NFL Week 8 Thoughts, All On Chargers

OK, one non-Charger thought. Did you know that Tom Brady is the only QB in the history of the NFL to pass for 350+ yds, 5 or more TDs, 0 interceptions, and better than 85% completions in the same game? Will, last week against the Bears he did it for the 2nd time (1st was in 09 vs. the Titans).

I mentioned in my Week 4 Thoughts post that people were over-blowing the Chargers 5-1 record. Now after 2 straight loses some sportscasters are jumping off the bandwagon, like in this Around the NFL article. Just watched the Broncos game on rewind last night and I'm not that discouraged (that might change if they lose to the Dolphins this week).

Chargers defense played the Broncos tough in the first quarter. They made the Broncos punt in their first two drives...how many times has that happened to Broncos this year? The halftime score was 14-7 Broncos, but mostly because the Chargers were robbed of a turnover (even the instant replay official calling the game said it should have been a fumble) and partially because CB Jason Verrett went out with a shoulder injury. Branden Flowers was already out, so both starting CBs out versus Peyton Manning...not likely that's going to work out well. Manning immediately started picking on replacement Richard Marshall. Marshall was so bad that the Chargers cut him after the game. You have to play pretty lousy to get cut when a team has both starters at your position injured.

Phillip Rivers threw 2 interceptions, but neither one was terrible. On the first, Keenan Allen slipped on the cut. The bad part was that it happened in the opening drive of the 3rd quarter. On the previous drive the Chargers went 13 plays, 84 yards to tie the score at 7-7.The 2nd interception was towards the end of the game down 2 TDs. Rivers was trying to go deep to Malcolm Floyd, but a Bronco safety was over the top. Considering the game situation I can see why Rivers' gambled, but it still wasn't a good decision.

With the Broncos up 28-14 Eric Weddle made a great interception that could have changed the game. The interception was overturned by a tricky-tack holding call on Marcus Gilchrist. I can see why they called it because Gilchrist put a hand on the receivers hip, but he never turned him or impeded his progress.

Lastly, with time left to turn the game around, Broncos up 35-21, Weddle punched the ball out of Emmnauel Saunders hands. Unfortunately, despite several Chargers defenders around the ball, Wes Welker ended up recovering it.

The point is all the breaks went the Broncos way. Are Broncos a better team? Absolutely, so when you lose the turnover battle 2-0 you should get blown out. The Chargers lost handily by 2 TDs, but it wasn't a blowout. Add to that they could have easily had 3 Bronco turnovers and I don't feel like the Chargers were over matched (especially considering 2 starting CBs, and OLB Melvin Ingram were out). It was really encouraging how well the defense played before Verrett went out. Broncos only TD while Verrett was in the game was set up by a great catch by Saunders...and it was well covered.

Unfortunately, Verrett may be out for awhile and Ingram isn't due back anytime soon. Flowers should play against the Dolphins and the Chargers signed ex-Washington CB Richard Crawford. Who knows how soon Crawford can play. The Chargers defense has been a lot better when Flowers and Verrett have been on the field, but Shareece Wright has been serviceable when either of the two has been out. Rookie Chris Davis has been getting playing time and getting better.

The schedule does get tougher late November into December, but if they can beat the Dolphins the Chargers will be on a bye so they should be able to get a few players back from injury for Week 11 including a very realistic return by Ryan Mathews. Branden Oliver made a splash running for 100+ against the Jets and Raiders, but hasn't been able to duplicate that success against the Chiefs or Broncos. Love Oliver and he does have talent, but I'm guessing his success had something to do with the opponent.

If the Chargers are at full strength going into the last five game gauntlet of @Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, @49ers, @ Chiefs, I'll still give this team a decent shot at the playoffs.

NFL Week 7 Thoughts

Thought the Chargers moved away from their identity last week versus the Chiefs. The majority of Rivers passes were down the field instead of the short passing game that has made this offense a success. Maybe it was the way the Chiefs played defense (I haven't watched the game on Rewind yet), but if that's the case it's an issue also. That would mean that the Chargers' future opponents are going to play them the same way and dare the Chargers to beat them deep. 

With Jason Varett out and Branden Flowers playing hurt, the Chargers' defense isn't the same. Still, the Chargers were able to win last year without those guys. More than any other game this season the offense needed to protect the defense, but it was the Chiefs who dominated the time of possession. Also, the last two drives into Chiefs territory resulted in FGs. Rivers wasn't sharp, missing Floyd on a couple end zone throws. A TD in either of those drives and the Chargers had a decent chance of escaping with a win. 

How in the world did the Seahawks get fooled on that punt? If you haven't seen it the Rams duped the Seahawks punt coverage team by pretending to receive the punt on one side of the field, while the punt was actually fielded on the other side. Wouldn't it be called in the huddle which side of the field their punter is kicking the ball so they can set the coverage? They tried to explain it in this article on Business Insider, but that even makes it worse for the Seahawks. According to the article, Seahawk punter Jon Ryan almost always punts to his left when he's trying to pin teams deep. 

The Broncos victory over the 49ers was the best game I've seen a team play in quite a while. As a Charger fan I'm hoping that's an anomaly and not who the Broncos really are. If that's who the Broncos really are, give them the Super Bowl trophy now, because if they play like that every week no one is going to beat them. Oh and congratulations to Peyton Manning for the career TD record. It's crazy to know that he could realistically push the record close to 600 before he retires.

Speaking of records, DeMarco Murray broke Jim Brown's record for consecutive 100 yard games to start a season, going for 100+ in his 7th straight game. A lot of football people consider Brown a running back god, so breaking one of his records is a really big deal. Those same people may diminish the accomplishment by saying it's easier to run now with spread offenses, but there's always two sides to a coin. With spread offenses, less and less backs have the opportunity to carry the ball enough times to get to 100. Many teams are protecting the health of their RBs by platooning, also leading to less opportunities. In today's NFL a back has to pass protect and catch passes or he isn't going to stay in the game, again leading to less RBs with an opportunity to go for 100 yards a game.  Finally, if it was so easy, why hasn't anyone done it before Murray?

Are Green Bay Packers fans relaxing now?

What happened to the Legend of Doom? Russell Wilson becomes the first QB to throw for 300+ and rush for 100+ in the same game...and the Seahawks lose.

The Saints are in trouble. Maybe the anomaly wasn't when they missed the playoffs two years ago, but when they made the playoffs last year.

I still believe the Patriots are a declining club, but with a 5-2 record they keep finding ways to win. They still needed a blocked FG to get pass the lowly Jets.

Will the Jaguars winning (and convincingly over the Browns 24-6), the Raiders are the remaining winless club. Coincidently, they play the Browns next week. The Raiders remaining schedule includes only 2 teams with records currently below .500 (at St. Louis, home vs the Bills). Not saying they won't win a game, but the thought did cross my mind.

Chargers - Bills Thoughts

Stop Antonio Gates and you stop the Chargers. That seemed to be what I was reading about the Bills game plan going in to this weeks match up with the Chargers. Gates recorded only 1 catch for 8 yards, but slot receiver Eddie Royal caught 2 TDs. I thought (and a lot of experts did also) that the Chargers would go more to a 2 TE set this year, but so far this season they've mostly gone 3-WR. Against the Bills, the Chargers went to the 2-TE formation enough for 2nd TE LaDarius Green to lead the team with 4 catches. Rivers also proved you can't just sit on the shallow routes...he hit Malcom Floyd for two 49 yarders that set up two scores.

On the Chargers 1st series Danny Woodhead was carted off the field. According to CBS Sports, Woodhead will undergo season-ending surgery. This after losing Ryan Mathews in Week 2. Whether the Chargers had plans to work Donald Brown more into the offense or not, he is now going to be main ball carrier for San Diego. Behind Brown is undrafted free agent Branden Oliver. At 5'7", 208 lbs., Oliver is built a lot like Woodhead,, but is more a one-cut, between the tackles runner. He's a good pass blocker, but hasn't shown good receiving skills. I think he's a good backup for Brown, but he's not going to replace Woodhead's skill set. I expect the Chargers to go after someone to add depth at RB, but the question is who?

Brown gained just 62 yards on 31 carries against the Bills. I know that Buffalo's front seven is stout, but 2.0 yards per carry is pretty pathetic. Hopefully it was just an off game for Brown, who still was productive, catching 5 for 27 yards to finish with 89 total yards from scrimmage. No way Brown, who had never had more that 18 carries in a game, will see 31 carries again this season. With a week of practice, the Chargers will utilize Oliver more.

Thought the offense got too conservative after they went up 20-10. Luckily the defense stepped up and shut Buffalo out in the 4th quarter. They put good pressure on EJ Manual getting a sack and a safety on an intentional grounding call. I thought the Chargers might have trouble containing Manual with Melvin Ingram out, but Dwight Freeney, Kendell Ruiz, and Corey Luiget each recorded a sack.

Last season, the Chargers were giving up 100 yard receiving games to wide receivers almost every week. So far this season they've held Sammy Watkins to 2 catches 19 yards and Percy Harvin to 1 catch 15 yds (leading receivers: Buffalo - CJ Spllier 3-37, Seattle - Jermaine Kearse 4-61) They did give up 5-119 to Michael Floyd in Week 1, but shut out Larry Fitzgerald. Overall, I would say that's an improvement over last year.

Up coming is a stretch of very winnable games for the Chargers (Jaguars, Jets, @Oakland, Chiefs) all ahead of the first match up against the Broncos in Denver. Chargers were very erratic last year because they very dependent on the offense to hold the ball to protect a very suspect defense. While this years' defense has been better, I don't know if they're good enough to win games yet. Charger fans will have a month of football to find out.

Thoughts This Week (NFL Week 1 addition)

According to SI, Antonio Gates restructured his contract to free up $1.5 million in salary cap space for the Chargers. Gates has two years left on the 6-year, $39 million contract he signed in 2010. He was due $5 million this season, but $3 million was converted to a salary bonus. My question is why now? Do the Chargers need to free up money to make a trade? That would be unusual so early in the year, but I can't think of any other reason why this would be done now.

No link for this one...the Ray Rice story is all over the net. All I'm going to say about it is that justice is finally served. That video takes away any shadow of a doubt that anyone may have had.

Monday Night Football: Kinda hate these double headers...luckily I don't live on the East Coast. Chargers 18-17 lost to the Cardinals was so disappointing on many levels. Phillip Rivers wasn't sharp. Players dropped potential first downs and interceptions. Critical mistakes; an interception, blown coverage to hand the Cards 3 points at the half and a botched snap to take the Chargers out of FG range at the end of the game. Defense couldn't step up to make one play in the Cardinals last two drives...Carson Palmer throws only 1 incomplete pass in those two drives (and it was a sure INT that was dropped) and never got sacked. Still Rivers had 2:25 left and 2 timeouts...and it ends on a dropped passed. Yea, I know it was tipped, but Keenan Allen had both hands on the ball and couldn't hold on. Difference between losing teams and winning teams is the winners find a way to make positive plays and limit negative ones...in a 1 point game only a few of those plays would have made the difference.

Bright spots for the Chargers were the two defensive rookies picked 1-2 by the Chargers in the draft. Jason Verrett held his own against the big Arizona receivers. Jerry Attaochu didn't play a lot, but it seemed like every time he was on the field he made an impact on the game. He made great plays in kick coverage, blocked a punt, and got the strip/sack on Palmer. This Chargers may not be great at getting a team ready early in the season, but their first two drafts have produced 4 potential stars (D.J. Fluker, Keenan Allen last year).

A co-worker and I were discussing all these so-so performances. Tom Brady, Nick Foles took a half to finally get going, even Peyton Manning wasn't sharp. Tony Romo looked terrible in the first half. We wondered if it could be that teams aren't preparing enough in the preseason (they're shorter now and teams are afraid their starters will get hurt). Almost none of the starters play any in the last preseason game. Chargers starters at most played a quarter of the "dress rehearsal" 3rd preseason game and only a series in the previous two. No starter that I remember played in the 4th game. Rivers and the Chargers as a team weren't sharp...even Antonio Gates was dropping passes. Would be interesting to find out how many minutes the teams that played well (Seahawks, Falcons/Saints - at least the offenses, Vikings, Lions) played their starters.

Bulldog over at Nothing If Not Random posted his preseason picks and mentioned the stat that 4-5 teams, on average, make the playoffs that didn't make it the previous season...of course that means 4-5 teams that made it last season don't make it back. Call this 1 game overreaction, but could one of those teams be the Patriots? Sooner or later the mighty have to fall. Could it be this year? Lets imagine the Viks and Lions are for real and it's not a 1 game aberration. Pats go to Minnesota next week and play the Lions in Week 12. They also play the Bengals and Broncos at home and have to go to Green Bay and Indy. Lets image they lose all those games...that's 6 losses and still have the rematch against Miami in Week 15. Can the Pats go 9-7 and miss the playoffs? I would say that's a one game overreaction, but if they lose next week in Minnesota...

It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine the Chiefs and Chargers missing the playoffs this year...that would account for the AFC teams. The NFC is a lot tougher to see a team not repeating. Falcons missed the playoffs last year and made a strong case that they'll be in this year...but who would be out? Packers lost in Week 1, but the Seahawks treat most teams that visit Seattle badly. Arizona was a 10-6 team last year and missed post season play, so they are a strong candidate to make it, but again who's out? Could it be the Saints? Saints and Packers are the only playoff teams to lose in Week 1. Before the season started I thought the Panthers would be one of the teams that miss out, but then they go and win a game with their backup QB at the helm. This was the team that everyone said had no WRs or RBs to help Cam Newton.

How many of you fantasy players have put in for Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Hurns?

Lions adopted the Saints offense this year and Week 1 they did a pretty good Saints imitation. That was an impressive offensive showing. Calvin Johnson is...well Calvin Johnson. Seeing him lineup against DBs...the size difference is alarming...and the guy can leap over tall buildings and is faster than a speeding bullet. Now Detroit has Golden Tate and Reggie Bush playing the role of Darren Sproles. If Stafford holds up his end this could finally be the year for the Lions.

When are the Indianapolis Colts going to admit they made a big mistake in acquiring Trent Richardson? The guy runs hard, but looks slow and doesn't change direction very well. Colts seem blindly committed to this guy for some reason.

After week 1, the #1 RB in fantasy football is Knowshon Moreno and will likely be the starting RB in Miami the rest of the season...how many of you predicted that? Please, drop your hands, I know your lying.

I won't go into why, because you know why, but Justin Forsett will be the #1 most picked up player in Fantasy Football this week.