of action. 

The other thing is that beautiful motion offense the Spurs now play.  Watch for when Parker gives the ball up early in a possession.  Watch Parker and the other four players, not the guy with the ball.  Don't worry about missing something...if Parker gives the ball up early in the shot clock he's going to get the ball back.  Try to pick up where the player setting the screen for Parker comes from when Parker gets the ball back. Look at where Parker is on the floor.  Yes, it's a pick-n-roll offense, but it's getting setup on the wing instead of the top of the key.  The screener is coming from somewhere on the weak side.  A lot of times, someone will set a screen on the guy setting the screen for Parker.  Parker himself may come off two or three screens before he gets the ball back...that's a lot of screens.  That puts the defenders, both the one guarding the screener and the one guarding Parker, in chase mode.  The play then runs according to how the defense reacts...when Parker is making good decisions and hitting the jumper is pretty to watch.  Here's a video a guy named Mike Prada put up on SB Nation about the play I'm talking about.
Motion Weak Side Pick-n-Roll

When that offense is clicking and the Spurs are hitting open shots they can beat anyone.  The thing is, I think the Heat's athleticism can disrupt the offense by getting hands in passing lanes and recovering from chase mode to stay on Parker and the screener and still run the shooters off the 3-point line. If that happens with any kind of frequency, the Spurs won't be seeing a game 6 let alone a game 7.  

I'll be watching the game tonight, hoping Parker runs the offense with perfection and stays hot, the wings are hitting threes, Duncan's low post game reappears, and Pop reveals a wrinkle we haven't seen yet.  All that and James doesn't take over the game, Bosh doesn't regain his confidence, and Wade and Allen stay in hibernation. 

Is that too much to hope for?  Yea, that's why I don't think the Spurs will win the series...but maybe, possibly, hopefully, it can happen for 4 games out of the next 7.